Top Twenty Outfielders for 2008

You want to know where to draft the top twenty catchers – here. While you’re at it, here’s the top twenty 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops. Also, our Player Rater for 2007 is here to give you some prospective. But, really, the position that has you here is the top twenty outfielders for 2008. Without further ado:

1. Matt Holliday – See our top ten overall where Holliday ranked fourth.

2. Grady Sizemore – See our top twenty overall where Sizemore ranked 13th.

3. Carl Crawford – See our top twenty overall where Crawford ranked 14th.

4. Alfonso Soriano – He’s 16th overall, see his projections here.

5. Carlos Lee – 17th overall, see his projections here.

6. Alexis Rios – I went out on a limb and placed him 18th overall, see why here.

7. Vladimir Guerrero – 19th overall, see why here.

8. Nick Markakis – I obviously love Markakis as I admitted here. Miguel Tejada left the Greek God of Roto, so what now? Well, he didn’t have him for thirty games last year and actually hit better during that time. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go above and beyond these numbers.

9. Carlos Beltran – I don’t know how he’s been able to make everyone look the other way, but Beltran is a .270 hitter with 25/20 skills. Good, but he’s not a top twenty overall player where he usually gets drafted. Maybe it’s his resemblance to Ricky from My So Called Life. Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18

10. B.J. Upton – See the top twenty 2nd basemen for his projections.

11. Ichiro Suzuki – The new manager of the Mariners, John McLaren, challenged Ichiro to hit .400, steal 80 bases and a staring contest. Ok, I made up the staring contest. I’ve never had Ichiro on a team. I stay away from guys whose number one benefit is a high average. More than likely, you only need a .280 average for your team to finish in the top three in your league. What, are you gonna turn your average points up to an eleven? But there is a place for Ichiro on a fantasy team, if coupled with Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus and Chris B. Young. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45

12. Lance Berkman – See the top twenty 1st basemen for his projections.

13. Bobby Abreu – I rode Abreu’s second half last year to a title in one of my more important leagues, so maybe I’m prejudice. Then again, I rode Braun, Peavy and a host of others. Anyway, Abreu’s in a good lineup for runs and RBIs and won’t kill you in home runs and average while chipping in decent steals. I’m a believer. Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20

14. Curtis Granderson – In the same post about why I like Markakis, I broke down why I didn’t like Granderson. He’s too much of a free swinger for my taste, so I won’t have him on my teams, unless he falls way down from where I’ve been seeing him get drafted. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25

15. Adam Dunn – Go ahead and guess Dunn’s age? Wrong, he’s only 28 for the ’08 season. It’s the 320 lbs. that confuses people. I’ll probably get reamed for putting Dunn this high, but follow along, he’s got a great eye and he’s hitting 40 homers and getting 100 runs and RBIs without question and he chips in some steals. Also, as players get older, their averages tend to get better. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7

16. Eric Byrnes – Let me start by saying, I’m not drafting Byrnes this year. He’ll be overvalued/rated. But if the hype gets high enough on him, maybe the tide will shift and he’ll be underrated by draft time. (I’m seeing this begin with Braun in the reverse direction. Everyone started very high on Braun for ’08, and now people have begun to get cold on him.) I think Byrnes can get you decent numbers, just don’t draft him thinking you’re getting more than last year. You will get less. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20

17. Torii Hunter – Torii landed on a good team for running and a crappy team for offense. (Celebrity Deathmatch: Billy Beane (the straight one) vs. Mike Scioscia) The word on the streets of The OC is Torii is going to be protecting Vlad. Well, who’s going to be protecting Double I? The Rally Monkey? Either way, I think Torii’s good for 20/20, act accordingly. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20

18. Magglio Ordonez – Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second. He’s not a bad hitter; he’s just not going to hit .363 again. Since so much of his value last year was tied to his high average, be very careful drafting him. Projections: 100/30/110/.300

19. Corey Hart – He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25

20. Brad Hawpe/Ryan Spilborghs – With only twenty outfielders listed (will do a second half to the outfielders at a later date), I wanted to reach a bit for number 20. Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5

After the top twenty, many obviously, but one name to absolutely avoid:

Jason Bay – I broke down various reasons to avoid him here. You may feel like he’s a bargain coming off a bad year, but he’s doesn’t run anymore, his lineup protection is from hunger and he compares to Bobby Higginson. Do I have to say more? Projections: crap/crap/and more crap.

But let’s end on a positive note. Someone I’m absolutely giddy about:

Shane Victorino – Last month I wrote about Victorino here. He’s Eric Byrnes seven rounds later. You’re welcome. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40

Tomorrow, the top twenty starting pitchers to draft.

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Top Twenty for 2008

Yesterday, we went over our top ten here. Today, we’ll go from 11 thru 20. Usually in the first round you can't go too wrong, but your fantasy team can be hurt with your second choice, depending on where you draft (and I don’t mean Afghanistan as opposed to Virginia). I’ve seen people reach in the 2nd round and it has hurt them. You want as safe as a pick as possible. Only once in the next ten do I go out on a bit of a limb, but we'll get to that. Without further ado:

11. Jimmy Rollins – You’re thinking right now, "I wish Jimmy Rollins would be there at the 11th pick, but he won’t." Let’s not forget his thirty home runs were the best of his career and now he’s going to be 30 years old in 2008. So if someone else takes him earlier, c'est la vie. Yes, that may be the only time c'est la vie has ever been written in a fantasy baseball blog. Projections: 130/22/70/35/.290

12. Ryan Howard – If you took Prince Fielder with your number one pick, you may want to look slightly down the list, but, then again, I would strongly consider having Fielder and Howard on the same team, especially if poundage is a category. Projections: 100/50/140/.275

13. Grady Sizemore – According to Indians' TV commericals, the Ladies love Grady. Well, you will too, if you can grab him here. He’s about to have a season that will push him into the top ten next year. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30

14. Carl Crawford – He never hit 25 home runs in a season, but he’s still only going to be 27 for 2008. Obviously, you’re coupling this pick with your first round pick, so if you took Jose Reyes in the first round and Crawford is still on the board, you need to pass him up or trade him immediately. But if you took Prince Fielder or Howard, then take Crawford. Projections: 105/15/85/.305/50

15. Johan Santana – I struggled with where to place Santana and I ended up placing him here because I wouldn’t draft him and someone else will before me. So, he’ll probably go sooner than this, but I don’t want him. Not that I think he’ll be bad or that I think he’ll be on the Twins at the start of the season and have trade rumors swirling around him for half the season. I don’t. I just think it’s very important to build around offense early, but that’ll have to wait for another post. Projections (these are likely to change depending on where he ends up in a trade): 18-9/240/3.10/1.06

16. Alfonso Soriano – He’s now 32 in Latin years, which means he’s anywhere from 32 to 40. He slowed down a lot last year and he already has the contract that can keep him in coke and whores for the rest of his life. The years of 30/30 are probably behind him. 115/35/75/.280/20

17. Carlos Lee – El Caballo has put up solid numbers year in and out. He slowed down a bit last year with his lowest steal total since ’02, so that may be a harbinger of things to come, but you want a steady performer in the 2nd round, the horse is your man. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7

18. Alexis Rios – You wanted the limb; here I am out on it. He’ll be 27 in ‘08 and he’s headed for the first round in ‘09. This may feel like you’re reaching, but trust me, you will not be disappointed. You know what you think Carlos Beltran will do? Well, Rios is about to do it. Get him before one of your leaguemates. Projections: 120/32/110/.300/25

19. Vladimir Guerrero – Just back from his third tour of ‘Nam and his knees have never been worse. He’s got enough natural ability that he'll still be valuable. Just don’t expect steals anymore. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3

20. David Ortiz –The knee may be a thing of the past, but something else might just pop up because he has a body type that doesn’t age well. If you were to pass him by for this reason and his eligibility concerns, I would understand. Projections: 115/40/120/.310

After 20 – Many players, obviously, but notably…

Ryan Braun – He’ll probably go before “after 20,” but that’s fine. You don’t want him in ’08. For every McGwire Rookie of the Year, there’s a dozen woulda-shouldas. Let someone else deal with the possible headache, because as stated here by The Baseball Analysts:

The only disconcerting split involves (Braun's) BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP.

Problems with righties could be a problem. Not a good pitching side to struggle against. I'm not saying he will be dreadful; I'm saying he may have his struggles. In the 2nd round, you don't want to risk it.

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Top 10 Outfielders 2007

1. Matt Holliday
.340/120/36/137/11
I had him on every team. I'm not prescient. Not Nostradamus. Not even Ms. Cleo. Frankly, I'm more surprised Schwarzenegger is the governor of California than I am about Holliday's season. Ten years ago, you wouldn't have believed Schwarzenegger PLAYING the role of Governor. You would have said, "I liked the movie's action effects, but Schwarzenegger playing the Governor was completely unbelievable. Eastwood I believe, Schwarzenegger I ain't buying." Anyway, Holliday was 27 and playing in Coors. Of course he was going to have a good year. I'll cover next year in a future blog, but he will be overpriced next year. As someone who watched 500 of his almost 700 at-bats, he swings and misses a lot and doesn't walk enough. You heard it here first. You'll hear more in a future blog; I promise.

2. Magglio Ordonez
.363/117/28/139/4
Take a second and look at his average again. Um, WTF?! He never hit higher than .320 before. And that was 5 years ago. When you top your career high in average by forty points at age 33, you're having one of those seasons where everything hit found a hole. I don't like the Detroit sportscasters and dislike the city even more, so I didn't watch a whole lot of Mags' season, but I guarantee he was lucky. You just don't hit 50 points above your career average without some luck. It's just not possible. Let's move on before my head explodes.

3. Ichiro Suzuki
.351/111/6/68/37
I contemplated writing just Ichiro for his name, but why should I? Why does he get to go by only Ichiro? How does he even get away with putting only Ichiro on his jersey? Why hasn't more been made of this? Can you picture the brouhaha (That's right, I used the word brouhaha. Deal with it.) if Manny showed up at a game sporting a jersey that said Manny on the back? How about Pedro? Or just Torii? What happens if another Ichiro is picked up by Seattle? Does he start going by Ichiro S. or does one have only his last name put on his jersey and Ichiro keeps his first (which I think is his last name in Japan or something like that)? How does MLB allow this? Onto his season, Ichiro Suzuki hits for a high average every year, no surprise here. At some point, Ichiro Suzuki is not going to hit for that great of an average and I don't want to be the last person standing on that Kotaka when it starts sinking, if you catch my drift.

4. Eric Byrnes
.286/103/21/83/50
Okay, sidenote: About three years ago, I pitched around Hollywood a baseball reality show, the theme of these meetings all came to the same conclusion. They liked the idea, but they needed a "name" attached. Someone that would generate interest in the baseball world, but, even more so, THEY needed someone that meant something to the average fan. We went after Steinbrenner. We got as far as his personal driver. That's right, I have a connection to Steinbrenner's driver! Anyway, since I'm writing this you can probably figure out, Steinbrenner passed. We couldn't get any "name" interested. The one "name" we could get... Wait, for it... A fourth outfielder on the Oakland A's, the one and only, Eric Byrnes. This time we passed. Eric Byrnes meant bupkus. Now he means, a 20/50 season. I'm happy for him. I'd still rather have Steinbrenner.

5. Carlos Lee
.303/93/32/119/10
I took thirteen years of Spanish and I can say two phrases, "Mi mama cocina en el bano." And, "¡El Caballo!" You had to draft the horse pretty high so you probably were hoping for more, but he did what he could. Did the horse lose your season for you? Neigh.

6. Carl Crawford
.315/93/11/80/50
Dude, eleven homers really isn't gonna cut it from a first round outfielder. Fifty steals or not. I'm sorry. Can we get twenty homers one of these years? Please. Stop teasing. It's not nice. And, I'll tell you what, you need to draft so home run heavy later in the draft to make up for 11 from your first outfielder, that you're really not happy with Carl right now, are you? Of course you're not. Pain felt.

7. Curtis Granderson
.302/122/23/74/26
That Curtis came in seventh in a deep position makes me think I don't know a damn thing about FLB. I wouldn't have picked up Granderson if he were on waivers. No joke. He should be an eight hole hitter on an NL team. Seriously, isn't Granderson a middle class man's Endy Chavez? His numbers are a testament as much to his natural skills as they are to Leyland's foolhardy stubbornness in keeping Grandy a leadoff hitter.

8. Vladimir Guerrero
.324/89/27/125/2
"From his head to his toes, that's how Vladdy goes," says Rex Hudler 81 games a year. Sigh. At least it's not Don Sutton. Matt Chico isn't good, Sutton, I don't care how many times you say it. Vlad looked like a surefire MVP for the first two months of the season. Then the tennis balls came off his walker and the opposing teams realized they should try challenging Kotchman.

9. Carlos Beltran
.276/93/33/112/23
You know someone that goes from very hot to very cold? Beltran, the Latin Jason Bay. Also, his resemblance to Ricky from My So Called Life, while covered many times before now, is uncanny and, frankly, distracting. I half expect him to hit a home run then celebrate by giving Delgado an open mouth kiss. All this aside, Beltran didn't give you the numbers you might have hoped for when you drafted him in the second round, but he did give you exactly what you should have expected. His numbers are above-average, but not spectacular, year in and year out. Stop expecting more and you'll no longer be disappointed. Now go kiss Delgado!

10. Nick Markakis
.300/97/23/112/18
Here you got some really nice value for where you had to draft him. In a league of mine, when Markakis started slow, I tried to pry him away from his owner. Didn't happen. You know who I like a lot for next year... The Greek God of Roto! Opa! But that will wait for another column.

With outfield being such a deep position, there's so many more to talk about from 11-20 that it might need its own column. For now, know that: Grady (11) wasn't in the top ten, Abreu (12) wasn't that bad from June on, Torii (13) cooled off in a major way after July, Dunn (14) didn't have that many 0 for 20 stretches, Rios (15) is set to catapult into the top ten, Soriano (16) deserves his own column for how far he fell short of expectations, Rowand (17) um, it's Aaron Rowand, he had a good year, you got lucky, Berkman (18) was covered in the 1st base column, B.J. Upton (19) also covered previously, and then, the one and only, Corey Hart (20). How can Corey Hart not have his own column? The guy has the same name as the guy who's married to Pink!
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