Giving invaluable advice is what we do and all you do is sit there eating your cranberry bran muffin and reading it. Over a hundred of you subscribe to the feed, over 2,000 of you stop by daily. As Juan Encarncion might say, “I can’t see you, but I know you’re there.” Without you, it wouldn’t be half the fun. Okay, maybe it would be half the fun, but definitely not three-quarters of the fun. So to repay me, I’m letting you help me with my keeper team. Caveats you must know:
It’s a NL-only ten team, five player max keeper, standard $260 budget. Scoring categories are: Offensively -- Home Runs, OBP, Runs, RBIs, Sbs, Total Bases. Pitching – ERA, Innings, Strikeouts Minus Walks, Saves, Wins, WHIP. I refuse to pay more than $30 for any single player and no more than $100 total on my pitching staff. It’s my oldest keeper league and the winner gets close to two grand, so, ya know, pay attention. Onto the keeper letter to you:
You,
First off, great reading of my site! In the last two years, I’ve traded away Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Shane Victorino and Hanley Ramirez for nothing. There might be more numbskulled moves, but I’m drunk trying to dull the pain of past blunders. Guess you can also see why I’m soliciting advice. Can’t do much worse! So going into 2008, I have few options. Not “a” few, just few. For $29, I’m keeping Matt Holliday. This is a bargain in our league, or any for that matter. Plus, he falls below my imaginary Mason-Dixon $30 line. Now for the cream of the rest of my crap:
Pedro Martinez at $11. I think he’s got 130 inning/10 wins/ 3.35/good Ks-BB/good WHIP. This seems like a no-brainer to me for $11, but I have my doubts and may wait until spring training’s assessment of the number three man on the Mets.
Jose Valverde at $10. I wish I was able to convince myself not to keep him, but at $10 I’m having a hard time. He’s a nightmare when he explodes, Berkman’s all but said he’s not welcome and I don’t like paying $10 for any closer. I think he could get 35 saves and decent peripherals, but I’m not sold.
Jeff Francis at $12. I don’t think there’s an argument available that could convince me to keep Francis for $12. Believe I can toss him back and not pay more than $10 if I want him again, which I’m not totally against.
Yorvit Torreabla at $5. I’ve sung my praises already for Torreabla. Probably had nice things to say because I’m trying to convince myself he’s worth $5. I’ll probably keep him since I’d like to have catching squared by the draft because the next “great” NL catcher available at the draft may be LoDuca. LoNoThankYou.
Kevin Frandsen at $5. He intrigues me. In little September time as Durham got the bench, Frandsen hit 5 homers and stole 4 bases. Unfortunately, his minors’ numbers say to expect less and he has a lot of minors’ numbers, since he’ll be 26 in May. Still for $5; I might take a flier. Any Giants fans out there that could shed some light on this slap hitter with no speed?
John Patterson at $5. I think I can get him back for close to $5. There you have it; my team sucks.
Yours, Me
P.S. When’s Bo Bice’s new album coming out? Can’t wait!
Going through this list really depressed me. If anyone has any thoughts, please comment below, until then…
You want to know where to draft the top twenty catchers – here. While you’re at it, here’s the top twenty 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops. Also, our Player Rater for 2007 is here to give you some prospective. But, really, the position that has you here is the top twenty outfielders for 2008. Without further ado:
1. Matt Holliday – See our top ten overall where Holliday ranked fourth. 2. Grady Sizemore – See our top twenty overall where Sizemore ranked 13th.
3. Carl Crawford – See our top twenty overall where Crawford ranked 14th.
4. Alfonso Soriano – He’s 16th overall, see his projections here.
5. Carlos Lee – 17th overall, see his projections here.
6. Alexis Rios – I went out on a limb and placed him 18th overall, see why here.
7. Vladimir Guerrero – 19th overall, see why here.
8. Nick Markakis – I obviously love Markakis as I admitted here. Miguel Tejada left the Greek God of Roto, so what now? Well, he didn’t have him for thirty games last year and actually hit better during that time. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go above and beyond these numbers.
9. Carlos Beltran – I don’t know how he’s been able to make everyone look the other way, but Beltran is a .270 hitter with 25/20 skills. Good, but he’s not a top twenty overall player where he usually gets drafted. Maybe it’s his resemblance to Ricky from My So Called Life. Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18 10. B.J. Upton – See the top twenty 2nd basemen for his projections.
11. Ichiro Suzuki – The new manager of the Mariners, John McLaren, challenged Ichiro to hit .400, steal 80 bases and a staring contest. Ok, I made up the staring contest. I’ve never had Ichiro on a team. I stay away from guys whose number one benefit is a high average. More than likely, you only need a .280 average for your team to finish in the top three in your league. What, are you gonna turn your average points up to an eleven? But there is a place for Ichiro on a fantasy team, if coupled with Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus and Chris B. Young. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
13. Bobby Abreu – I rode Abreu’s second half last year to a title in one of my more important leagues, so maybe I’m prejudice. Then again, I rode Braun, Peavy and a host of others. Anyway, Abreu’s in a good lineup for runs and RBIs and won’t kill you in home runs and average while chipping in decent steals. I’m a believer. Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
14. Curtis Granderson – In the same post about why I like Markakis, I broke down why I didn’t like Granderson. He’s too much of a free swinger for my taste, so I won’t have him on my teams, unless he falls way down from where I’ve been seeing him get drafted. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25 15. Adam Dunn – Go ahead and guess Dunn’s age? Wrong, he’s only 28 for the ’08 season. It’s the 320 lbs. that confuses people. I’ll probably get reamed for putting Dunn this high, but follow along, he’s got a great eye and he’s hitting 40 homers and getting 100 runs and RBIs without question and he chips in some steals. Also, as players get older, their averages tend to get better. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
16. Eric Byrnes – Let me start by saying, I’m not drafting Byrnes this year. He’ll be overvalued/rated. But if the hype gets high enough on him, maybe the tide will shift and he’ll be underrated by draft time. (I’m seeing this begin with Braun in the reverse direction. Everyone started very high on Braun for ’08, and now people have begun to get cold on him.) I think Byrnes can get you decent numbers, just don’t draft him thinking you’re getting more than last year. You will get less. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
17. Torii Hunter – Torii landed on a good team for running and a crappy team for offense. (Celebrity Deathmatch: Billy Beane (the straight one) vs. Mike Scioscia) The word on the streets of The OC is Torii is going to be protecting Vlad. Well, who’s going to be protecting Double I? The Rally Monkey? Either way, I think Torii’s good for 20/20, act accordingly. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
18. Magglio Ordonez – Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second. He’s not a bad hitter; he’s just not going to hit .363 again. Since so much of his value last year was tied to his high average, be very careful drafting him. Projections: 100/30/110/.300
19. Corey Hart – He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
20. Brad Hawpe/Ryan Spilborghs – With only twenty outfielders listed (will do a second half to the outfielders at a later date), I wanted to reach a bit for number 20. Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5
After the top twenty, many obviously, but one name to absolutely avoid:
Jason Bay – I broke down various reasons to avoid him here. You may feel like he’s a bargain coming off a bad year, but he’s doesn’t run anymore, his lineup protection is from hunger and he compares to Bobby Higginson. Do I have to say more? Projections: crap/crap/and more crap.
But let’s end on a positive note. Someone I’m absolutely giddy about:
Shane Victorino – Last month I wrote about Victorino here. He’s Eric Byrnes seven rounds later. You’re welcome. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
Tomorrow, the top twenty starting pitchers to draft.
In 2007, Jake Peavy was the top overall player according to our player rater with Alex Rodriguez coming in a close second. Of course, pitching is less reliable, so looking ahead to your 2008 fantasy baseball draft, how should you draft? Here’s my top 10. Tomorrow, 11 thru 20.
1. Alex Rodriguez – Maybe you despise his natural ability, maybe the New York Media has convinced you he’s not as good as you think, but his worst season of the last five seasons was in 2006 when he gave you 113/35/121/.290/15. If he gives you those numbers again, he’s not causing you to lose your fantasy league. There’s safety in Arod, no matter what you feel about him personally. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – He placed only twenty-three on our player rater last year, but finding 30 home runs later in the draft will be easier than finding 30 steals. With Reyes’s 70 steals, you won’t have to worry about steals later. Projections: 130/14/70/.295/70 3. Albert Pujols – His numbers last year were down, definitely. They were still 99/32/103/.327/2. His lineup doesn’t look any better going into 2008, but his lineup wasn’t very good in 2006 when he carried his team to the World Series. He’s a tremendous talent that is still only 28 (in Latin years that may be 35, but that’s a different discussion). Projections: 110/40/115/.330/2 4. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Remember what Helton used to do in his prime years? But Holliday won’t hit .340 again. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/7
5. David Wright – The Mets love to run and it doesn’t appear like Wright is slowing down just yet. 30 steals might be asking a lot, but there’s a good chance his power will continue to grow. Projection: 115/34/120/.310/20 6. Hanley Ramirez – He’s a talent, no doubt. But his offseason shoulder surgery is something to be aware of. He’s not higher on this list because of reasons stated here. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45 7. Jake Peavy – Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, the best pitcher currently in the game. If you have balls to take him first or second, I can’t argue with it. I’m ball-less. Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
8. Miguel Cabrera – He’s a hitting savant and he’s on Trimspa. The change of leagues doesn’t worry me, as it will be negated by the more than legit lineup now surrounding him. Projections: 110/35/125/.315/4
10. Prince Fielder – Case could be made for a lot of people in this slot. Johan Santana, Ryan Braun, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, Brandon Webb, but they’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the eleven to twenty rankings. Prince is young, is a safe pick to repeat last year’s monster season and has a huge backside upside. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
If you've ever seen the ESPN Player Rater (or, for that matter, other quantitative player rankings for fantasy baseball), you've likely asked yourself:
How could there be so many starting pitchers at the top? (13 in top 20, 19 in top 30) Is that valid or just faulty weighting?
This looks even more peculiar when reviewing qualitative rankings (i.e., someone subjectively lists players) or reviewing pre-draft rankings.
Before creating our own Player Rater, our assumption was that the preponderance of starters in the top ranks of ESPN’s Player Rater was due to faulty methodology versus the true value of starters vs. hitters.
So it came as a mild surprise to find that 12 of our top 20 were starters (and we also agreed with ESPN that JJ Putz deserved top 20 inclusion). We were somewhat relieved when there were only 2 starters in the 21-30 ranks so our 14 out of the top 30 was less than ESPN.
But those were gut reactions. Now that we’ve gone through the exercise, is their truth to ESPN’s (and our) pitcher-heavy top of the rankings? Are they eerily prescient or is this a broken clock scenario?
[It's important to differentiate this exercise - the proper valuing of player statistics - versus the projection of future statistics that are done by folks like Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler and are used for drafting purposes. Their analysis has shown that projecting hitter stats is more accurate than pitchers stats which makes hitters less risky for drafting. While it's extremely rare to see top 10 draft results with more than 2 pitchers, this does NOT mean pitchers are less valuable. That is based on a risk/value assessment - our analysis just focuses on the 'value' part of the equation.]
We’re going to look at this as two separate subquestions: 2A) Should there be a lot of starters in the final season top 20? & 2B) Is ESPN’s ranking of starting pitchers correct?
For question 2A, let’s first look at the players in our top 20 as well as that of ESPN. We shared 19 of the same 20 players, albeit in different order. Ours includes David Ortiz at #19 while they have Cole Hamels included at #20. (Still, agreeing so much with ESPN feels unclean.)
Our Ranking. Name - Pos (ESPN Ranking)
1. Jake Peavy - SP (2)
2. Alex Rodriguez - 3B (1)
3. C.C. Sabathia - SP (3)
4. Johan Santana - SP (4)
5. Matt Holliday - OF (8)
6. Hanley Ramirez - SS (7)
7. Brandon Webb - SP (6)
8. Josh Beckett - SP (5)
9. Magglio Ordonez - OF (11)
10. John Lackey - SP (9)
11. Jimmy Rollins - SS (14)
12. David Wright - 3B (15)
13. Erik Bedard - SP (13)
14. J.J. Putz - RP (10)
15. Aaron Harang - SP (12)
16. Dan Haren - SP (16)
17. Fausto Carmona - SP (19)
18. John Smoltz - SP (18)
19. David Ortiz - 1B (22)
20. Javier Vazquez - SP (17)
22. Cole Hamels - SP (20)
To understand the impact of each category on these players’ total points, we looked at the mean and median points per category for the 13 starters and 6 hitters (excluding Putz).
Category: Mean; Median
R: 4.4; 3.1
HR: 5.1; 3.1
RBI: 4.9; 2.0
SB: 3.5; 0.4
AVG: 5.3; 2.4
W: 4.4; 4.9
SV: -0.3; -0.3
ERA: 4.8; 5.4
WHIP: 4.4; 4.8
SO: 4.4; 4.8
While the means per category looks very consistent across the hitting vs. pitcher stats (aside from Saves), the medians per category are smaller for hitter stats. This is because even the greatest hitters are rarely great in any more than 2-3 categories. While the numbers may average out high, it’s because some players dominate the category (HR=ARod) and others are merely very good or good. A-Rod led the majors in R, HR and RBI but was outside the top 20 in Average and SB. Hanley Ramirez was top 10 in R, SB and AVG but outside the top 20 in HR and top 50 in RBI. David Wright’s isn’t in the top 10 for any category - his true value is being very good across the board. David Ortiz wouldn’t steal a base if you stuffed it with pork and deep-fried it.
Looking at the top 20 in batting average, only 5 of these players were in the top 20 for HRs (Holliday, Ortiz, Pujols, Wright, and M. Cabrera). (Note: Braun didn’t have enough ABs to qualify for average but was in top 20 for HRs)
The best pitchers, on the other hand, tend to be great or at least very good in all four categories. Looking at the top 20 in the MLB for Wins, Strikeouts, and ERA, there are 19 pitchers who are in at least two of the categories – 5 of those pitchers (Peavy, Webb, Lackey, Sabathia, and Beckett) are in the top 20 across all three.
This leads to a rather straightforward theory - starters are more likely to populate the top 20 in a player rater because the top pitchers tend to get high points in all the categories where hitters only have a couple categories where they are great.
We tested this larger theory of “pitching stats are more connected” by doing a correlation analysis on all the hitters and starters to see how closely the performance in one stat is correlated with another.
A perfect 100% would mean that the stats are absolutely correlated – say, purchases at a store and a store’s sales tax receipts (every $1 in purchases would be x% in taxes). A -100% would mean that the stats are completely inverse – say, the amount of total salary a baseball team can afford and their likelihood of picking up Jose Lima.
Below are the results of the correlation analysis.
Analysis:
90-100%
80-89% HR/RBI, ERA/WHIP
70-79%
60-69% R/RBI, W/K
50-59% R/HR, W/ERA, K/ERA, K/WHIP
40-49% R/SB, R/AVG, W/WHIP
30-39% RBI/AVG
20-29%
10-19% HR/AVG, SB/AVG
0-9%
Negative HR/SB, RBI/SB, all stats with saves for starters
Let’s start with the highest correlating stats for hitters and pitchers: HR/RBI and ERA/WHIP. The fact that these stats correlate highest should be rather self-evident.
Those that do well in HR and RBI correlate positively with Runs but poorly with SB and AVG. There is barely any correlation on HR/AVG and a mild one for RBI/AVG (which makes sense since it does require hits generally to drive in runs). SBs are negatively correlated to HR and RBI - not a surprise to anyone who has ever drafted Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik, or Willy Taveras.
Runs prove to be an interesting category as, besides HR/RBI, they also correlate well with SBs and AVG. This is likely due to high SB and AVG players being on base a lot, at the top of the lineup, and getting driven in by the HR/RBI guys.
So what we tend to have are two types of valuable hitters: Power/middle of the lineup guys who provide strong R/HR/RBI or Speed/top of the lineup guys who provide strong R/SB/AVG. Players like Magglio Ordonez hitting .360 while providing solid power numbers or Hanley Ramirez providing 29 home runs while providing great R/SB/AVG numbers are the EXCEPTIONS and not the rule.
With ERA/WHIP, these stats positively correlate at 40-60% with Wins and K’s. While there are those that do well in just one of these categories (say Wang in Wins or Kazmir in K’s, alliteration unintentional), a great starter doing well in most, if not all the categories, is more common than with hitters. Since there are more successful 3-4 category pitchers vs hitters (where you generally have to tradeoff strengths with weaknesses like Ichiro’s R/SB/AVG vs. HR/RBI), it makes sense that starters are disproportionately valuable.
The final point here – which was covered in the Peavy vs. A-Rod comparison - is the fact that starting pitchers have more influence over a team’s total stats than a hitter. This is particularly true in ERA and WHIP where a top starter may represent around 20% of your innings. Compare this to a hitter who is lucky to represent 8-9% of your ABs.
An illustrative comparison is looking at the stats of the 20th player in our rater – Javier Vazquez. His stat line of 15W/3.74/1.14/213K looks pretty good but what would the equivalent be in value for a hitter? If we link up Runs to Wins, HR to ERA, RBI to K’s, SBs to SV, and AVG to WHIP, our model would require a 120/21/137/0/.345 hitter. (fyi, if you want to see how SBs would play a role, switching the SB and AVG values would net .278 and 36 SBs)
So the answer to Question 2A is yes. We do feel that starters for any particular season should represent a majority of the top 20 value slots – unless, of course, a breed of power/speed guys start cropping up that rack up RBIs and don’t suck at AVG (see Mike Cameron, Chris B. Young).
On to Question #2B, is ESPN’s ranking of starting pitchers correct?
Let’s take a look at the pitchers just outside the top 20 in ESPN’s Player Rater and compare them to our totals.
ESPN Rank - Player Name – Our Rank
20 - C. Hamels - 22
21 - J. Verlander - 26
23 - K. Escobar - 36
24 - T. Lilly - 34
27 - J. Shields - 43
28 - T. Hudson - 42
29 - S. Kazmir – 55
Scott Kazmir’s stat line of 13W/3.48/1.38/239Ks netted him 3.25/3.58/2.55/4.98 in ESPN Player Rater points for a total of 14.36. Turning that into percentages, we’re looking at 22% for Wins, 25% for ERA, 18% for WHIP, and 35% for K’s.
In our rater, Scott Kazmir had 10.5 points that netted him 2.2/3.2/-1.4/6.8 or 21% for Wins, 31% for ERA, -14% for WHIP, and 64.5% for K’s.
Why the negative in WHIP? Because the Best Available Option (BAO) pitcher had a WHIP of 1.32 which bests Kazmir’s 1.38. His WHIP hurts your team, but you’ll take it because he does well in the other stats – especially K’s where he’s truly excellent.
The Kazmir comparison highlights several flaws in ESPN’s ranking of pitchers:
1) Capping High Points at 5 – Kazmir’s contribution in strikeouts has a greater impact on a team than, say, A-Rod’s run total. Treating them both at around 5 distorts Kazmir’s one special thing. It’s as if he’s Dirk Diggler and his “one special thing” has been shortened a couple of inches. (We’ll explore this concept further in another post – the capping, not fictional schlongs.)
2) Positive ERA/WHIP Contributions Are Undercredited – Kazmir’s 206.2 IP at a 3.48 ERA warrants slightly more credit than ESPN doles out since it is well below the BAO ERA of 3.96. If you estimate Kazmir represents between 1/6 and 1/7 of a team’s innings (figure 4 more starters = 800 IP, 4 relievers = 300 IP, total of 1300 IP which is about 1/6.5 of Kazmir’s total), that 0.48 difference in ERA nets out to about a 0.07-0.08 drop in team ERA. This is equivalent to the impact of a player hitting about .337 or driving in 116 RBIs. (This concept is also covered in the A-Rod vs. Peavy post.)
3) Negative Contributions Aren’t Penalized – Kazmir’s WHIP of 1.38 is below the 1.32 WHIP of the Best Available Option pitcher (the top FA starter if the best 50 starters and 40 relievers were taken). How could this net positive points? He’s hurting your team. The WHIP is a tradeoff for his other stats. It’s like going out with a girl because she’s hot AND crazy instead of because she’s hot and IN SPITE of the fact she’s crazy. This ‘tradeoff’ cost is also present in counting stats for second-tier pitchers like C. Wang (gets less than average strikeouts) or Chris "Tall San Diego Pitcher" Young (his 9 wins are less than average).
A 4th issue related to #3 – the overcrediting of slightly above average performance - is more apparent with Ted Lilly’s ERA (3.83 vs BAO 3.96) and WHIP (1.14 vs. BAO 1.32). While Lilly’s ERA should get some positive credit, it is not worth nearly as much as his WHIP. ESPN’s system doesn’t value the two that differently - Lilly with 3.12 points in ERA and 4.30 in WHIP. On the other hand, we credit Lilly with 1.3 ERA points and 4.8 WHIP points.
The summary of all these ESPN Player Rater flaws is the following:
Wins – Slightly undercredits great performance (issue #1), Doesn’t penalize below average performance (issue #3)
ERA – Undercredits great ERAs, overcredits slightly above average to bad ERAs
WHIP - Undercredits great WHIPs, overcredits slightly above average to bad WHIPs
Strikeouts – Similar to Wins but more pronounced.
For the pitchers in the top 20, these effects are minor – Harang and Vazquez are slightly inflated given their so-so ERAs, Carmona is deflated given his great ERA (3.06), Beckett and Webb switch places because Webb’s ERA superiority trumps Beckett’s 2 extra wins. Outside the top 20, the results become more pronounced since issues #3 and #4 play a greater role in the distorted value.
Thus the verdict for Question #2B - is ESPN’s ranking of starting pitchers correct? The answer is no. Their rater does a fair job at the top, but it gets continually distorted as you move outside the top 20 players because it doesn’t properly penalize mediocre to below average performance.
(Note: Unfortunately, the ESPN Player Rater's improper penalizing of below average performance has a lot in common with the internal review of Baseball Tonight anchors - please tell me John Kruk, Orestes Destrade and Eric Young aren’t coming back...)
Come March, when you’re preparing for your draft and trying to decide between pitchers, you can avoid the above mistakes by just comparing the two pitchers’ projected stats and credit a point for each of the following increments: 1.5 Wins = 0.19 ERA = 0.04 WHIP = 18 Ks. Might take a little more calculating but it could be the difference between taking Jeremy Bonderman over John Lackey (that decision still haunts me from last year...)
Anyone who played ESPN 2007 Fantasy Baseball last year probably had two lingering questions throughout the season:
1) Did the ESPN employees responsible for the database crash that screwed up the first two weeks’ worth of 2007 stats befall a fate worse than Harold “Harass is one word?” Reynolds (rarely insightful on Baseball Tonight but he’s like Peter F*in’ Gammons compared to replacement ex-2B Eric Young)?
2) Is the ESPN Player Rater completely incorrect or just mostly incorrect?
While we wait to see if Outside the Lines' Bob Ley or the ESPN Ombudslady answer our repeated requests for answers on question #1, we took on the challenge of question #2.
Now you may ask, “Is this a valuable exercise beyond the joy in potentially proving ESPN wrong?” Fair question. The answer is a resounding yes. One of the greatest challenges with Fantasy Baseball is determining how to compare the value of players and their statistical contributions – any idiot could tell you that A-Rod and Peavy were the best hitter and pitcher respectively but was Matt Holliday more valuable than Jimmy Rollins? Understanding the value of each of the statistics – ESPECIALLY in non-counting stats like batting average, ERA, and WHIP – helps from the draft throughout the season as rosters are juggled, free agent options are considered, and trade offers are mulled. (That being said, proving ESPN wrong was a motivating factor.)
In no particular order, here are some of the questions we have on the 2007 season that we don’t believe ESPN Player Rater correctly answers (based on 5x5 MLB Universe):
1) Who is more valuable: A-Rod (best hitter) vs. Peavy (best player)?
2) How could there be so many starting pitchers at the top? (13 in top 20, 19 in top 30) Is that valid or just faulty weighting?
3) ESPN creates a floor and ceiling of 0 (floor) and 5 (ceiling) for points per category. Does this misrepresent the contribution (or lack thereof) of players and what is the impact on player rankings? For example, how is Jose Reyes’ amazin’ 78 SBs worth the same amount of points as Josh Beckett’s merely impressive 20 wins? How is Richie Sexson’s horrific .205 batting average worth the same amount as Todd Helton’s sloth-like 0 SBs?
4) How is it possible that relievers J.J. Putz and Rafael Betancourt are worth more for ERA and WHIP than top starters like C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Brandon Webb when these relievers pitch about 1/3 of the innings as the starters?
5) Shouldn’t players at shallower positions receive bonus points – e.g, are Hanley Ramirez’s stats at SS more valuable than A-Rod’s stats for 3B?
To tackle these questions, we created our own Player Rater. See attached for the rankings and notes on the methodology we used. The methodology is nerdy and quasi-scientific - with heavy conceptual influence from Baseball Prospectus, Bill James, and other leaders in the field – but you could skip all the mathy stuff and just look at the rankings if you like.
We will answer these questions – and potentially others - over several posts. Let’s start off with the first one…
1) Who is more valuable: A-Rod (best hitter) vs. Peavy (best pitcher)?
ESPN has A-Rod #1 and Jake Peavy #2 by the slimmest of margins – 19.8 to 19.75. This order is in line with popular opinion. I’m sure if you were to do a ‘hindsight draft’ - whereby you draft based on 2007 stats – that Scott Boras’s wet dream would be picked #1 almost every time. There’s a much greater chance Peavy would go #3 or later than #1.
But is this some type of hitter/East Coast bias vs. pitcher/West Coast bias? Well, let’s look at how ESPN calculated the point totals:
A-Rod: Runs = 5, HR = 5, RBI = 5, SB=1.54, AVG=3.26 Peavy: K = 5, W = 4.75, SV = 0, ERA = 5, WHIP = 5
A-Rod led the majors in R/HR/RBI to earn the three category max of 15 points. His above average 24 SBs and .314 AVG netted him another 4.8 points. Peavy had a possible max of 20 points since Bud Black inexplicably turned to Trevor Hoffman to close games and was a win short of getting all 20 (should’ve showed up in that one-game playoff, Jake). So, maybe that’s it. Even the best starting pitchers can only contribute in 4 categories so a great 5-category hitter is more valuable.
What do our rankings say? It says Mr. Peavy is #1 by a healthy margin – 29.4 to 26.2 points. I’ll admit it – we were surprised too. Let’s look at our point allocations by category to explain it:
A-Rod: Runs = 4.9, HR = 8.3, RBI = 6.8, SB=3.2, AVG=3.0 Peavy: K = 6.8, W = 6.2, SV = -0.3, ERA = 9.3, WHIP = 7.4
This comparison is as good an opportunity as any to go over our methodological basis for crediting points (skip over if you’re mathphobic):
Rather than using a 0-5 point scale per category, we mirrored the VORP concept from Baseball Prospectus and created composite stats for what would be the best available option (BAO) at each position – e.g., what are the stats of the 11th best catcher who’d be the next best option post-draft. We then created a team full of these BAOs (kind of like a fantasy expansion team – hell, a team with Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun is much better than the MLB variety) and averaged their stats to create the BAO hitter and BAO pitcher.
We then took the team totals of our ESPN league to come up with relevant increments to award points. Our method would credit players with positive points if they performed above the BAO in a stat and negative points if they performed below (example: Magglio Ordonez was worth 7.7 AVG points while Richie Sexson was worth -4.6 points)
The increments were based on the standard deviation between our 10 teams’ totals which came out to roughly 1-2% of the average team’s total for R, HR, RBI, K, and W. SB and SV turned out around 4% of the average because team totals in these stats tend to be more widely distributed than the other counting stats (related to few players contributing the lion’s share of points – another way of explaining this is to consider the impact of 5 Wins vs. SBs and SVs on your league’s rankings. Wins would prove more valuable.). Lastly, the ratio stats – AVG, ERA, and WHIP – are around 0.5% of the average team’s total as there is much smaller % change between players (e.g., a great hitter hits .350, a bad hitter .250. That’s only a 40% difference. A-Rod hit 150% more HRs than fellow MVP candidate Mike Lowell)
These standard deviations were arbitrarily divided by 6 to create more point differential between players. For ratios, the team totals were multiplied up to reflect an individual player’s impact on the total – so a hitter would have to hit .0144 better than the BAO (assuming all 13 hitters had the same # of ABs) to raise the team’s average by the required .0011.
Lastly, we compared each player to two different types of BAOs: one specific to their position and one general (hitter or pitcher). These results were averaged together and helped to account for the fact that a BAO 1st baseman offers better stats than a BAO catcher so, all stats equal, the catcher is a more valuable hitter. (This topic will be further explored in another post. We’ve only got so much material to stretch over the offseason.)
So now let’s look at Runs vs. K’s to see this methodology in action. These make a good comparison in that the average team totals for these stats (based on our ESPN league) are nearly equal: 1150 runs and 1148 Ks.
A-Rod and Peavy led the majors in these categories (143 Rs and 240 Ks respectively) so ESPN credits each with 5 points. But the BAO hitter (who looks almost exactly like Luis Gonzalez’s stat line of .278/70/15/68/6) had 67 runs where the BAO pitcher (who looks closest to Carlos Villanueva’s season of 8 Ws/1 SV/3.94/1.35/99 K over 114 IP) had 101 K’s.
(Note: That may seem low for K’s but here’s a few other starting pitchers b/w 90 and 110 K’s that certainly saw some fantasy roster space during the season: C. Wang, G. Maddux, B. Sheets, C. Schilling, M. Mussina, J. Marquis)
So A-Rod had 76 more Runs than the BAO hitter and Peavy had 139 K’s more than the BAO in a category where teams had virtually the same average total. Another way of looking at it is that Peavy’s total would represent 20.9% of the average team’s total where A-Rod’s runs would be 12.4%.
The larger differential and impact of Peavy’s K’s vs. A-Rod’s runs are slightly curbed by the fact that Runs have a lower standard deviation which leads to crediting a point for 15.1 runs and 18.1 K’s. This nets out to 4.9 points for A-Rod’s Runs vs. 6.8 for Peavy’s K’s.
Peavy’s impact on Wins is similar to his impact in K’s and A-Rod’s HR and RBI totals net him 8.3 and 6.8 points respectively. His 24 SBs net him 3.2 points. (If anything, the ESPN total screws him – how could 24 SBs be worth only 1.5 points of 5 points, with 0 SBs equaling 0 points, given the average team only had 162 SBs?)
So it all comes down to the ratio stats (AVG, ERA, WHIP) to determine the winner.
Let’s look at A-Rod’s AVG first. To determine the impact, we start with a lineup made exclusively of BAO hitters. This group hits .2772. If we replace one BAO with A-Rod, the average goes up to .2806 – a difference of 0.0034. In addition, A-Rod had 583 ABs compared to our BAO’s 482 ABs. So A-Rod’s average has a greater impact than just 1/13th (it becomes worth about 1/11th). To account for this, we multiply his points by his # of ABs / BAO ABs (1.2). After accounting for the fact that the 3B BAO hits for a slightly higher average (.279), A-Rod’s batting average nets him 2.8 points.
Now let’s look at Peavy’s MLB-leading 2.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Adding him to a BAO team (5 starters + 4 relievers with removing a BAO composite of the two) changes the team ERA/WHIP from 3.960/1.315 to 3.719/1.272. This is a net decrease of 0.241 in ERA and 0.043 in WHIP.
How huge is this? Well, looking at our league, this would be the number of points gained in ERA by deducting .241 (1 team – 5 pts, 2 teams – 4 pts, 2 teams – 3 pts, 3 teams - 2 pts, 1 team – 1 pt, 1 team – 0 pts). If you factor in that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams had a maximum of 0, 1 , and 2 points to gain respectively, you can see that at a MINIMUM, Jake Peavy’s ERA would’ve gained a team 2 points and more likely 3+. The WHIP difference is similar in impact.
Now we compared Peavy against our BAO pitcher who is a composite of the best pitcher available. This could be a starter or reliever. What if we compared him against strictly the BAO starter (the 51st best starter)? This would reduce the impact of Peavy’s Wins and K’s but would actually INCREASE the impact of his ERA and WHIP. Why? Because starters pitch more innings than relievers and tend to give up more runs and baserunners. The BAO starter has an ERA of 4.15 and WHIP of 1.34 (closest comparison – Carlos Silva) where the BAO reliever is at an ERA of 3.31 and WHIP of 1.24. Compared to the BAO Starter, his ERA is worth 9.9 ‘position points’ but 8.6 ‘player points’ for an average of 9.3 points.
In summary, we would say Jake Peavy was the MVP of 2007 Fantasy Baseball (5x5, MLB Universe) over A-Rod. While A-Rod had two high contributing categories (HR and RBI), one strong (Runs), and two above average (SB and AVG), Peavy has four high contributing categories with his ERA and WHIP point total of 16.7 dwarfing his closest competitors (Santana = 11.3, Sabathia = 11.2).
While we wouldn’t have the nut sack to draft Peavy #1 in a 2008 draft (pitching is less predictable than hitting), he’d be our choice for #1 in a ‘hindsight’ draft. And if you can’t even manage 20/20 hindsight, how can you expect to see clearly into the future... OTHER FANTASY NEWS:
1. Matt Holliday .340/120/36/137/11 I had him on every team. I'm not prescient. Not Nostradamus. Not even Ms. Cleo. Frankly, I'm more surprised Schwarzenegger is the governor of California than I am about Holliday's season. Ten years ago, you wouldn't have believed Schwarzenegger PLAYING the role of Governor. You would have said, "I liked the movie's action effects, but Schwarzenegger playing the Governor was completely unbelievable. Eastwood I believe, Schwarzenegger I ain't buying." Anyway, Holliday was 27 and playing in Coors. Of course he was going to have a good year. I'll cover next year in a future blog, but he will be overpriced next year. As someone who watched 500 of his almost 700 at-bats, he swings and misses a lot and doesn't walk enough. You heard it here first. You'll hear more in a future blog; I promise.
2. Magglio Ordonez .363/117/28/139/4 Take a second and look at his average again. Um, WTF?! He never hit higher than .320 before. And that was 5 years ago. When you top your career high in average by forty points at age 33, you're having one of those seasons where everything hit found a hole. I don't like the Detroit sportscasters and dislike the city even more, so I didn't watch a whole lot of Mags' season, but I guarantee he was lucky. You just don't hit 50 points above your career average without some luck. It's just not possible. Let's move on before my head explodes.
3. Ichiro Suzuki .351/111/6/68/37 I contemplated writing just Ichiro for his name, but why should I? Why does he get to go by only Ichiro? How does he even get away with putting only Ichiro on his jersey? Why hasn't more been made of this? Can you picture the brouhaha (That's right, I used the word brouhaha. Deal with it.) if Manny showed up at a game sporting a jersey that said Manny on the back? How about Pedro? Or just Torii? What happens if another Ichiro is picked up by Seattle? Does he start going by Ichiro S. or does one have only his last name put on his jersey and Ichiro keeps his first (which I think is his last name in Japan or something like that)? How does MLB allow this? Onto his season, Ichiro Suzuki hits for a high average every year, no surprise here. At some point, Ichiro Suzuki is not going to hit for that great of an average and I don't want to be the last person standing on that Kotaka when it starts sinking, if you catch my drift.
4. Eric Byrnes .286/103/21/83/50 Okay, sidenote: About three years ago, I pitched around Hollywood a baseball reality show, the theme of these meetings all came to the same conclusion. They liked the idea, but they needed a "name" attached. Someone that would generate interest in the baseball world, but, even more so, THEY needed someone that meant something to the average fan. We went after Steinbrenner. We got as far as his personal driver. That's right, I have a connection to Steinbrenner's driver! Anyway, since I'm writing this you can probably figure out, Steinbrenner passed. We couldn't get any "name" interested. The one "name" we could get... Wait, for it... A fourth outfielder on the Oakland A's, the one and only, Eric Byrnes. This time we passed. Eric Byrnes meant bupkus. Now he means, a 20/50 season. I'm happy for him. I'd still rather have Steinbrenner.
5. Carlos Lee .303/93/32/119/10 I took thirteen years of Spanish and I can say two phrases, "Mi mama cocina en el bano." And, "¡El Caballo!" You had to draft the horse pretty high so you probably were hoping for more, but he did what he could. Did the horse lose your season for you? Neigh.
6. Carl Crawford .315/93/11/80/50 Dude, eleven homers really isn't gonna cut it from a first round outfielder. Fifty steals or not. I'm sorry. Can we get twenty homers one of these years? Please. Stop teasing. It's not nice. And, I'll tell you what, you need to draft so home run heavy later in the draft to make up for 11 from your first outfielder, that you're really not happy with Carl right now, are you? Of course you're not. Pain felt.
7. Curtis Granderson .302/122/23/74/26 That Curtis came in seventh in a deep position makes me think I don't know a damn thing about FLB. I wouldn't have picked up Granderson if he were on waivers. No joke. He should be an eight hole hitter on an NL team. Seriously, isn't Granderson a middle class man's Endy Chavez? His numbers are a testament as much to his natural skills as they are to Leyland's foolhardy stubbornness in keeping Grandy a leadoff hitter.
8. Vladimir Guerrero .324/89/27/125/2 "From his head to his toes, that's how Vladdy goes," says Rex Hudler 81 games a year. Sigh. At least it's not Don Sutton. Matt Chico isn't good, Sutton, I don't care how many times you say it. Vlad looked like a surefire MVP for the first two months of the season. Then the tennis balls came off his walker and the opposing teams realized they should try challenging Kotchman.
9. Carlos Beltran .276/93/33/112/23 You know someone that goes from very hot to very cold? Beltran, the Latin Jason Bay. Also, his resemblance to Ricky from My So Called Life, while covered many times before now, is uncanny and, frankly, distracting. I half expect him to hit a home run then celebrate by giving Delgado an open mouth kiss. All this aside, Beltran didn't give you the numbers you might have hoped for when you drafted him in the second round, but he did give you exactly what you should have expected. His numbers are above-average, but not spectacular, year in and year out. Stop expecting more and you'll no longer be disappointed. Now go kiss Delgado!
10. Nick Markakis .300/97/23/112/18 Here you got some really nice value for where you had to draft him. In a league of mine, when Markakis started slow, I tried to pry him away from his owner. Didn't happen. You know who I like a lot for next year... The Greek God of Roto! Opa! But that will wait for another column.
With outfield being such a deep position, there's so many more to talk about from 11-20 that it might need its own column. For now, know that: Grady (11) wasn't in the top ten, Abreu (12) wasn't that bad from June on, Torii (13) cooled off in a major way after July, Dunn (14) didn't have that many 0 for 20 stretches, Rios (15) is set to catapult into the top ten, Soriano (16) deserves his own column for how far he fell short of expectations, Rowand (17) um, it's Aaron Rowand, he had a good year, you got lucky, Berkman (18) was covered in the 1st base column, B.J. Upton (19) also covered previously, and then, the one and only, Corey Hart (20). How can Corey Hart not have his own column? The guy has the same name as the guy who's married to Pink! OTHER FANTASY NEWS:
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