Top Twenty Shortstops For 2008

Where to draft the top twenty catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen are all in the books, so now we move onto the shortstops. Top twenty shortstops isn’t as shallow as you might think. For an interesting article on why shortstops are almost as deep outfield, check this out. It’s a great read provided by Lou from Baseball Lab. Unfortunately, Lou is no longer with us. Not dead, just ain’t blogging anymore. His archives are there, and you should check them out some time. Also, our Player Rater for 2007 is here. Onto to the shortstops.

1. Jose Reyes – Check out our top ten overall for projections.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Check out our top ten overall for projections. Also, if you're so inclined, check out why you should NOT draft Hanley 1st overall.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Check out our top twenty overall for projections.

4. Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo’ll hit second in ’08, which means he scores at least a 110 times if he doesn’t try and carry any deer meat down any stairs. His OBP worries me, but his park excites me. His tendency to strikeout worries me, but the Poles are hard-workers. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10

5. Derek Jeter – Jeter proves my point that you can’t have an ugly mulatto child. Roseanne Barr and George Foster can give birth to a swimsuit model. Jeter always gets drafted higher than he should, probably because he’s notched Jessicas -- Alba, Biel and Rabbit. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15 and you're the envy of any girl that is in your league.

6. Miguel Tejada – His consecutive game streak that he fought so hard for makes me think he’s gonna want to shut up anybody who has linked him to steroids. I say he comes back like a potato sack of dragons. Then again, his age and no steroids may not cooperate with his intention. Projections:
90/25/100/.290/3

7. Carlos Guillen – He’ll be over at 1st this year, but as long as he has shortstop eligibility, you’re good to go. See what was said about him at top twenty 1st basemen. For those too lazy to look, I’m not a huge fan.

8. Rafael Furcal – ’07 was a bad year for Furcal, but his ankle injury in the beginning of the year seemed to be to blame. He was overrated last year, but will be underrated this year (then overrated next year, do you see how this goes?). You have my permission to draft him. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35

9. Michael Young – Young reminds me a lot of Carlos Guillen. You get a little bit of everything and nothing that wonderful. Young is a better bet to hit you .300; Guillen has an outside shot at 17/17 (I refuse to write 20/20 next to his name, when it's soooo not going to happen.) Projections: 95/12/95/.310/10

10. Jhonny Peralta – He looked a lot better in the first half last year, but he’s still only going to be 26 this year. He’s a definite buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3

11. Edgar Renteria – I likey Renteria. He’ll get you some decent numbers when he’s out there and then when he’s banged up, you fill in with a hot hitter off waivers. Unless you’re in an AL-Only league, then you can’t fill in as easily. Projections: 95/10/75/.295/15

12. Khalil Greene – Don’t think Khalil will ever hit above .275, so act accordingly. Projections: 85/27/100/.260

13. J.J. Hardy – I almost put J.J. above Guillen, but his OBP was a bit atrocious and his pre- and post- All-Star game splits were worse. He sees very few balls he doesn’t like and even fewer strikes. Projections: 85/20/80/.260

14. Ryan Theriot – Great strike-zone discipline and speed. He’s a great buy towards the end of drafts for some cheap speed. Forgo Juan Pierre-types and grab Theriot. Projections: 105/3/50/.290/45

15. Orlando Cabrera – He was not as good last year as you might think considering some experts draft lists. His stats were: 101/8/86/.301/20. Rex “The Hud” Hudler loved him, but he also loves Garrett Anderson. You don’t have to draft Cabrera just because everyone seems to be high on him. Projections: 100/9/65/.280/20

16. Julio Lugo – Here’s what I said at the top twenty 2nd basemen, “The steals were a bit of a surprise on Boston last year. Don’t think the average will be as bad as last year…” Projections: 80/7/65/.270/25

17. Stephen Drew – He’ll be better than he was last year soon, just not sure if you should count on it being in 2008. His OBP was a mess, but he’s only 25 this year. Projections: 65/20/75/.270/15

18. Yunel Escobar – I’m pretty high on Yunel. Well, as high as someone could be and still place him 18th overall at his position. His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that. Projections: 80/10/55/.285/15

19. Jason Bartlett– He’s a poor man’s Theriot. It just keeps getting better and better, huh? You’ll get cheap steals here, and maybe nothing else. Projections: 70/5/45/.270/25

20. Erick Aybar – A poor man’s Jason Bartlett. Projections: 65/2/35/.265/20

Just after the top twenty, obviously many, but I couldn’t fail to mention:

Brandon Wood – He will be a monster slugger one day soon, but his K/BB ratio is just plain ugly. Hopefully he becomes something other than a young Troy Glaus. Projections: sticks with the club out of spring training, then rides the bench on and off for three months totally screwing up his progress. Draft him in ’09.

Tomorrow, we move to the top twenty outfielders for 2008.

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Top Ten Overall for 2008

In 2007, Jake Peavy was the top overall player according to our player rater with Alex Rodriguez coming in a close second. Of course, pitching is less reliable, so looking ahead to your 2008 fantasy baseball draft, how should you draft? Here’s my top 10. Tomorrow, 11 thru 20.

1. Alex Rodriguez – Maybe you despise his natural ability, maybe the New York Media has convinced you he’s not as good as you think, but his worst season of the last five seasons was in 2006 when he gave you 113/35/121/.290/15. If he gives you those numbers again, he’s not causing you to lose your fantasy league. There’s safety in Arod, no matter what you feel about him personally. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305

2. Jose Reyes – He placed only twenty-three on our player rater last year, but finding 30 home runs later in the draft will be easier than finding 30 steals. With Reyes’s 70 steals, you won’t have to worry about steals later. Projections: 130/14/70/.295/70

3. Albert Pujols – His numbers last year were down, definitely. They were still 99/32/103/.327/2. His lineup doesn’t look any better going into 2008, but his lineup wasn’t very good in 2006 when he carried his team to the World Series. He’s a tremendous talent that is still only 28 (in Latin years that may be 35, but that’s a different discussion). Projections: 110/40/115/.330/2

4. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Remember what Helton used to do in his prime years? But Holliday won’t hit .340 again. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/7

5. David Wright – The Mets love to run and it doesn’t appear like Wright is slowing down just yet. 30 steals might be asking a lot, but there’s a good chance his power will continue to grow. Projection: 115/34/120/.310/20

6. Hanley Ramirez – He’s a talent, no doubt. But his offseason shoulder surgery is something to be aware of. He’s not higher on this list because of reasons stated here. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45

7. Jake Peavy – Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, the best pitcher currently in the game. If you have balls to take him first or second, I can’t argue with it. I’m ball-less. Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05

8. Miguel Cabrera – He’s a hitting savant and he’s on Trimspa. The change of leagues doesn’t worry me, as it will be negated by the more than legit lineup now surrounding him. Projections: 110/35/125/.315/4

9. Chase Utley – Weak position, monster lineup, great ability, fierce determination. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12

10. Prince Fielder – Case could be made for a lot of people in this slot. Johan Santana, Ryan Braun, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, Brandon Webb, but they’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the eleven to twenty rankings. Prince is young, is a safe pick to repeat last year’s monster season and has a huge backside upside. Projections: 115/50/125/.285

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

2008 Fantasy Draft Poll

Alex Rodriguez will probably go number one (why Hanley Ramirez should not go number one, click here) in most 2008 fantasy baseball drafts, but who will go #2? There’s lots of worthy candidates for you to choose from, so which one will it be?

A) Jose Reyes -- As long as Major League Baseball doesn’t start testing for Red Bull, you’re getting 70 steals and possibly 15 home runs.
B) Hanley Ramirez -- 50 steals and 25 home runs and hopefully the Marlins bat him 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
C) David Wright -- Easily 30/30 and he’s got a squeaky clean image like O.J. Simpson in the 70s.
D) Albert Pujols -- With a name like poo-holes, do you even have to ask?
E) As Sloth from The Goonies would say, “Baby Ruth?”

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Around the Majors

A Rays fansite (Now, quiet, they have a few fans. (And, sorry to do a parenthesis inside a parenthesis, but I just wanted to point out I was gonna do that super-snarky thing when a blogger crosses out a word, but you can still read it, but I don’t know how to do strike-throughs. Alas…)) talks about how Troy Percival will allow Al Reyes to pitch the 8th inning. Which is completely true (not that someone wrote that, but that it appears Percy will be the closer), but my question is why. As in, why don’t the Rays want to compete? Reyes was perfectly fine last year. Sure, he wore out as the season progressed, but don’t the Rays have a few more, ahem, fish to fry than signing a closer that retired already? First, they trade away Delmon Young, who could be feasting on major league pitching by as soon as this year, for Matt Garza. Yes, good pitching beats good hitting. We see it every All-Star game and every October. Yes, the Rays’ staff needs help, but Delmon looked like the real deal. Garza, I have my questions about. They could have gotten more. Second, they pick a closer off a scrap heap, to replace the other scrap-heaper. Unbelievable. I think the Rays are trying to pull a Chapter 11 deal like the Marlins. What is with Florida teams?

Over at a Sawx site, they discuss what Manny being Manny might be this year. Supposedly, Gammons has word that Manny’s hitting the weights. I say, Manny’s having Big Papi explain to him how Netflix works, but that’s me. I stand by what I wrote last month about Manny in 2008, but take a gander at what someone else thought.

Over at a Mets site, they talk about giving Pelfrey the ball every fifth day. I completely agree. He showed real promise in September. Not to mention, as the Mets rotation is starting to look, he might be the number two man. Santana for Reyes? Nah, but they better get Santana for someone(s).

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Don’t Draft Hanley Ramirez #1

Our favorite ESPN columnist, Eric Karabell, crapped out a turd baby as he took a look at some fantasy baseball expert drafts for 2008 (year 5768 for all the Jews researching who to draft besides Shawn Green). His non-take on Hanley Ramirez is really what got my goat, and no one gets my goat, but me. Let’s look to see what Karabell had to say:

I know some people who rank Hanley No. 1, over A-Rod, and I don't call them crazy. Too many fantasy owners simply, and lazily, look at the 2007 stats and assume that's what they're getting. This isn't the case at all. You're getting 2008 stats, for better or worse.

Some analysts simply, and lazily, refuse to take a side for fear they’ll be wrong. Hanley is not going to do what he did last year.

A) He doesn’t take enough walks. Stats here, if you don’t believe me.

B) He swings wildly and injures himself. From September, 2007:

The Associated Press is reporting Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez fanned on a high fastball and winced in pain as he dropped the bat during his follow through during the Sept. 3 game against the Washington Nationals.

Later in that month:

The Palm Beach Post's Joe Capozzi reports Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez is considering having shoulder surgery in the offseason and won't play winter ball.

In October:

Juan C. Rodriguez, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder Wednesday, Oct. 3. Ramirez is not expected to be at full strength for the start of spring training.

C) The Marlins top paid player for 2008 is Jose Castillo. Hanley doesn’t even have Dontrelle to knock in anymore. Could Hanley try and do too much? He might.

Sure, Hanley is a bona fide talent. He can get you 20 homers and 40 steals, but he’s not as safe as Arod, Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley. Frankly, I might consider Peavy or Johan safer. You want safety with your first pick; Hanley is not it. He has too many question marks.
OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Top 25 Players for 2008

This is from ESPN's top analyst (pointing out that he's their top analyst makes it sarcastic), Eric Karabell:

1. Alex Rodriguez: Even with some statistical regression, you can't go wrong.
2. Hanley Ramirez: Power and speed, and someday manning center field.
3. Jose Reyes: Nobody steals more bases, and he could reach 15 homers.
4. David Wright: No, he's not moving to second base. He'll still run.
5. Albert Pujols: And that was an off-year. He can put up A-Rod numbers.
6. Jimmy Rollins: Take the power down a notch, but still, fantastic.
7. Alfonso Soriano: Split the difference from '06 and '07.
8. Chase Utley: Now there are two top second basemen, but still.
9. Miguel Cabrera: And it's not like Florida's park has been good to him.
10. Matt Holliday: Can't go wrong as long as he calls Coors home.
11. Carl Crawford: Extremely talented, even if this is the best he can do.
12. Vladimir Guerrero: It wouldn't hurt to have lineup protection.
13. Johan Santana: Could make the case to put him in round one.
14. Ryan Howard: No reason why he can't get back to 50 home runs.
15. Jake Peavy: Imagine the Cy Young race if Johan goes to NL!
16. Grady Sizemore: I don't think he goes 30/30, but he could.
17. David Ortiz: With the knee fixed, the extra power resumes.
18. Ichiro Suzuki: A must-get if you plan on taking Adam Dunn later.
19. Prince Fielder: I still think Ryan Howard has more upside though.
20. Brandon Phillips: Time for everyone to believe this is legit.
21. Ryan Braun: With the steals, could make the case for round one.
22. Carlos Beltran: It's not like he's too old to steal some bases.
23. Mark Teixeira: Capable of hitting anywhere, and could hit 40.
24. Lance Berkman: Go middle infield first, and he's still around later.
25. Carlos Lee: I admit he's a steal this late. Look at his stats, and Vlad's.

1. First off, Arod number #1. How's that limb look, Karabull? Don't want to venture out on it, eh? I wonder who he went out on a limb with last year, Pujols? I say take Reyes. But that will have to wait for a future column.

2. Hanley Ramirez is a bold pick for number two. Completely asinine, but bold nevertheless. Has anyone seen Hanley swing? Anyone worried about his shoulder that he hurts once a month when he swings? Yeah, me too.

3. If I see Jose Reyes at number three, I would take him gleefully. If the top two guys in your league skip Jose, they're morons or they work for ESPN.

4. David Wright sucks donkey feces. Sure, he'll get you 25/25 but so will Rollins with much more speed upside. To paraphrase Ralph Kramden, "Karabull!!!"

5. Pujols has an off year (that wasn't that off). His first off year in the majors and he drops to five. I hope none of Karabull's kiddies comes home with a B-. Off to boarding school with Tristan Cockcrap's thumb suckers.

6. Jimmy Rollins makes sense at sixth. The next one will blow your mind.

7. Soriano?!?!? Dude, between you and me. Let someone else take Soriano then mock them for taking him.

8. Utley, I like. Numerous reasons. Biggest reason, the guy actually seems to want to play every single inning of every single game. My man's a future MVP.

9. Cabrera just ate your draft cheat sheet. Personally, I want about six players instead of Cabrera, but he is a pure hitter. Plain and simple. Also, he loves to hug Miguel Olivo. Might be the shared name thing, might be something else. Keep an eye on it.

10. Holliday is officially priced out of "I got a steal" territory, which is a shame. He took about three non-intentional walks this year. I'd be wary. Karabull obviously wasn't, "Can't go wrong as long as he calls Coors home." Expert analysis! (Exclamation point now indicates sarcasm.)

11. Crawford is now falling into the "I got a steal" territory. As for Karabull's comment, "Extremely talented, even if this is the best he can do." No, this isn't the best he can do. He was playing hurt, Karanumbskull.

12. Vlad just got back from his third tour of Nam, or at least his legs appear that way. Don't take him.

13. Johan beats Peavy? Nah, he really doesn't actually. To use Karabull expert anlysis, "Not as long as Peavy calls Petco home and he's facing the weakest hitting division sixty percent of the time."

14. Ryan Howard at 14? Yeah, I would take that, but he's not going to be here.

15. Peavy is fantasy's newest ace. Karabull will make note of that at the end of November in '08.

16. Grady Sizemore -- see Howard, Ryan.

17. Ortiz, I'm sure there will be a Son of Sam Horn (do they actually call themselves this with a straight face?) who might take Ortiz at 17, but at strictly utility I would not. Aside, I bet Miguel Cabrera and Big Papi could hug each other for hours.

18. Ichiro at 18? Last year, this same nitwit probably (I don't feel like looking it up) ranked Ichiro somewhere between 25 and 30. He's the same guy every year. Eventually, he will slow down and you don't want to be there when that happens. Pass.

19. Prince Fielder will be at number 9 next year, you do the math. BTW, is it me or is Karabull living in 2006 for some of these choices?

20. Phillips... Ugh, can't argue with this, but I don't want him. Doesn't feel as safe as his 20th placed ranking should. I'd let someone else deal with Phillips.

21. Ryan Braun is going to be good, but he doesn't hit righties as well as I'd like to take him here. The fact Karabull's comment is saying there's a case for round one makes me even more nervous.

22-24 Carlos Beltran, Tex and Berkman... Seriously, this guy is their top analyst.

25. I want Carlos Lee above all three of the aforementioned bozos. The horse is a natural slugger.

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

How Valid is the ESPN Player Rater?

by Senior Contributing Writer Rudy Gamble

Anyone who played ESPN 2007 Fantasy Baseball last year probably had two lingering questions throughout the season:

1) Did the ESPN employees responsible for the database crash that screwed up the first two weeks’ worth of 2007 stats befall a fate worse than Harold “Harass is one word?” Reynolds (rarely insightful on Baseball Tonight but he’s like Peter F*in’ Gammons compared to replacement ex-2B Eric Young)?

2) Is the ESPN Player Rater completely incorrect or just mostly incorrect?

While we wait to see if Outside the Lines' Bob Ley or the ESPN Ombudslady answer our repeated requests for answers on question #1, we took on the challenge of question #2.

Now you may ask, “Is this a valuable exercise beyond the joy in potentially proving ESPN wrong?” Fair question. The answer is a resounding yes. One of the greatest challenges with Fantasy Baseball is determining how to compare the value of players and their statistical contributions – any idiot could tell you that A-Rod and Peavy were the best hitter and pitcher respectively but was Matt Holliday more valuable than Jimmy Rollins? Understanding the value of each of the statistics – ESPECIALLY in non-counting stats like batting average, ERA, and WHIP – helps from the draft throughout the season as rosters are juggled, free agent options are considered, and trade offers are mulled. (That being said, proving ESPN wrong was a motivating factor.)

In no particular order, here are some of the questions we have on the 2007 season that we don’t believe ESPN Player Rater correctly answers (based on 5x5 MLB Universe):

1) Who is more valuable: A-Rod (best hitter) vs. Peavy (best player)?

2) How could there be so many starting pitchers at the top? (13 in top 20, 19 in top 30) Is that valid or just faulty weighting?

3) ESPN creates a floor and ceiling of 0 (floor) and 5 (ceiling) for points per category. Does this misrepresent the contribution (or lack thereof) of players and what is the impact on player rankings? For example, how is Jose Reyes’ amazin’ 78 SBs worth the same amount of points as Josh Beckett’s merely impressive 20 wins? How is Richie Sexson’s horrific .205 batting average worth the same amount as Todd Helton’s sloth-like 0 SBs?

4) How is it possible that relievers J.J. Putz and Rafael Betancourt are worth more for ERA and WHIP than top starters like C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Brandon Webb when these relievers pitch about 1/3 of the innings as the starters?

5) Shouldn’t players at shallower positions receive bonus points – e.g, are Hanley Ramirez’s stats at SS more valuable than A-Rod’s stats for 3B?

To tackle these questions, we created our own Player Rater. See attached for the rankings and notes on the methodology we used. The methodology is nerdy and quasi-scientific - with heavy conceptual influence from Baseball Prospectus, Bill James, and other leaders in the field – but you could skip all the mathy stuff and just look at the rankings if you like.

We will answer these questions – and potentially others - over several posts. Let’s start off with the first one…

1) Who is more valuable: A-Rod (best hitter) vs. Peavy (best pitcher)?

ESPN has A-Rod #1 and Jake Peavy #2 by the slimmest of margins – 19.8 to 19.75. This order is in line with popular opinion. I’m sure if you were to do a ‘hindsight draft’ - whereby you draft based on 2007 stats – that Scott Boras’s wet dream would be picked #1 almost every time. There’s a much greater chance Peavy would go #3 or later than #1.

But is this some type of hitter/East Coast bias vs. pitcher/West Coast bias? Well, let’s look at how ESPN calculated the point totals:

A-Rod: Runs = 5, HR = 5, RBI = 5, SB=1.54, AVG=3.26
Peavy: K = 5, W = 4.75, SV = 0, ERA = 5, WHIP = 5

A-Rod led the majors in R/HR/RBI to earn the three category max of 15 points. His above average 24 SBs and .314 AVG netted him another 4.8 points. Peavy had a possible max of 20 points since Bud Black inexplicably turned to Trevor Hoffman to close games and was a win short of getting all 20 (should’ve showed up in that one-game playoff, Jake). So, maybe that’s it. Even the best starting pitchers can only contribute in 4 categories so a great 5-category hitter is more valuable.

What do our rankings say? It says Mr. Peavy is #1 by a healthy margin – 29.4 to 26.2 points. I’ll admit it – we were surprised too. Let’s look at our point allocations by category to explain it:

A-Rod: Runs = 4.9, HR = 8.3, RBI = 6.8, SB=3.2, AVG=3.0
Peavy: K = 6.8, W = 6.2, SV = -0.3, ERA = 9.3, WHIP = 7.4

This comparison is as good an opportunity as any to go over our methodological basis for crediting points (skip over if you’re mathphobic):

Rather than using a 0-5 point scale per category, we mirrored the VORP concept from Baseball Prospectus and created composite stats for what would be the best available option (BAO) at each position – e.g., what are the stats of the 11th best catcher who’d be the next best option post-draft. We then created a team full of these BAOs (kind of like a fantasy expansion team – hell, a team with Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun is much better than the MLB variety) and averaged their stats to create the BAO hitter and BAO pitcher.

We then took the team totals of our ESPN league to come up with relevant increments to award points. Our method would credit players with positive points if they performed above the BAO in a stat and negative points if they performed below (example: Magglio Ordonez was worth 7.7 AVG points while Richie Sexson was worth -4.6 points)

The increments were based on the standard deviation between our 10 teams’ totals which came out to roughly 1-2% of the average team’s total for R, HR, RBI, K, and W. SB and SV turned out around 4% of the average because team totals in these stats tend to be more widely distributed than the other counting stats (related to few players contributing the lion’s share of points – another way of explaining this is to consider the impact of 5 Wins vs. SBs and SVs on your league’s rankings. Wins would prove more valuable.). Lastly, the ratio stats – AVG, ERA, and WHIP – are around 0.5% of the average team’s total as there is much smaller % change between players (e.g., a great hitter hits .350, a bad hitter .250. That’s only a 40% difference. A-Rod hit 150% more HRs than fellow MVP candidate Mike Lowell)

These standard deviations were arbitrarily divided by 6 to create more point differential between players. For ratios, the team totals were multiplied up to reflect an individual player’s impact on the total – so a hitter would have to hit .0144 better than the BAO (assuming all 13 hitters had the same # of ABs) to raise the team’s average by the required .0011.

Lastly, we compared each player to two different types of BAOs: one specific to their position and one general (hitter or pitcher). These results were averaged together and helped to account for the fact that a BAO 1st baseman offers better stats than a BAO catcher so, all stats equal, the catcher is a more valuable hitter. (This topic will be further explored in another post. We’ve only got so much material to stretch over the offseason.)

So now let’s look at Runs vs. K’s to see this methodology in action. These make a good comparison in that the average team totals for these stats (based on our ESPN league) are nearly equal: 1150 runs and 1148 Ks.

A-Rod and Peavy led the majors in these categories (143 Rs and 240 Ks respectively) so ESPN credits each with 5 points. But the BAO hitter (who looks almost exactly like Luis Gonzalez’s stat line of .278/70/15/68/6) had 67 runs where the BAO pitcher (who looks closest to Carlos Villanueva’s season of 8 Ws/1 SV/3.94/1.35/99 K over 114 IP) had 101 K’s.

(Note: That may seem low for K’s but here’s a few other starting pitchers b/w 90 and 110 K’s that certainly saw some fantasy roster space during the season: C. Wang, G. Maddux, B. Sheets, C. Schilling, M. Mussina, J. Marquis)

So A-Rod had 76 more Runs than the BAO hitter and Peavy had 139 K’s more than the BAO in a category where teams had virtually the same average total. Another way of looking at it is that Peavy’s total would represent 20.9% of the average team’s total where A-Rod’s runs would be 12.4%.

The larger differential and impact of Peavy’s K’s vs. A-Rod’s runs are slightly curbed by the fact that Runs have a lower standard deviation which leads to crediting a point for 15.1 runs and 18.1 K’s. This nets out to 4.9 points for A-Rod’s Runs vs. 6.8 for Peavy’s K’s.

Peavy’s impact on Wins is similar to his impact in K’s and A-Rod’s HR and RBI totals net him 8.3 and 6.8 points respectively. His 24 SBs net him 3.2 points. (If anything, the ESPN total screws him – how could 24 SBs be worth only 1.5 points of 5 points, with 0 SBs equaling 0 points, given the average team only had 162 SBs?)

So it all comes down to the ratio stats (AVG, ERA, WHIP) to determine the winner.

Let’s look at A-Rod’s AVG first. To determine the impact, we start with a lineup made exclusively of BAO hitters. This group hits .2772. If we replace one BAO with A-Rod, the average goes up to .2806 – a difference of 0.0034. In addition, A-Rod had 583 ABs compared to our BAO’s 482 ABs. So A-Rod’s average has a greater impact than just 1/13th (it becomes worth about 1/11th). To account for this, we multiply his points by his # of ABs / BAO ABs (1.2). After accounting for the fact that the 3B BAO hits for a slightly higher average (.279), A-Rod’s batting average nets him 2.8 points.

Now let’s look at Peavy’s MLB-leading 2.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Adding him to a BAO team (5 starters + 4 relievers with removing a BAO composite of the two) changes the team ERA/WHIP from 3.960/1.315 to 3.719/1.272. This is a net decrease of 0.241 in ERA and 0.043 in WHIP.

How huge is this? Well, looking at our league, this would be the number of points gained in ERA by deducting .241 (1 team – 5 pts, 2 teams – 4 pts, 2 teams – 3 pts, 3 teams - 2 pts, 1 team – 1 pt, 1 team – 0 pts). If you factor in that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams had a maximum of 0, 1 , and 2 points to gain respectively, you can see that at a MINIMUM, Jake Peavy’s ERA would’ve gained a team 2 points and more likely 3+. The WHIP difference is similar in impact.

Now we compared Peavy against our BAO pitcher who is a composite of the best pitcher available. This could be a starter or reliever. What if we compared him against strictly the BAO starter (the 51st best starter)? This would reduce the impact of Peavy’s Wins and K’s but would actually INCREASE the impact of his ERA and WHIP. Why? Because starters pitch more innings than relievers and tend to give up more runs and baserunners. The BAO starter has an ERA of 4.15 and WHIP of 1.34 (closest comparison – Carlos Silva) where the BAO reliever is at an ERA of 3.31 and WHIP of 1.24. Compared to the BAO Starter, his ERA is worth 9.9 ‘position points’ but 8.6 ‘player points’ for an average of 9.3 points.

In summary, we would say Jake Peavy was the MVP of 2007 Fantasy Baseball (5x5, MLB Universe) over A-Rod. While A-Rod had two high contributing categories (HR and RBI), one strong (Runs), and two above average (SB and AVG), Peavy has four high contributing categories with his ERA and WHIP point total of 16.7 dwarfing his closest competitors (Santana = 11.3, Sabathia = 11.2).

While we wouldn’t have the nut sack to draft Peavy #1 in a 2008 draft (pitching is less predictable than hitting), he’d be our choice for #1 in a ‘hindsight’ draft. And if you can’t even manage 20/20 hindsight, how can you expect to see clearly into the future...
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Top 10 Shortstops 2007

1. Hanley Ramirez
.332/125/29/81/51
If it wasn't for Arod's insane year, everyone would be talking about the year Hanley Ramirez had. Oh, and you didn't have to draft him in the 1st round. Look at those numbers again. One homer off a 30/50 season? That's insane. Experts have been calling for a 30/50 season from Carl Crawford for the last two years. And he's an outfielder! A 29/50 season from a shortstop? I have a friend who drafted Michael Young right before Hanley went off the board. His emails went something like this, "Michael Young is on pace for a 5/5 season and it's f**cking July?! Why didn't I draft Hanley?" Not to mention, Hanley may be Latin but he doesn't look eight years older than he's listed at. I'm looking at you Pujols, David Ortiz and Kim Kardashian. C'mon, she's 27? She looks like she's in her thirties. Though she's one of those that will look exactly the same age for fifteen years then, suddenly, she'll look her age and it will be very disconcerting. Think Suzanne Somers.

2. Jimmy Rollins
.296/139/30/94/41
Let's look at what he has going for him -- speed and enough power for Citizen's Bank, batting in front of Utes and Howard, an ego the size of a Cheesecake Factory entree, wanting to prove that the media is wrong by turning the best SS award automatically over to Reyes, no longer sporting braids and he gets about 1,000 at-bats a year. What's not to like? This might be his peak and everyone calls him J-Rol. Can we call a moratorium on shortening names like this? It feels so forced and arbitrary. Man-Ram was cute, I wish sportscasters would shorten Felix Hernandez to F-Her, Arod is fitting, but when is enough enough? Cole Hamels to C-Ham? Justin Morneau to Just-Morn? Carlos Marmol to Car-Ma? Actually, I like Car-Ma and I predict at some point soon Car-Ma will catch up to Ryan Dempster.

3. Jose Reyes
.280/119/12/57/78
Disclaimer: I don't like the Mets, but I love to watch Reyes play. Makes things difficult when you're hoping for him to score yet you don't want anyone on the team to get an RBI. "C'mon, double play from Wright!"

4. Troy Tulowitzki
.291/104/24/99/7
(I had to look up how to spell his last name, but didn't need to look up Kardashian. Hmm...) Let's not forget, he started awful. Dreadful. People were talking about bringing back "Deer Meat" Barmes. Yet, he still finished with great numbers. You probably drafted him so low(itzki) that rather than worry about the slow(itzki) start, you dropped him. Hopefully to pick him up again. Assuming you didn't pay too(lowitzki) much for him, you got value. This might be the last year that you'll be able to get him so low(itzki). (Sorry if that last paragraph was as confusing to read as it was to write. Sometimes things don't work, but you get so caught up in them you continue to force a round peg into a square hole.)

5. Carlos Guillen
.296/86/21/102/13
(See Top Ten 1st Basemen) Maybe C-Guile? "C-Guile is sneaky fast!"

6. Derek Jeter
.322/102/12/73/15
If only you had drafted him in the third round of your Fantasy Shortstops Who Date Hot Girls League. Sorry no Jessica Alba category in most leagues, though his conquests must play some sort of role in where he is drafted every year. Cause the numbers are, well, okay. Eighth round okay. Enough has been written about Jeter, moving on...

7. Orlando Cabrera
.301/101/8/86/20
Honestly, I didn't realize his numbers were so mediocre. See, I live in So-Cal and to watch a City of Anaheim 'Burb of Los Angeles Angels game, you would think Cabrera had an MVP season. Rex Hudler loves him some Cabrera. Here's hoping Hud was in your league and took him before you. Nah, that's just backlash. He had a decent season for an MI spot.

8. Michael Young
.315/80/9/94/13
Michael "I should've taken Hanley!" Young had a typical year for Julio Lugo. Not sure how you bat second or third on the Rangers and only score 80 runs. Offensive ballpark and he had over 200 hits. How do you do that? Oh, that's right Sammy Sosa, Brad Wilkerson, Jason Botts, Marlon Byrd were batting behind him. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Texas Rangers!

9. Edgar Renteria
.332/87/12/57/11
Okay, the RBIs were low, but you didn't have to pay much to get these numbers. Not to mention, he was injured for about two months so if you slotted in someone else while he was DL-ed, you padded the above stats. But praising Renteria is like praising Vanilla Ice Cream. You know what you're getting.

10. J.J. Hardy
.277/89/26/80/2
Personally, I like his numbers better than Michael "I should've taken Hanley!" Young. His .277 wasn't crippling, his 26 homers were excellent for SS and his RBIs and runs weren't bad at all. Not to mention, you had to draft Michael "I should've taken Hanley!" Young about twenty rounds earlier. I wouldn't go as far to say J.J. was dy-no-mite, but you could've done worse. Speaking of which...

Tejada had his consecutive game streak broken and you wasted a really high pick and Furcal absolutely killed teams this year. Furcal actually had a bad year for Julio Lugo.
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