Previously, we went through the top ten overall fantasy baseball draft list for 2008 and the top twenty first basemen. Well, an interesting thing happened on the way to spring training. Last Friday, while Pujols was bitching about how his accomplishments aren't tainted, he also reported something else that was going on last year. The papers reported this:
Pujols said he decided against offseason surgery on his right elbow, a trouble spot for several years, because he would have had to miss a significant portion if not all the 2008 season. Pujols still is unable to straighten his arm, but team doctors concluded that because he plays first base, an operation can be postponed. He said his elbow bothered him the second half of last season, and said if that happens again he wouldn't try to soldier through it.
If we can be armchair psychologists real fast, Pujols was upset that no one was giving him credit for his stellar seasons and whispering that steroids were involved. So to silence the critics, he said he’s not only been fantastic, but he’s been playing with a non-functioning arm. Then Pujols threatens to no longer play with a crooked elbow and will hang up his spikes, if he doesn’t get the proper love from said jackass critics.
Either way, Pujols’s elbow was hurting him and this isn’t good for Pujols’s owners. The elbow might be the reason for the down year in 2007. If the same pain continues in the 2008, Pujols might fight through it or he might elect for surgery. These draft lists are in no way set in stone, and Pujols draft spot needs to be corrected. Does this drop Pujols out of the top twenty overall? Are you better off drafting Lyle Overbay? No and don’t be stupid. I would move Pujols to late in the first round, right after Miguel Cabrera, or number eight on the top ten 2008 draft list.
Previously, we covered the top ten and twenty overall draft picks. Then we went onto the top twenty 1st basemen and 2nd basemen to draft. Now, we cover the top twenty third basemen. 3rd base is stacked with talent, Pete Nice and MC Serch notwithstanding. To contrast and compare, you can look at our 2007 Player Rater here.
4. B.J. Upton – (Here’s what I said about B.J. when he placed 3rd overall for the top twenty 2nd basemen.) ...His BABIP was leprechaunian so the average will drop a bit, but he’s a young Soriano. Speed, power, quick wrists. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27 5. Ryan Braun – Here’s what I said when not placing Braun in the top twenty overall: He’ll probably go before “after 20,” but that’s fine. You don’t want him in ’08. For every McGwire Rookie of the Year, there’s a dozen woulda-shouldas. Let someone else deal with the possible headache, because as stated here by The Baseball Analysts:
The only disconcerting split involves (Braun's) BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP.
As you can see, I’m not completely down on Braun, because I am placing him fifth overall at 3rd base. Just be careful about overvaluing him. Since the top twenty overall was written, he will now play outfield. This will give him position flexibility, so he’s a bit more valuable. I still wouldn’t go overboard. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
6. Aramis Ramirez – As I wrote here, he’s in for a big rebound. To summarize what was written, he had wrist problems for half the season and then started clubbing homers in September as he started to feel well. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
7. Garrett Atkins – Those buckteeth are magnificent, aren’t they? His pre- and post-All-Star splits were bad for average(.259/.349), but they were pretty even for power(13/12). He didn’t take it to the next level in ’07 like some predicted, but he’s still only 28. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
8. Mike Lowell – Everything broke right for Mr. Lowell last year. Every time he came up with runners on, he was dyn-o-mite. .406 average with men on first and second. .615 average with men on second and third. .318 average with the bases loaded. He batted forty points above his career average on the season at the age of 33 (He looks like he might be in his 40s.). The Green Mawnster is a haven for a rightie doubles hitter, so maybe the drop off won’t be that bad, but expect a drop off. Projections: 75/20/105/.290/3 9. Chipper Jones – Not sure I understand the allure of Chipper. Feel he gets some sort of boost on name value. He’s long past the days of hitting 30 home runs and you’re begging for 100 RBIs. His eye is impeccable, so you’re getting someone that will avoid prolonged slumps, but you’re not getting any upside whatsoever. Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
10. Alex Gordon – Member what you thought Zimmerman would do last year? Well, Gordon’s gonna do it this year. I think the hype Braun’s getting this offseason, Gordon will be getting in ’09. You missed Braun last year; don’t miss Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
11. Adrian Beltre – I had him on one team when he had his I’m-playing-for-a-contract season. I will never have him again. He’s a nightmare of inconsistency. Six homers one month, 1 homer and a below .200 average another month. He’ll drive you mad. Projections: 85/25/85/.260/7 12. Kevin Kouzmanoff – He really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half of last year and he’s hitting third this year (as long as he doesn’t repeat his 1st half from last year). He always knew how to take a walk in the minors, and I think he can do the same in the bigs. Here’s to high hopes. Projections: 90/27/105/.285
13. Ryan Zimmerman – He had wrist surgery in November of ’07. His team is better offensively this year than last, but… He had wrist surgery. Do you really wanna be messin’ with this? Come back to him in ’09, he’ll still only be 25. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
14. Chone Figgins – You want Juan Pierre at 3rd base? Follow along, if you have five home runs from your 3rd baseman, you better have someone hitting 50 home runs elsewhere. Also, last year’s average was an aberration. There’s a time and a place for Figgins. You find yourself falling behind in steals. Trade for him, get a boost in steals and then trade him away. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
15. Edwin Encarncion – Maybe I’m effin’ crazy, but I like Encarncion. He’s not winning a batting title or the Roberto Clemente Award. The Cincinnati Reds may trade him because he sucks at being a teammate and Dusty may get fed up, but if he gets his ABs he could surprise you. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
17. Troy Glaus – A pothole at 3rd base. I was going to leave him off completely, but I thought people would rise up in revolt. Avoid Glaus at all costs, especially if he ends up on the Cardinals. A switch of leagues could mean a .240 average. Projections: 65/22/70/.255 and LaRussa offers to be his designated driver by the All-Star break. 18. Ty Wigginton – If you’re taking Wiggs, you’re not trying hard enough. This late into a position, go for a high upside guy. Such as #19 or #20. Ty’s Projections: 70/20/70/.270
19. Evan Longoria – Iwamura’s going to 2nd base and Morgan Ensberg’s gonna play 3rd. Or Evan Longoria. Let’s see, who will be playing there, Ensberg or Longoria? Now think about how the Rays bungled Upton and Young in the minors. Leaving them there about a season too long. So Longoria might not be playing in the majors this year, but this is a spring training decision for you to make. If you’re drafting now, you have to take a flyer. Projections: 70/20/75/.285 and he’s manning 3rd base from May until October.
20. Andy LaRoche – He’s done all there is to do in the minors by the age of 23. It’s him or Nomar. Please, Torre, put Nomar out to pasture. Mia needs help with the kids. Projections: 60/22/75/.310/5
After the “top twenty,” plenty obviously, but one I like that there was no room for is:
Casey Blake – He’ll come super cheap and you can do a lot worse. He’s on a good offensive team and his manager knows how to use him. Don’t expect the world, but in AL-only, you draft him. Projections: 75/20/75/.270/5
Who I don’t like after the top twenty – Scott Rolen. It was a fine career. It’s over. Now go wrap yourself in an endangered mongoose coat and drive slowly by LaRussa’s home.
Tomorrow we finish the infield with the top twenty shortstops.
In 2007, Jake Peavy was the top overall player according to our player rater with Alex Rodriguez coming in a close second. Of course, pitching is less reliable, so looking ahead to your 2008 fantasy baseball draft, how should you draft? Here’s my top 10. Tomorrow, 11 thru 20.
1. Alex Rodriguez – Maybe you despise his natural ability, maybe the New York Media has convinced you he’s not as good as you think, but his worst season of the last five seasons was in 2006 when he gave you 113/35/121/.290/15. If he gives you those numbers again, he’s not causing you to lose your fantasy league. There’s safety in Arod, no matter what you feel about him personally. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – He placed only twenty-three on our player rater last year, but finding 30 home runs later in the draft will be easier than finding 30 steals. With Reyes’s 70 steals, you won’t have to worry about steals later. Projections: 130/14/70/.295/70 3. Albert Pujols – His numbers last year were down, definitely. They were still 99/32/103/.327/2. His lineup doesn’t look any better going into 2008, but his lineup wasn’t very good in 2006 when he carried his team to the World Series. He’s a tremendous talent that is still only 28 (in Latin years that may be 35, but that’s a different discussion). Projections: 110/40/115/.330/2 4. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Remember what Helton used to do in his prime years? But Holliday won’t hit .340 again. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/7
5. David Wright – The Mets love to run and it doesn’t appear like Wright is slowing down just yet. 30 steals might be asking a lot, but there’s a good chance his power will continue to grow. Projection: 115/34/120/.310/20 6. Hanley Ramirez – He’s a talent, no doubt. But his offseason shoulder surgery is something to be aware of. He’s not higher on this list because of reasons stated here. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45 7. Jake Peavy – Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, the best pitcher currently in the game. If you have balls to take him first or second, I can’t argue with it. I’m ball-less. Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
8. Miguel Cabrera – He’s a hitting savant and he’s on Trimspa. The change of leagues doesn’t worry me, as it will be negated by the more than legit lineup now surrounding him. Projections: 110/35/125/.315/4
10. Prince Fielder – Case could be made for a lot of people in this slot. Johan Santana, Ryan Braun, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, Brandon Webb, but they’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the eleven to twenty rankings. Prince is young, is a safe pick to repeat last year’s monster season and has a huge backside upside. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
1. Friends over at Inside Dodgers Baseball think the blue are out of the running for Bedard and Johan Santana. To me, this makes perfect sense. Dodgers need a bat with their lineup stacked with slap and run hitters.
In two previous articles (part 1 and part 2), we’ve laid out alternative views for judging the most valuable player in 2007 5x5 MLB fantasy baseball (we say Peavy) and for pitchers – using and abusing the ESPN Player Rater in the process.
In this article, we’re going to focus on valuing hitters. The questions we will tackle are:
1) What is the value of each hitting stat? 2) How does position depth/scarcity affect a player’s overall value? 3) How does our approach to hitter value compare against the ESPN Player Rater?
To download our player rankings for 2007, please click here. To view the ESPN Player Rater.
What is the value of each hitting stat?
Our approach towards valuing player stats is to look at two factors: 1) the difference between a player’s statistics and those provided by the best available option (BAO) on the free agent wire (which would take position depth/scarcity into account) and 2) the impact that stat difference might have on a league’s standings (ambivalent to position).
We’ll set position scarcity aside for a second to look at the composite stats for the BAO hitter in 2007: 67 Runs / 14 HR / 65 RBI / 6 SBs / .277. The closest player equivalent to these stats is Luis Gonzalez.
We used the final standings of our fantasy league to understand the impact of each statistic by looking at the standard deviations between teams’ totals. While it would be better if we had more league standings on which to base these standard deviations, we still feel this is superior to building ratios off team averages because it takes into account that some statistics have larger percentage gaps between teams vs. others. This is most evident when looking at HR vs. SB – while the average team in our league average 1.69 HRs to 1 SB and the BAO has a HR:SB ratio of 2.33:1, the observed impact on a team was actually 1:0.77 or that a HR has more value (not even counting the R/HR/RBI/AVG implications) to a team’s rank in the standings than an SB.
The ratio for these stats based on our analysis was: 3.3 Runs / 1 HR / 2.8 RBI / 1.3 SBs / .003 AVG. Points are credited based on these ratios (a point actually equals the above ratio * 4.6) after subtracting the BAO's stats.
Okay, let’s do two comparisons to show this works in action.
Eric Byrnes (103 / 21 / 83 / 50 / .286) vs. Miguel Cabrera ( 91 / 34 / 119 / 2 / .320)
This is an interesting one as it asks that inevitable question – how much are SBs really worth? Is it worth the addition 48 SBs to sacrifice those HRs, RBIs, and AVG that Miguel Cabrera provides? Let’s look at the points comparison of R/HR/RBI/AVG:
Runs: Byrnes 2.4 to 1.5 HRs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.55 RBIs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.43 AVG: Cabrera 3.48 to 1.01
(Note: While it might not look right that Cabrera’s 34 HRs could be worth 2.5x that of Eric Byrnes 21 HRs, remember that the BAO provides 14 HRs. So this is really a comparison of 20 HRs (34-14) vs. 7 HRs.)
Counting just these stats, Cabrera is about twice as valuable as Eric Byrnes (12.89 to 6.39).
But Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs is huge given the average team only had 162 SBs in our league. A total like this could let you dominate SBs or focus on non-speed guys when filling out other positions (say, taking Khalil Greene’s 27 HRs instead of J. Lugo’s 33 SBs).
Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs equates to 7.25 points in our scale while Cabrera’s 2 SBs equate to negative 0.45 points because it’s less than the BAO would’ve provided (which is 6). So factoring in SBs, Eric Byrnes is the more valuable fantasy hitter (13.6 to 12.4). But if your team was set for SBs, trading Eric Byrnes for Miguel Cabrera would be a no-brainer.
This comparison focuses on Polanco’s AVG contribution vs. Uggla’s power contribution.
Runs: Uggla 2.65 to 2.12 HRs: Uggla 4.0 to -0.78 RBIs: Uggla 1.94 to 0.30 SBs: Polanco -0.05 to -0.86
(Note: These comparisons do factor in position scarcity – hence, Uggla’s 2 SBs receive more negative credit that M. Cabrera’s above since the 2B BAO steals more than the average player.)
Counting these stats, Uggla is well ahead at 7.73 to 1.59 points, with the biggest driver being his 31 HRs which are worth 4.78 points more than Polanco’s 9 HRs.
But those HRs come at a price. Uggla’s .245 average is well below the BAO average of .277 (actually 2B’s have higher AVG than other positions so it’s even worse – examples of high batting average marginal 2Bs include Orlando Hudson’s .294, Luis Castillo’s .301, and Ronnie Belliard’s .290). Combining that bad average with his above average AB total (632), Uggla’s average would drop the average team’s AVG by .004 vs. the BAO 2B. This earns him a negative 3.28.
On the other hand, Polanco’s .341 in 587 ABs is worth a positive 4.77 points – more, in fact, than Uggla’s 31 HRs. He’s worth about an extra .004 on your team average meaning that swapping these two creates a .008 swing, a more dramatic swing than the 22 HR difference.
So while Placido Polanco is a negative on a team’s HR and SBs (and just about BAO level on RBIs), his high AVG catapults him into being a more valuable fantasy baseball contributor (6.4 to 4.4). If Uggla could just get to something like a .275 average or steal 20-30 SBs, his HR/RBIs could help catapult him up the 2B rankings (even with the anchor-like AVG, he ended up 7th most valuable 2B, well ahead of the .317 hitting ROY Dustin Pedroia).
How does position depth/scarcity affect a player’s overall value?
Position depth/scarcity plays a role from draft day through the end of the season.
During draft day, position depth/scarcity can increase/decrease a player’s value. A common practice is to ‘tier’ players at each position and try to group together similarly valued players. If there is only one player left in, say, the 2B tier and 5 similar valued players at SS, you may increase that 2B’s draft value because you can wait a round and likely get one of those shortstops.
After the draft, position depth/scarcity is used to compare the marginal benefit/loss of trading or adding/dropping one player over the next – e.g., I could trade Placido Polanco and replace him with little to no dropoff in any stat except AVG.
To factor this into our analysis, we extended our Best Available Option (BAO) concept to each position. We started with 10 rostered players for catchers and infield positions and 50 outfielders. We split the 1B/3B and 2B/SS positions equally and then divided up the utility position based on instinct and position depth (30% 1B, 2.5% 2B, 2.5% SS, 5% 3B, 0% C, 40% OF, 20% DH). We created composite stats for BAOs at each position – so for catcher, we took the 11th best AVG, 11th best HRs, etc. We then credited point totals based on the BAO at the position (“Position Points”) and averaged them with our average hitter BAO (“Player Points”). (Note: Since team rankings are position-agnostic – you don’t get more credit if it’s a middle infielder who hits a HR – there is a need to balance position depth/scarcity with overall stats. To keep it simple, we weighted it 50/50).
Below are the BAO stats per position (R / HR / RBI / SB / AVG) and some close statistical fits:
The most interesting about these BAO totals is how relatively close they are. The corner positions have a slight advantage in power and the middle infield spots have a slight advantage for runs, SBs and average. Catchers are weakest – particularly in Runs as catchers play less games and are disproportionately hitting 6th to 9th (less run opportunities).
Perhaps most surprisingly, the OF position looks no better than the middle infield positions. Wouldn’t you expect OF was a deeper position than middle infield? Isn’t BJ Upton more valuable as a 2B than an OF? Short answer: not really.
Here’s why: You’ve got roughly 15 2B, 15 SS, and somewhere between 52-57 outfielders on league rosters (OF are often used for UTIL positions). Looking at MLB rosters, you have roughly 30 starting 2B, 30 starting SS, and 90 starting OFs. FLB rosters, thus, are cutting deeper into the percentage of starting OFs vs. 2B/SS.
In addition, 2B/SS have added some pop over the years. 29 middle infielders hit at least 12 HRs. Granted, some had bad averages (Bill Hall, Juan Uribe, Stephen Drew), but the perception of those positions being power-challenged is outdated. (What IS true, though, is that it’s rare to find a middle infielder with 30+ HR power).
Outfielders, on the other hand, aren’t that deep. Only about 55 hit 15 or more home runs and that includes some players that might be at other positions (Berkman, Upton, Stairs) and the weakest ones look an awful lot like Luis Gonzalez and Austin Kearns (the BAO matches).
So while we did factor position depth/scarcity into our analysis, it really didn’t play a major role for hitters. The greatest impact was at catcher where the troika of great catchers in 2007 (Jorge Posada, V-Mart, Russell Martin) got about a 2 point boost because the Catcher position was the weakest in terms of BAO.
So Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins had extremely valuable fantasy years but the fact they played SS really didn’t add any significant value (maybe +2-3%).
How does our approach to hitter value compare against the ESPN Player Rater?
ESPN has a much simpler approach for estimating hitter value than the approach we have described above. It creates a cap at 5 points and a floor at 0 points. 5 points are awarded to the MLB leader in the stat and then each other player’s total is divided into the leader’s total and then multiplied by 5 to get their total – e.g., A-Rod led with 54 homers. David Wright had 30. He received 30/54 (.556) * 5 = 2.78 points in HR. Average is done in a slightly more complex way but the lowest possible total is zero (even if the player’s average has negative value).
From a macro-perspective, this simplistic approach works fine. The top hitters are going to appear near the top, the okay hitters in the middle, the bad hitters on the bottom. At a micro-perspective, we think ESPN’s simplistic approach has greater flaws vs. our approach. These flaws are less for hitters than pitchers, though, as the greater issues arise around ratio/average based stats and pitchers have two (ERA, WHIP) vs. one for hitters (AVG).
1) Capping High Points at 5 2) Positive Ratio/Average Contributions Are Undercredited 3) Negative Contributions Aren’t Penalized 4) Overcrediting of Slightly Above Average Performance
These four issues all play a role for valuing hitters but #2 and #3 are not as major an issue because ERA/WHIP are more polarizing than AVG. For example, even low value hitters may hit .290 but only a great starting pitcher can manage an ERA near 3.00 ERA.
An additional issue we’ve found is:
5) The league leader used as the points base distorts the distribution of points – While the leader in Runs and RBIs is relatively close to the other leaders (no one had, say, 200 Runs or RBIs), A-Rod’s 54 HRs and Reye’s otherworldly 78 SBs set a very high bar for 5 points. This creates odd situations where Eric Byrnes 50 SBs (tied for 4th in majors) is worth less in ESPN Player Points than his 103 Runs (outside the top 20) and Jimmy Rollins’ 30 HRs (tied for 20th) are worth less than his 94 RBIs (tied for 42nd).
Here is the assessment on a stat by stat basis:
Runs – Overcredits for all players. For above average performance, Issue #4 plays a role (the Best Available Option’s 67 Runs warrants 2.3 points). For below average performance, Issue #3 starts taking effect (less than 67 runs should warrant negative points). An additional issue throughout is that runs are so plentiful across players that the value of a run is less than other stats (A-Rod’s 143 runs warrant 4.95 points in our estimation vs. 8.29 for his 54 HRs)
Home Runs – Undercredits great performance like A-Rod and Fielder (Issue #1). Issue #5 plays a role in underestimating the value of everyone at 25+ Homers. Players between about 15-24 HRs are slightly inflated based on Issue #4. Anyone below the BAO average of 14 are overestimated based on Issue #3.
RBIs – Undercredits the great performances like A-Rod and Matt Holliday (Issue #1). Overcredits above average performance (Issue #4). Undercredits below average performance (Issue #3). Issue #4 affects more hitters than Issue #3 (which is limited to speedsters and some 2B/SS – examples are Reyes’s 57 RBIs and Pierre’s 41RBIs)
SBs – This is the category where Issues #1 and #5 play a huge role in underestimating SB value. We have Jose Reyes’ 78 SBs at a whopping 11.5 points – the most points awarded for any offensive category. Teammate David Wright’s 34 SBs earned him a respectable 4.8 points (equivalent to Holliday’s 36 HRs and Vlad’s 125 RBIs). This underestimation affects hitter values all the way down to about 10 SBs. Issue #3 plays a very minor role – greatest for 2B/SS as speed is most common in that category (Freddy Sanchez’s 0 SBs earned him a negative 1.19).
AVG – Issue #1 only affects the top 3 hitters as Magglio, Ichiro, and Matt Holliday’s averages warranted 6+ points in our ratings. Issue #2 plays a role for the rest of those with averages above .330. Issue #4 plays a role in overestimating the value of hitters lower than .330 but greater than BAO (e.g., Luis Gonzalez’s pedestrian .278 warrants 1.99 ESPN points where it should be worth zero). For low average hitters, Issue #3 plays a role in greatly overestimating their value as they should have negative value. Uggla’s aforementioned average of .245 gets .86 ESPN points compared to our -3.28 points.
Amazingly, though, the cumulative effect of these issues seems to have little bearing on the ranking of hitters. We agree with the top 10 OFs from ESPN Player Rater with slightly different ordering. The top 10 2B match down to the order. The differences play more of a role in total player rankings – below are some examples of players differently valued (Our Ranking, ESPN Ranking).
Eric Byrnes (25, 43) Jorge Posada (58, 92) Juan Pierre (78, 117) Derek Jeter (86, 106)
It’s worth noting that almost every hitter is higher valued in our rankings vs. ESPN because ESPN overvalues pitchers out of the top 20 and this pushes down all the hitters.
So while we find faults in ESPN’s methodology, we can’t fault using ESPN Player Rater to understand hitter position rankings. It works surprisingly well for hitters given its simplistic approach - it’s possible that its flaws are a bigger issue as you move down the player rankings. That said, we would caution against using the combined hitter and pitcher rankings given the flaws we’ve seen with their valuing and ranking of pitchers. OTHER FANTASY NEWS:
1. Alex Rodriguez .314/143/54/156/24 The only sign that he was human this year is when he was caught in a strip club. The effortlessness in which he plays the game makes it extremely effortful (I made up that word) to like him, but if you had him on your team you probably were able to show some enthusiasm. He will probably go down in the history as the only number one in his sport that no one really loves. People loved Jordan, Tiger Woods, Pele, etc. With Arod, I feel people don't show him the love that his skills definitely deserve. Perhaps it is his effortlessness or maybe the New York media. Oh, and the other thing surprising about Arod is his heritage. He's about as Latin as Taco Bell.
2. David Wright .325/113/30/107/34 These top two weren't that close to the rest of the field for 3rd base and this year 3rd base was a pretty loaded position. What I love is how the New York media terrorizes Arod, but can't find any fault with Wright. Sure, he's a great bats-smith, always hustles with his natural speed, power, next door neighbor good-looking... Darn, now I wanna marry him, too. Loved to see what Wright could do playing in Citizen's Bank. Actually, I don't because I hate Wright. Seems a bit too perfect. Like O.J. in the 70s.
3. Chipper Jones .337/108/29/102/5 And he missed some time. (Of course, he did. He always misses time.) I usually don't draft Chipper. Nothing personal, although Chipper does strike me as a racist. Usually I'm all for drafting people who are injury-prone because if you fill in for them properly you can actually do quite well. The thing with Chipper is he's not injury-prone as much as he is always playing hurt. He's the kind of player that sits for a day or two so you take him out then he plays. By the time you get him back in there, he's hurt again. And the cycle continues. This year, injuries or not, Chipper gave you more than value.
4. Miguel Cabrera .320/91/34/119/2 If you take Pujols, subtract sixteen years and add eighty pounds, you've got Cabrera. He could weigh three hundred and twenty pounds and still hit .320 and thirty homers and he might just weigh that by this time next year. The Latin Prince Fielder. At least with the extra poundage, it now makes sense why he has absolutely no speed.
5. Ryan Braun .324/91/34/97/15 To the alien that just landed from another planet, "He might be fifth but this is the absolute best player on this list because you got him for nothing." In one league where I picked him up off waivers as soon as he was called up, guess what? I won. In another league where I drafted him but dropped him when he didn't get the immediate call-up from the minors, I finished third. Had I not dropped him, I would have won. The owner that did pick him up ended up in fourth, they would've been in eighth. Know what I really like about him? He goes to the opposite field. Know what I don't like about him? He struggles a bit against righties. Um, this might be a problem.
6. Mike Lowell .324/79/21/120/3 Wow, Julio Lugo, Coco or Varitek couldn't drive in poor Mike Lowell more than 79 times? Here's another guy that was on a lot of winning teams. He went from an afterthought to .324 and 120 RBIs. He was slotted into more corner positions and got more hits against a wall than a twenty dollar whore. This was a career year at... Wait, how can he be 33 years old? He looks older than my father and he's supposedly younger than me. Can we just make it a law to add seven years to everyone's age that was born outside the U.S.? (Lowell is from Puerto Rico.) Like if you moved to another country you wouldn't go by whatever age you could pass for. BTW, I'm twenty-two in the Dominican Republic.
7. B.J. Upton .300/86/24/82/22 (See Top 10 2nd Basemen for why guys love them a B.J.)
8. Garrett Atkins .301/83/25/111/3 Okay, you could have done better with your fourth round selection than G.A. (apologies to the trademark Garrett Anderson has on those initials). But you didn't lose your league because of Atkins (apologies to the Atkins Diet people). Sure, he started slow. Yes, he could have topped thirty homers and hit for a slightly higher average. Okay, Garrett (apologies to Garrett Morris and Leif Garrett) didn't win you any leagues either. But the only thing you can get down on him for is coming in no higher than second in a Google search of any variation of his name. He will forever be known Garrett Atkins, anything shorter is someone else.
9. Adrian Beltre .276/87/26/99/14 In a mixed league, you didn't even draft him so "You're welcome." In an AL-only league, you didn't want to draft him and he was the fourth best AL 3rd baseman so "You're very welcome." With skills coming out of elementary school, so much should have come from Beltre yet he will be forgotten in less than seven years by everyone except possibly family members. Perhaps we should start a Remember Adrian Beltre? website now before he fades from memory. Someone registers www.rememberadrianbeltre.com and I'll be your first supporter. As long as I don't have to give my email address.
10. Aramis Ramirez .310/72/26/101/0 What's that funky smell? It's Aramis! Injuries weren't too kind to Aramis this year and who knows how long he might have been playing hurt, but he still got 500 at-bats. Geez, his stats remind me of the Kaiser Chief song, "Everything Is Average Nowadays." If Derrek Lee and him would have had their normally productive years, the Cubs would've ran away with the division.
Just out of the top ten, Chone Figgins (41 steals in part-time action!) could have helped, Ryan Zimmerman (really average in full-time action!) never took the next step so many predicted, Alex Gordon (struggled mightily for three months!) is not winning the ROY and his teammate, Mark Teahen (7 home runs!) sucked, but not as bad as Aubrey Huff. But, then again, no one is really ever as bad as Aubrey Huff. OTHER FANTASY NEWS:
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