Top Twenty 1st Basemen For 2008

Yesterday, we went over the top twenty catchers for ‘08 to draft here to add to our top ten overall and our 11 thru 20 draft list. Thankfully, we’re moving onto a meatier position as we go around the horn to our 1st basemen draft list for 2008. Also, if you want to check out our 2007 Player Rater, it’s here. Yeah, screw you ESPN and your ESPN Player Rater. Or look at that one here. We forgive you.

1. Albert Pujols See the top ten.

2. Prince Fielder See the top ten.

3. Ryan Howard See 11-20.

4. Travis Hafner – Pronk listed here might get me the most grief, but last year was not the norm with only 24 homers and a .266 average. I see a major bounce back. Besides having the best nickname currently in baseball, he can mash in the middle of great lineup, he knows how to take a walk and he has an indeterminate race. If Hafner doesn’t have 1st base eligibility in your league, I’d move him below the next three. Projections: 100/40/110/.300

5. Mark Teixeira – With a last name that hard to spell, he better be good. So, it’s I before X, except after… Whatever. His 1st halfs have not been what they should for two years now. Starting to look like a trend, but he still has good pop in his bat, just don’t expect 43 homers again. BTW, I need to add an FYI here. FYI, Tex, Derrek and Berkman are very close in value. They ended up in this order because Tex is the youngest and has the most upside, Derrek has a better lineup than Berkman, and Berkman’s at #7 because he seems racist to me. (I wonder what Berkman would think of Hafner?) But I digress. Tex’s Projections: 110/35/120/.305

6. Derrek Lee – In the 2nd half last year, he finally regained his power that was so badly missing after his wrist injury. Post-All-Star break in ’07, he hit 16 of his 22 homers. Watch this trend continue into ‘08. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5

7. Lance Berkman – The addition of Tejada can’t hurt. Maybe he can introduce Lance to the clear or the cream or whatever it is they’re flagellating on themselves nowadays. I don’t think we’re ever gonna see ’06 type numbers from him again, so act accordingly. Projections: 100/30/115/.310/5

8. Justin Morneau – He doesn’t take enough walks to grab those MVP numbers ever again, but he is young and has enough natural ability to put up nice numbers. Beware of his average, he won’t hit .300 without a whole lot of luck. Projections: 90/35/110/.275

9. Adrian Gonzalez – On one hand, he plays at Petco. On the other hand, he’ll be only 26 in ’08. And on your final hand, assuming you have three hands, I can’t imagine anyone hitting 40 homers at Petco, so we’re looking at a ceiling of 35 homers. Not awful, but he did strikeout a lot from June on last year. Projections: 90/33/105/.280

10. Paul Konerko – The White Sox flat out stunk last year. Nothing went right. Konerko’s season was no different. He’ll only be 32 in ’08. Look for a bounce back, but keep expectations in line. He’s not going to hit 40-plus and .300-plus. Projections: 90/35/110/.275

11. Carlos Pena – I wanted to rank him higher, but my better senses wouldn’t let me. He needs to do what he did last year again before he moves up the rankings, but he might come as a steal in some drafts. Then again, he might be one of the bigger busts of ‘08. No risk, no reward, but remember he was allergic to walks before last year. I don’t trust him and won’t have him on any of my teams. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.

12. Todd Helton – He has no upside, but, fortunately, I don’t see much downside either. He’s about as unexciting as a 1st basemen can be while still offering something of value. Projections: 90/15/90/.315

13. Carlos Guillen – The people over at Faketeams.com have Guillen way higher than this at number three overall for 1B. They run a good site, but on this point, I think they missed the mark. Their thesis statement is Guillen will give you a little bit of everything. That’s true. It fails to realize there’s much more reliance on power at 1st base. As you can see from our article, How Do You Value Fantasy Hitters?, the Best Available Option at 1B beats Guillen’s 162 game average in homers and nearly equals in RBIs. Not to mention, Guillen isn’t young and he is often injured. Now if you’re using Guillen at SS or MI, then that’s a different story. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8

14. Kevin Youkilis – Is it me or does he look like he should be hitting 35 homers every year? Well, he won’t. He needs to hit twenty first. Projections (assuming he’s at the top of the lineup instead of the six hole):115/21/90/.290/3

15. Nick Swisher – We finally got some great upside here as Swisher takes his carefree attitude over to the White Sox and gets to hit in a much better lineup. He needs to stabilize his average, which is odd for a man with a good eye, but there’s major sleeper potential here. I’m high on Swisher this year and these numbers are low-balling him. Projections: 95/30/100/.275

16. Mike Jacobs – Here’s some more upside for you. The Marlins will be dreadful, but Jacobs could be a bright spot. Jacobs maintained a 2:1 BB:K last year as he struggled with a thumb injury. This year could be the year the power comes-a-callin’. I think it is. Projections: 70/30/95/.285

17. Carlos Delgado – The best has left the building. As someone who watched more Mets games last year than I care to admit, Delgado flounders against lefties to the point where I think a platoon might work. And, if the Mets don’t do a platoon, you should seriously consider sitting him against lefties if you draft him. Projections: 70/28/95/.260

18. Adam LaRoche – In December of ’07, he had his 2nd MRI on his knee and decided to rest rather than surgery. This is not a good thing. Avoid him and go for one of the next three if you find yourself scrambling for a 1st basemen in the later rounds. Projections: 70/27/100/.265

19. James Loney – He’ll be 24 in ’08 and he has the natural skills to take him to the top ten of 1st basemen for ’09. Major sleeper potential. Hopefully, Torre plays him like he should. Every day. Projections: 95/22/85/.315

20. Casey Kotchman – Well, it only took him a year and a half to recover from mono (Magic beat AIDS in less time). This is the year Kotchman lives up to the potential. Projections: 80/22/80/.300

21. Ryan Garko – Meat, I couldn’t not tell you to get on the Garko wagon. He may not break camp as the starter, but keep a close eye on him. Projections (if he starts by May): 65/27/80/.280

After the 21, lots of people obviously, but avoid:

Richie Sexson – Last year was an aberration. He won’t be that bad again in ’08. You still don’t want to draft him. He’s a batting average drain when he’s playing well. Find thirty homers elsewhere. You’re welcome.

Tomorrow, the top twenty second basemen for 2008.

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Top Ten Overall for 2008

In 2007, Jake Peavy was the top overall player according to our player rater with Alex Rodriguez coming in a close second. Of course, pitching is less reliable, so looking ahead to your 2008 fantasy baseball draft, how should you draft? Here’s my top 10. Tomorrow, 11 thru 20.

1. Alex Rodriguez – Maybe you despise his natural ability, maybe the New York Media has convinced you he’s not as good as you think, but his worst season of the last five seasons was in 2006 when he gave you 113/35/121/.290/15. If he gives you those numbers again, he’s not causing you to lose your fantasy league. There’s safety in Arod, no matter what you feel about him personally. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305

2. Jose Reyes – He placed only twenty-three on our player rater last year, but finding 30 home runs later in the draft will be easier than finding 30 steals. With Reyes’s 70 steals, you won’t have to worry about steals later. Projections: 130/14/70/.295/70

3. Albert Pujols – His numbers last year were down, definitely. They were still 99/32/103/.327/2. His lineup doesn’t look any better going into 2008, but his lineup wasn’t very good in 2006 when he carried his team to the World Series. He’s a tremendous talent that is still only 28 (in Latin years that may be 35, but that’s a different discussion). Projections: 110/40/115/.330/2

4. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Remember what Helton used to do in his prime years? But Holliday won’t hit .340 again. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/7

5. David Wright – The Mets love to run and it doesn’t appear like Wright is slowing down just yet. 30 steals might be asking a lot, but there’s a good chance his power will continue to grow. Projection: 115/34/120/.310/20

6. Hanley Ramirez – He’s a talent, no doubt. But his offseason shoulder surgery is something to be aware of. He’s not higher on this list because of reasons stated here. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45

7. Jake Peavy – Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, the best pitcher currently in the game. If you have balls to take him first or second, I can’t argue with it. I’m ball-less. Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05

8. Miguel Cabrera – He’s a hitting savant and he’s on Trimspa. The change of leagues doesn’t worry me, as it will be negated by the more than legit lineup now surrounding him. Projections: 110/35/125/.315/4

9. Chase Utley – Weak position, monster lineup, great ability, fierce determination. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12

10. Prince Fielder – Case could be made for a lot of people in this slot. Johan Santana, Ryan Braun, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, Brandon Webb, but they’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the eleven to twenty rankings. Prince is young, is a safe pick to repeat last year’s monster season and has a huge backside upside. Projections: 115/50/125/.285

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Names NOT in The Mitchell Report

The blog is about fantasy baseball, but it’s sometimes hard to ignore what goes on in the real baseball world. Frankly, if we weren’t baseball fans first, we wouldn’t give a rat’s ass about fantasy baseball. So, with a heavy heart I write, yesterday was a tough day to be a fan. Taint on lots of big names, past and present -- Bonds, Clemens, Pettitte, McGwire, Bagwell, Gagne, Sosa, Justice, Tejada and, um, F.P. Santangelo. The list goes on for pages. If you want to read The Mitchell Report in its entirety, you can here. It’s lengthy and pretty depressing, kinda like if Ken Burns did a seven-part documentary on Tonya from The Real World. But today is a new day, and I’m going to try and put a positive spin on things. Here is a list of some players NOT in The Mitchell Report. If you will, a tribute.

Greg Maddux – 347 wins going into 2008. In 1998, while McGwire racked up 70 homers, Maddux went 18-9 with a 2.22 ERA and 208 strikeouts. Good to hear the Padres are bringing him back for another year. Maybe he’ll pass Clemens on the all-time wins list.

Tom Glavine – 303 wins, 2570 career Ks, and a lifetime 3.51 ERA. In 1998, Sosa hit 66 homers, but went 0 for 4 against Glavine with three strikeouts. In the Cubs second game against Glavine in 1998, Sosa sat out to give Matt Mieske some at-bats.

Randy Johnson – 4616 career strikeouts. Hopefully, he can make it back for his 300th win. It would be nice to see. In 2001, while Bonds hit 73 homers, Randy struck out 372 batters, which is eleventh most for a season and the most since Nolan Ryan in 1973.

Pedro Martinez – From 1997 to 2003, the heart of the having-a-trainer-inject-my-ass-with-something era, Pedro had ERAs of 1.90, 2.89, 2.07, 1.74, 2.39, 2.226 and 2.22 respectively.

Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera – Combined they have over 900 saves and zero mentions in The Mitchell Report. What’s that? Gagne had trouble bouncing back day after day? Trevor smiles at Mariano then, “Try it for twelve years.”

Cy Young Winners from 1996 ‘til present – Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, John Smoltz, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay and Barry Zito.

Alex Rodriguez – Canseco claims Arod should be in the Mitchell Report, but he’s not. I say we give him the benefit of the doubt. BTW, he’s arguably the best hitter in the game. When you’re in that argument, you’re pretty good.

Albert Pujols – See that premature balding is hereditary! BTW, second best hitter in the game.

Todd Helton – In 2001, he batted 132/49/146/.336. Too bad it was overshadowed.

Vladimir Guerrero – Some players medicate when they’re hobbled by injuries, some hobble. Here’s one for the hobblers.

Ichiro Suzuki – For not being in The Mitchell Report -- arrigato.

Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder – If they test positive, it’s because their steak was injected on the way to the slaughterhouse.

Frank Thomas – Okay, so he’s the Henry Hill of all of this, but it’s still a shame his 500 home runs came at a time when that was a ticket for Copperstown consideration and not a ticket to Copperstown.

Manny Ramirez – The thought of Manny trying to inject himself with something is ludicrous. Actually, the thought of Manny thinking is pretty ludicrous, but Manny get a hug from Big Papi for not being in The Report.

David Ortiz – While we’re here, someone Big Papi wasn’t hugging was McNamee.

Ken Griffey Jr. – Maybe if Griffey took the shortcut many of colleagues did to help recuperate from injury, he would be approaching 800 home runs. Maybe his self-respect meant too much.

I wish these players above had received more recognition then and now. There’s lots of names I’m failing to mention. Please feel free to comment below some names that weren’t on The Mitchell Report.

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Top 10 1st Basemen 2007

1. Prince Fielder
For lack of a better word, his season was: FAT. .288/109/50/119/2
The most surprising number there is the 2 steals. Was fielder's indifference not scored properly? Love to hear from readers if they witnessed either of Prince's steals. Anywho, the ladies love the long ball, so, by contractual obligation, they love Prince.

2. .282/99/46/121/1
You wanted this to be Ryan Howard, you were assuming it would be at the very least Pujols. But surprise, surprise, it's Carlos Pena. .282/99/46/121/1 were numbers you would had been very pleased with at the beginning of the season from your first round Pujols or Howard selection. From a guy you picked off of waivers? Depending on when you swiped him, you probably finished no worse than third in your league. This is the kind of player that wins leagues. You waste no draft choice and (Frank Voila!) you have 46 homers and 121 RBIs. Nice.

3. Ryan Howard
.268/94/47/136/1
Eh, you got what you paid for. That is, if you had patience during his DL stint. Where you probably had to take him (1st round), he didn't win or lose leagues. Sure, it would've been nice to get an extra ten home runs. Okay, .268 was a bit low, but you had to expect that with the way he strikes out and his lucky BABIP in '06.

4. Albert Pujols
.327/99/32/103/2
Isn't he good for 130 runs? Wait, wasn't this the year he was going to hit 50 homers? Barely cracking 100 RBIs? Pretty disappointing year from what was arguably the consensus 1st pick of every draft. Maybe he was trying to do too much and will be better next year? Maybe LaRussa will bat him eighth next year and the pitcher third? Maybe next year he'll admit to really being 38 years old and this year will all make sense?

5. Lance Berkman
.278/95/34/102/7
He came on strong towards the tail end of the season, but, wow, he was bad most of the year. Like Britney at the VMAs bad? No, like Britney as a mother bad.

6. Mark Teixeira
.306/86/30/105/0
At some point you have to think his '05 year might be his peak. The trade to the Braves didn't seem to adversely effect (BTW, is it effect or affect here? Someone let me know, thanks.) his numbers, but this is the second year in a row that his entire first half of the year DID adversely a(e)ffect his numbers. These numbers are great from someone taken in the twelfth round. He went on average in the 3rd. And his last name is impossible to spell. Why is there an i before the x? Moving on...

7. Adrian Gonzalez
.282/101/30/100/0
Here most people got value. Sure, he barely got over .280 thanks in part to a great start and great finish. And, you're right, 100/30/100 seemed to be his floor not ceiling. But at least you got those numbers and he shouldn't have came at a huge price. You didn't take him in the fourth round, didja? You did? Well, shame on you.

8. Carlos Guillen
.296/86/21/102/13
With 8 games played at 1st in '06, you probably didn't draft him to be your first baseman. Frankly, you might have only drafted him as your middle with his injury history. But with power numbers down across the board, Guillen could have been moved to 1st in the middle of the year and you wouldn't have lost much.

9. Derrek Lee
.317/91/22/82/6
What a bust. He helped for part of the year with his inflated average, but that came down to earth in the 2nd half of the year and you were left with Lyle Overbay numbers. If you passed picking up Pena because you had this guy manning 1st, you probably lost your league. How does a guy batting third for a division winning team finish with 82 RBIs? Oh, that's right, Soriano's OBP.

10. Victor Martinez
.301/78/25/114/0
You drafted him as your catcher, so I gotta say this was a tremendous year. Everything you could've wanted. Frankly, his numbers look better than Derrek Lee. (The 6 steals are what barely puts Lee above.)

And, by the way, there were first basemen that were worse. Busts: Morneau, Delgado, Konerko, Hafner (depending on your eligibility requirements). Overall, a down year from 1st. A usually dependable position that solidifies the offense and bulks the power numbers saw a league-wide power shortage that really hurt 1st.
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