Hidden Draft Day Bargains

by Lou Poulas of Fantasy Insider Online

The key to any draft - whether it is auction style, scratch, or keeper - is to find value where your competitors don’t see it. Each year owners scour the web and other print publications for information on sleepers, injuries, and any type of data they can get their hands on to help weed through the hundreds of available players to discover who’ll breakout in the coming year.

This is at best a painstaking exercise at the worst a fruitless one. Each publication has their own ideas and frankly they don’t always do a great job of backing up their beliefs. Sometimes they even contradict each other.

An alternative way to look for value is through gauging your competitor’s belief in certain players, and anticipate where they will fall in the draft. A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole. Statistics fluctuate annually (sometimes through luck, other times due to legitimate reasons such as injuries) and for established players most of it is just noise. A player may simply have a good or bad luck year.

A quick way to get at this data is to compare the Fantasy Rank of the previous year to their projected rank to the upcoming season. Large differences often signify where an owner may over or undervalue a player, and knowing this allows better planning for your draft. I’ve identified some batters who are likely to be valued incorrectly.

Overvalued – These players are likely to be drafted earlier than they should be. They still may be good players, even great, but don’t plan your draft strategy on obtaining their services.

Aaron Rowand - At 29 years of age, Rowand had his career year in 2007, setting career highs in R, 2B, HR, RBI, and OBP. A great rule of thumb is to never pay a premium for players coming off a career year as they are almost always going to disappoint. Rowand is no different. If you need more reasons to avoid him, remember he’s leaving his bandbox of a park (Citizens Bank) for San Francisco which is average at best. Plus, and more importantly, he’ll be surrounded by one of the worst everyday lineups in baseball.

Magglio Ordonez – I like Ordonez, he’ll certainly be a good player this year, but too much of his value in 2007 was in due high batting average (.363). He is a career .312 hitter with a previous high of .320 and in 2008 projects to a line of .308, 85 R, 20 HR, 94 RBI which is more in line with a top-20 Outfielder than the Top-3 version he was in 2007.

Mike Lowell – I admit I dislike Lowell and usually avoid him at all costs. This didn’t work out so well for me last year, but it will work out fine for me in ’08:

2007: .324 AVG, 79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, 8th Ranked 3B
2008: .283 AVG, 68 R, 15 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, 18th Ranked 3B

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

-20: Ichiro Suzuki, OF (17, 37)
-20: Randy Winn, OF (40, 60)
-19: Eric Byrnes, OF (2, 21)
-11: Shane Victorino, OF (29, 40)
-10: Placido Polanco, 2B (9, 19)
-10: Casey Blake, 3B (12, 22)
-6: JJ Hardy, SS (9, 15)
-5: Khalil Green, SS (6, 11)

Undervalued – the heart of every winning season is finding the draft day steal.

Nick Swisher – The new Chicago White Sox center fielder had a down year in 2007, batting just .265 while achieving close the bear minimum of counting stats required for a fantasy outfielder – 78 R, 84 RBI, 22 HR. With no speed, Swisher ranked the 38th best in the OF in 2007.

2008 looks to be a bit different. Why? Swisher is better than what he showed last year and is moving from an extreme pitchers park to an above average hitters park. His projected stats are improved almost across the board t0 91 R, 94 RBI, 30 HR. His batting average still figures to be low (.264) but this projection makes him a top 20 outfielder.

Alfonso Soriano – Many, including myself, had Soriano ranked 1st coming into last season and he never did live up to expectations, even when on the field. He missed almost a month of playing time, but even projected over 160 games his 2007 stats don’t electrify – 39 HR, 114 R, 83 RBI, 23 SB. Very good of course, but not worthy of a 1st overall pick.

Fast forward to 2008. Owners still have sour tastes in their mouths having spent $40+ on him last year, and are likely ready to stay away this draft day. His projections are still great though – 35 HR, 97 RBI, 91 R, 22 SB. Watch him fall a bit and grab him early in the second round.

Miguel Tejada – We can all agree Tejada is no longer the elite shortstop that he was a few years ago. Coming off an injury plagued and disappointing 2007, Tejada finds himself with a new team and ready to start anew. He is 32 years old and not likely to completely self destruct. For fantasy owners, the better news is that his counting stats were held down last year due to his missed playing time. He hit 18 HR, with 72 R and 81 RBI making him a lower tier option at shortstop.

His projections are solid - .297 AVG, 76 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 4 SB and perhaps more importantly his competition will not be as good. Khalil Greene, Orlando Cabrera, JJ Hardy, Julio Lugo, Jhonny Peralta, and Edgar Renteria were all ranked higher than him last year but project to be ranked worse than him this year. Let your fellow owners draft this crew before Tejada, and a few rounds later get the same value for less cost.

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

+19: Andruw Jones, OF (31, 12)
+16: Vernon Wells, OF (42, 26)
+9: Rafael Furcal, SS (15, 6)
+7: Troy Glaus, 3B (22, 15)
+5: Miguel Tejada, SS (14, 9)
+5: Tad Iguchi, 2B (19, 14)
+5: Aramis Ramirez, 3B (10, 5)
+5: Josh Fields, 3B (16, 11)
+4: Alex Gordon, 3B (17, 14)

Final Note: Earlier I said, “A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole.” This only works for established players and you should of course pay specific attention to players at the very beginning or very end of their careers.

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Top Twenty Outfielders for 2008

You want to know where to draft the top twenty catchers – here. While you’re at it, here’s the top twenty 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen and shortstops. Also, our Player Rater for 2007 is here to give you some prospective. But, really, the position that has you here is the top twenty outfielders for 2008. Without further ado:

1. Matt Holliday – See our top ten overall where Holliday ranked fourth.

2. Grady Sizemore – See our top twenty overall where Sizemore ranked 13th.

3. Carl Crawford – See our top twenty overall where Crawford ranked 14th.

4. Alfonso Soriano – He’s 16th overall, see his projections here.

5. Carlos Lee – 17th overall, see his projections here.

6. Alexis Rios – I went out on a limb and placed him 18th overall, see why here.

7. Vladimir Guerrero – 19th overall, see why here.

8. Nick Markakis – I obviously love Markakis as I admitted here. Miguel Tejada left the Greek God of Roto, so what now? Well, he didn’t have him for thirty games last year and actually hit better during that time. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go above and beyond these numbers.

9. Carlos Beltran – I don’t know how he’s been able to make everyone look the other way, but Beltran is a .270 hitter with 25/20 skills. Good, but he’s not a top twenty overall player where he usually gets drafted. Maybe it’s his resemblance to Ricky from My So Called Life. Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18

10. B.J. Upton – See the top twenty 2nd basemen for his projections.

11. Ichiro Suzuki – The new manager of the Mariners, John McLaren, challenged Ichiro to hit .400, steal 80 bases and a staring contest. Ok, I made up the staring contest. I’ve never had Ichiro on a team. I stay away from guys whose number one benefit is a high average. More than likely, you only need a .280 average for your team to finish in the top three in your league. What, are you gonna turn your average points up to an eleven? But there is a place for Ichiro on a fantasy team, if coupled with Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus and Chris B. Young. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45

12. Lance Berkman – See the top twenty 1st basemen for his projections.

13. Bobby Abreu – I rode Abreu’s second half last year to a title in one of my more important leagues, so maybe I’m prejudice. Then again, I rode Braun, Peavy and a host of others. Anyway, Abreu’s in a good lineup for runs and RBIs and won’t kill you in home runs and average while chipping in decent steals. I’m a believer. Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20

14. Curtis Granderson – In the same post about why I like Markakis, I broke down why I didn’t like Granderson. He’s too much of a free swinger for my taste, so I won’t have him on my teams, unless he falls way down from where I’ve been seeing him get drafted. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25

15. Adam Dunn – Go ahead and guess Dunn’s age? Wrong, he’s only 28 for the ’08 season. It’s the 320 lbs. that confuses people. I’ll probably get reamed for putting Dunn this high, but follow along, he’s got a great eye and he’s hitting 40 homers and getting 100 runs and RBIs without question and he chips in some steals. Also, as players get older, their averages tend to get better. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7

16. Eric Byrnes – Let me start by saying, I’m not drafting Byrnes this year. He’ll be overvalued/rated. But if the hype gets high enough on him, maybe the tide will shift and he’ll be underrated by draft time. (I’m seeing this begin with Braun in the reverse direction. Everyone started very high on Braun for ’08, and now people have begun to get cold on him.) I think Byrnes can get you decent numbers, just don’t draft him thinking you’re getting more than last year. You will get less. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20

17. Torii Hunter – Torii landed on a good team for running and a crappy team for offense. (Celebrity Deathmatch: Billy Beane (the straight one) vs. Mike Scioscia) The word on the streets of The OC is Torii is going to be protecting Vlad. Well, who’s going to be protecting Double I? The Rally Monkey? Either way, I think Torii’s good for 20/20, act accordingly. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20

18. Magglio Ordonez – Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second. He’s not a bad hitter; he’s just not going to hit .363 again. Since so much of his value last year was tied to his high average, be very careful drafting him. Projections: 100/30/110/.300

19. Corey Hart – He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25

20. Brad Hawpe/Ryan Spilborghs – With only twenty outfielders listed (will do a second half to the outfielders at a later date), I wanted to reach a bit for number 20. Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5

After the top twenty, many obviously, but one name to absolutely avoid:

Jason Bay – I broke down various reasons to avoid him here. You may feel like he’s a bargain coming off a bad year, but he’s doesn’t run anymore, his lineup protection is from hunger and he compares to Bobby Higginson. Do I have to say more? Projections: crap/crap/and more crap.

But let’s end on a positive note. Someone I’m absolutely giddy about:

Shane Victorino – Last month I wrote about Victorino here. He’s Eric Byrnes seven rounds later. You’re welcome. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40

Tomorrow, the top twenty starting pitchers to draft.

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Friday Recap and Hate Mail

With this past Monday being the last day to WGA picket for 2007 and no Project Runway this week (Sweet Pea!), there was plenty of time to write fantasy baseball blog posts this week and since it’s Friday, it’s time to recap. If you’re thinking to yourself, “Why are you making this sound like a regular feature of your blog when you’ve never done it before?” because it will be a regular feature, now stop pointing out the obvious and let’s recap.

The week started off with Jeff Francoeur being dissected. He was gutted, splayed out under a harsh fluorescent and picked apart for answers. What we found wasn’t pretty and Frenchy was rejected.

Next we turned our eyes to Eric Byrnes, a man I could see saying, “I hate Arizona’s lack of vegan restaurants, but please don’t say I said so -- I’m a fan favorite!” and Shane “Mahalo” Victorino. They were propped against a wall and analyzed. One came out on top, one came out with curly hair and they both undoubtedly smoke pot.

Then it was onto Jason Bay, the most vanilla baseball player since the 1950s. I picture the Pirates doing a stage rendition of “Far From Heaven” with Bay in the Quaid role. But I digress. Jason Bay had a miserable 2007, but next year can be a fresh start… though we predict that it will be more of the same.

Finally, we tried to understand Manny and his career trajectory. Does he have one good year left in him? Why do you do what you do, Manny? We looked at historical data, yearly statistics, career averages and then, finally, we made a few broad assumptions. Face it, Manny’s an enigma wrapped in a pupusa.

Now we leave you with a piece of Earl Weaver-style hate mail from one loyal reader… No, we didn’t get any hate mail this week, but I doubt that’s because everyone agrees with us. Feel free to troll, flame and be spiteful as all get-out in the comments section. I was beaten as a child and I could use the love. Thanks and flame on, flamer.

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Eric Byrnes vs. Shane Victorino

In 2007, Eric Byrnes had a career year, cashed out with a huge contract and became the first white spokesman for Soul Glo. Shane Victorino had a productive year, but was injured, costing him just over twenty games. Eric Byrnes will invariably go before Shane Victorino in 2008 fantasy baseball drafts, but should he?

Let’s look at how dramatically different 2007 was for Eric Byrnes compared to other years. His seasonal averages are 85/19/68/.267/23. Last year his numbers were 103/21/83/.286/50. He had a career high in runs, RBIs, steals and bested his seasonal average of homers. So when it’s said he had a career year, it's not an exaggeration. And if you’re just hoping to get at least steals from Byrnes, his previous high in steals was 25. Don’t get caught up in the perception that he’s on the rise. He was 31 last year. Sure, he hustles, but he always hustled and he didn’t always put up decent numbers. Maybe he finally feels like a part of organization with Arizona, but he was there in 2006 and he only stole 25 bases. Last year was a great year to have Byrnes, that doesn’t mean 2008 will be. Don’t compound your error of missing Byrnes last year by taking him this year.

Shane Victorino should be at the top of the Phillies lineup next year, which means 100 runs without blinking. His speed is obvious. Last year he had 37 steals in 131 games with only 4 times caught. His power is surprising and, in that ballpark, he’s good for 15 homers if he plays an entire year. His average is not a negative, after batting .285 combined in his first three years with the Phillies. He’s only 27. Just about the only thing Byrnes will definitely eclipse Victorino in is RBIs and that’s simply a result of where they will be batting in their respective lineup.

Finally, the most exciting thing about Victorino, he will be drafted after Byrnes in your league. Remember, always go for value over the name.
OTHER FANTASY NEWS: