Around the Majors

The handsomely knowing (or is it knowingly handsome?) Bob Taylor over at Fantasy Hurler put together a list of Beasts and Busts for 2008. Can’t say I agree with some of his choices, cause I actually agree with all of his choices. If he read my mind, I’d like to know what I ate for lunch yesterday, because I can’t remember for the life of me. Was it tuna? As stated in earlier posts on this site, Pujols is coming back, Alex Gordon is going to be special, Hanley might lay a turd the size of Lichtenstein, and Ryan Braun is so overhyped he might be coming around to underhyped now.

The Sox and Pinstripes blog, which manages to balance the Yanks and the Sox all under one blog, takes a look at the opening month of ’08 for the Sox. They open in Japan (I wonder if Dice K’s translator gets a paid vacation) against the A’s then take on contender after contender and the Rangers.

Finally, if you have some time to kill, the first look at the The House That Zimmerman Built (at least it’s not narrated by Don Sutton):

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Top Twenty Shortstops For 2008

Where to draft the top twenty catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen are all in the books, so now we move onto the shortstops. Top twenty shortstops isn’t as shallow as you might think. For an interesting article on why shortstops are almost as deep outfield, check this out. It’s a great read provided by Lou from Baseball Lab. Unfortunately, Lou is no longer with us. Not dead, just ain’t blogging anymore. His archives are there, and you should check them out some time. Also, our Player Rater for 2007 is here. Onto to the shortstops.

1. Jose Reyes – Check out our top ten overall for projections.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Check out our top ten overall for projections. Also, if you're so inclined, check out why you should NOT draft Hanley 1st overall.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Check out our top twenty overall for projections.

4. Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo’ll hit second in ’08, which means he scores at least a 110 times if he doesn’t try and carry any deer meat down any stairs. His OBP worries me, but his park excites me. His tendency to strikeout worries me, but the Poles are hard-workers. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10

5. Derek Jeter – Jeter proves my point that you can’t have an ugly mulatto child. Roseanne Barr and George Foster can give birth to a swimsuit model. Jeter always gets drafted higher than he should, probably because he’s notched Jessicas -- Alba, Biel and Rabbit. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15 and you're the envy of any girl that is in your league.

6. Miguel Tejada – His consecutive game streak that he fought so hard for makes me think he’s gonna want to shut up anybody who has linked him to steroids. I say he comes back like a potato sack of dragons. Then again, his age and no steroids may not cooperate with his intention. Projections:
90/25/100/.290/3

7. Carlos Guillen – He’ll be over at 1st this year, but as long as he has shortstop eligibility, you’re good to go. See what was said about him at top twenty 1st basemen. For those too lazy to look, I’m not a huge fan.

8. Rafael Furcal – ’07 was a bad year for Furcal, but his ankle injury in the beginning of the year seemed to be to blame. He was overrated last year, but will be underrated this year (then overrated next year, do you see how this goes?). You have my permission to draft him. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35

9. Michael Young – Young reminds me a lot of Carlos Guillen. You get a little bit of everything and nothing that wonderful. Young is a better bet to hit you .300; Guillen has an outside shot at 17/17 (I refuse to write 20/20 next to his name, when it's soooo not going to happen.) Projections: 95/12/95/.310/10

10. Jhonny Peralta – He looked a lot better in the first half last year, but he’s still only going to be 26 this year. He’s a definite buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3

11. Edgar Renteria – I likey Renteria. He’ll get you some decent numbers when he’s out there and then when he’s banged up, you fill in with a hot hitter off waivers. Unless you’re in an AL-Only league, then you can’t fill in as easily. Projections: 95/10/75/.295/15

12. Khalil Greene – Don’t think Khalil will ever hit above .275, so act accordingly. Projections: 85/27/100/.260

13. J.J. Hardy – I almost put J.J. above Guillen, but his OBP was a bit atrocious and his pre- and post- All-Star game splits were worse. He sees very few balls he doesn’t like and even fewer strikes. Projections: 85/20/80/.260

14. Ryan Theriot – Great strike-zone discipline and speed. He’s a great buy towards the end of drafts for some cheap speed. Forgo Juan Pierre-types and grab Theriot. Projections: 105/3/50/.290/45

15. Orlando Cabrera – He was not as good last year as you might think considering some experts draft lists. His stats were: 101/8/86/.301/20. Rex “The Hud” Hudler loved him, but he also loves Garrett Anderson. You don’t have to draft Cabrera just because everyone seems to be high on him. Projections: 100/9/65/.280/20

16. Julio Lugo – Here’s what I said at the top twenty 2nd basemen, “The steals were a bit of a surprise on Boston last year. Don’t think the average will be as bad as last year…” Projections: 80/7/65/.270/25

17. Stephen Drew – He’ll be better than he was last year soon, just not sure if you should count on it being in 2008. His OBP was a mess, but he’s only 25 this year. Projections: 65/20/75/.270/15

18. Yunel Escobar – I’m pretty high on Yunel. Well, as high as someone could be and still place him 18th overall at his position. His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that. Projections: 80/10/55/.285/15

19. Jason Bartlett– He’s a poor man’s Theriot. It just keeps getting better and better, huh? You’ll get cheap steals here, and maybe nothing else. Projections: 70/5/45/.270/25

20. Erick Aybar – A poor man’s Jason Bartlett. Projections: 65/2/35/.265/20

Just after the top twenty, obviously many, but I couldn’t fail to mention:

Brandon Wood – He will be a monster slugger one day soon, but his K/BB ratio is just plain ugly. Hopefully he becomes something other than a young Troy Glaus. Projections: sticks with the club out of spring training, then rides the bench on and off for three months totally screwing up his progress. Draft him in ’09.

Tomorrow, we move to the top twenty outfielders for 2008.

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Top Ten Overall for 2008

In 2007, Jake Peavy was the top overall player according to our player rater with Alex Rodriguez coming in a close second. Of course, pitching is less reliable, so looking ahead to your 2008 fantasy baseball draft, how should you draft? Here’s my top 10. Tomorrow, 11 thru 20.

1. Alex Rodriguez – Maybe you despise his natural ability, maybe the New York Media has convinced you he’s not as good as you think, but his worst season of the last five seasons was in 2006 when he gave you 113/35/121/.290/15. If he gives you those numbers again, he’s not causing you to lose your fantasy league. There’s safety in Arod, no matter what you feel about him personally. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305

2. Jose Reyes – He placed only twenty-three on our player rater last year, but finding 30 home runs later in the draft will be easier than finding 30 steals. With Reyes’s 70 steals, you won’t have to worry about steals later. Projections: 130/14/70/.295/70

3. Albert Pujols – His numbers last year were down, definitely. They were still 99/32/103/.327/2. His lineup doesn’t look any better going into 2008, but his lineup wasn’t very good in 2006 when he carried his team to the World Series. He’s a tremendous talent that is still only 28 (in Latin years that may be 35, but that’s a different discussion). Projections: 110/40/115/.330/2

4. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Remember what Helton used to do in his prime years? But Holliday won’t hit .340 again. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/7

5. David Wright – The Mets love to run and it doesn’t appear like Wright is slowing down just yet. 30 steals might be asking a lot, but there’s a good chance his power will continue to grow. Projection: 115/34/120/.310/20

6. Hanley Ramirez – He’s a talent, no doubt. But his offseason shoulder surgery is something to be aware of. He’s not higher on this list because of reasons stated here. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45

7. Jake Peavy – Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, the best pitcher currently in the game. If you have balls to take him first or second, I can’t argue with it. I’m ball-less. Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05

8. Miguel Cabrera – He’s a hitting savant and he’s on Trimspa. The change of leagues doesn’t worry me, as it will be negated by the more than legit lineup now surrounding him. Projections: 110/35/125/.315/4

9. Chase Utley – Weak position, monster lineup, great ability, fierce determination. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12

10. Prince Fielder – Case could be made for a lot of people in this slot. Johan Santana, Ryan Braun, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, Brandon Webb, but they’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the eleven to twenty rankings. Prince is young, is a safe pick to repeat last year’s monster season and has a huge backside upside. Projections: 115/50/125/.285

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

2008 Fantasy Draft Poll

Alex Rodriguez will probably go number one (why Hanley Ramirez should not go number one, click here) in most 2008 fantasy baseball drafts, but who will go #2? There’s lots of worthy candidates for you to choose from, so which one will it be?

A) Jose Reyes -- As long as Major League Baseball doesn’t start testing for Red Bull, you’re getting 70 steals and possibly 15 home runs.
B) Hanley Ramirez -- 50 steals and 25 home runs and hopefully the Marlins bat him 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
C) David Wright -- Easily 30/30 and he’s got a squeaky clean image like O.J. Simpson in the 70s.
D) Albert Pujols -- With a name like poo-holes, do you even have to ask?
E) As Sloth from The Goonies would say, “Baby Ruth?”

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Don’t Draft Hanley Ramirez #1

Our favorite ESPN columnist, Eric Karabell, crapped out a turd baby as he took a look at some fantasy baseball expert drafts for 2008 (year 5768 for all the Jews researching who to draft besides Shawn Green). His non-take on Hanley Ramirez is really what got my goat, and no one gets my goat, but me. Let’s look to see what Karabell had to say:

I know some people who rank Hanley No. 1, over A-Rod, and I don't call them crazy. Too many fantasy owners simply, and lazily, look at the 2007 stats and assume that's what they're getting. This isn't the case at all. You're getting 2008 stats, for better or worse.

Some analysts simply, and lazily, refuse to take a side for fear they’ll be wrong. Hanley is not going to do what he did last year.

A) He doesn’t take enough walks. Stats here, if you don’t believe me.

B) He swings wildly and injures himself. From September, 2007:

The Associated Press is reporting Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez fanned on a high fastball and winced in pain as he dropped the bat during his follow through during the Sept. 3 game against the Washington Nationals.

Later in that month:

The Palm Beach Post's Joe Capozzi reports Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez is considering having shoulder surgery in the offseason and won't play winter ball.

In October:

Juan C. Rodriguez, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder Wednesday, Oct. 3. Ramirez is not expected to be at full strength for the start of spring training.

C) The Marlins top paid player for 2008 is Jose Castillo. Hanley doesn’t even have Dontrelle to knock in anymore. Could Hanley try and do too much? He might.

Sure, Hanley is a bona fide talent. He can get you 20 homers and 40 steals, but he’s not as safe as Arod, Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley. Frankly, I might consider Peavy or Johan safer. You want safety with your first pick; Hanley is not it. He has too many question marks.
OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

Top 25 Players for 2008

This is from ESPN's top analyst (pointing out that he's their top analyst makes it sarcastic), Eric Karabell:

1. Alex Rodriguez: Even with some statistical regression, you can't go wrong.
2. Hanley Ramirez: Power and speed, and someday manning center field.
3. Jose Reyes: Nobody steals more bases, and he could reach 15 homers.
4. David Wright: No, he's not moving to second base. He'll still run.
5. Albert Pujols: And that was an off-year. He can put up A-Rod numbers.
6. Jimmy Rollins: Take the power down a notch, but still, fantastic.
7. Alfonso Soriano: Split the difference from '06 and '07.
8. Chase Utley: Now there are two top second basemen, but still.
9. Miguel Cabrera: And it's not like Florida's park has been good to him.
10. Matt Holliday: Can't go wrong as long as he calls Coors home.
11. Carl Crawford: Extremely talented, even if this is the best he can do.
12. Vladimir Guerrero: It wouldn't hurt to have lineup protection.
13. Johan Santana: Could make the case to put him in round one.
14. Ryan Howard: No reason why he can't get back to 50 home runs.
15. Jake Peavy: Imagine the Cy Young race if Johan goes to NL!
16. Grady Sizemore: I don't think he goes 30/30, but he could.
17. David Ortiz: With the knee fixed, the extra power resumes.
18. Ichiro Suzuki: A must-get if you plan on taking Adam Dunn later.
19. Prince Fielder: I still think Ryan Howard has more upside though.
20. Brandon Phillips: Time for everyone to believe this is legit.
21. Ryan Braun: With the steals, could make the case for round one.
22. Carlos Beltran: It's not like he's too old to steal some bases.
23. Mark Teixeira: Capable of hitting anywhere, and could hit 40.
24. Lance Berkman: Go middle infield first, and he's still around later.
25. Carlos Lee: I admit he's a steal this late. Look at his stats, and Vlad's.

1. First off, Arod number #1. How's that limb look, Karabull? Don't want to venture out on it, eh? I wonder who he went out on a limb with last year, Pujols? I say take Reyes. But that will have to wait for a future column.

2. Hanley Ramirez is a bold pick for number two. Completely asinine, but bold nevertheless. Has anyone seen Hanley swing? Anyone worried about his shoulder that he hurts once a month when he swings? Yeah, me too.

3. If I see Jose Reyes at number three, I would take him gleefully. If the top two guys in your league skip Jose, they're morons or they work for ESPN.

4. David Wright sucks donkey feces. Sure, he'll get you 25/25 but so will Rollins with much more speed upside. To paraphrase Ralph Kramden, "Karabull!!!"

5. Pujols has an off year (that wasn't that off). His first off year in the majors and he drops to five. I hope none of Karabull's kiddies comes home with a B-. Off to boarding school with Tristan Cockcrap's thumb suckers.

6. Jimmy Rollins makes sense at sixth. The next one will blow your mind.

7. Soriano?!?!? Dude, between you and me. Let someone else take Soriano then mock them for taking him.

8. Utley, I like. Numerous reasons. Biggest reason, the guy actually seems to want to play every single inning of every single game. My man's a future MVP.

9. Cabrera just ate your draft cheat sheet. Personally, I want about six players instead of Cabrera, but he is a pure hitter. Plain and simple. Also, he loves to hug Miguel Olivo. Might be the shared name thing, might be something else. Keep an eye on it.

10. Holliday is officially priced out of "I got a steal" territory, which is a shame. He took about three non-intentional walks this year. I'd be wary. Karabull obviously wasn't, "Can't go wrong as long as he calls Coors home." Expert analysis! (Exclamation point now indicates sarcasm.)

11. Crawford is now falling into the "I got a steal" territory. As for Karabull's comment, "Extremely talented, even if this is the best he can do." No, this isn't the best he can do. He was playing hurt, Karanumbskull.

12. Vlad just got back from his third tour of Nam, or at least his legs appear that way. Don't take him.

13. Johan beats Peavy? Nah, he really doesn't actually. To use Karabull expert anlysis, "Not as long as Peavy calls Petco home and he's facing the weakest hitting division sixty percent of the time."

14. Ryan Howard at 14? Yeah, I would take that, but he's not going to be here.

15. Peavy is fantasy's newest ace. Karabull will make note of that at the end of November in '08.

16. Grady Sizemore -- see Howard, Ryan.

17. Ortiz, I'm sure there will be a Son of Sam Horn (do they actually call themselves this with a straight face?) who might take Ortiz at 17, but at strictly utility I would not. Aside, I bet Miguel Cabrera and Big Papi could hug each other for hours.

18. Ichiro at 18? Last year, this same nitwit probably (I don't feel like looking it up) ranked Ichiro somewhere between 25 and 30. He's the same guy every year. Eventually, he will slow down and you don't want to be there when that happens. Pass.

19. Prince Fielder will be at number 9 next year, you do the math. BTW, is it me or is Karabull living in 2006 for some of these choices?

20. Phillips... Ugh, can't argue with this, but I don't want him. Doesn't feel as safe as his 20th placed ranking should. I'd let someone else deal with Phillips.

21. Ryan Braun is going to be good, but he doesn't hit righties as well as I'd like to take him here. The fact Karabull's comment is saying there's a case for round one makes me even more nervous.

22-24 Carlos Beltran, Tex and Berkman... Seriously, this guy is their top analyst.

25. I want Carlos Lee above all three of the aforementioned bozos. The horse is a natural slugger.

OTHER FANTASY NEWS:

How Do You Value Fantasy Baseball Hitters?

Part 3 of How Valid is the ESPN Player Rater?
By Senior Contributing Writer Rudy Gamble

In two previous articles (part 1 and part 2), we’ve laid out alternative views for judging the most valuable player in 2007 5x5 MLB fantasy baseball (we say Peavy) and for pitchers – using and abusing the ESPN Player Rater in the process.

In this article, we’re going to focus on valuing hitters. The questions we will tackle are:

1) What is the value of each hitting stat?
2) How does position depth/scarcity affect a player’s overall value?
3) How does our approach to hitter value compare against the ESPN Player Rater?

To download our player rankings for 2007, please click here. To view the ESPN Player Rater.

What is the value of each hitting stat?

Our approach towards valuing player stats is to look at two factors: 1) the difference between a player’s statistics and those provided by the best available option (BAO) on the free agent wire (which would take position depth/scarcity into account) and 2) the impact that stat difference might have on a league’s standings (ambivalent to position).

We’ll set position scarcity aside for a second to look at the composite stats for the BAO hitter in 2007: 67 Runs / 14 HR / 65 RBI / 6 SBs / .277. The closest player equivalent to these stats is Luis Gonzalez.

We used the final standings of our fantasy league to understand the impact of each statistic by looking at the standard deviations between teams’ totals. While it would be better if we had more league standings on which to base these standard deviations, we still feel this is superior to building ratios off team averages because it takes into account that some statistics have larger percentage gaps between teams vs. others. This is most evident when looking at HR vs. SB – while the average team in our league average 1.69 HRs to 1 SB and the BAO has a HR:SB ratio of 2.33:1, the observed impact on a team was actually 1:0.77 or that a HR has more value (not even counting the R/HR/RBI/AVG implications) to a team’s rank in the standings than an SB.

The ratio for these stats based on our analysis was: 3.3 Runs / 1 HR / 2.8 RBI / 1.3 SBs / .003 AVG. Points are credited based on these ratios (a point actually equals the above ratio * 4.6) after subtracting the BAO's stats.

Okay, let’s do two comparisons to show this works in action.

Eric Byrnes (103 / 21 / 83 / 50 / .286) vs. Miguel Cabrera ( 91 / 34 / 119 / 2 / .320)

This is an interesting one as it asks that inevitable question – how much are SBs really worth? Is it worth the addition 48 SBs to sacrifice those HRs, RBIs, and AVG that Miguel Cabrera provides? Let’s look at the points comparison of R/HR/RBI/AVG:

Runs: Byrnes 2.4 to 1.5
HRs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.55
RBIs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.43
AVG: Cabrera 3.48 to 1.01

(Note: While it might not look right that Cabrera’s 34 HRs could be worth 2.5x that of Eric Byrnes 21 HRs, remember that the BAO provides 14 HRs. So this is really a comparison of 20 HRs (34-14) vs. 7 HRs.)

Counting just these stats, Cabrera is about twice as valuable as Eric Byrnes (12.89 to 6.39).

But Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs is huge given the average team only had 162 SBs in our league. A total like this could let you dominate SBs or focus on non-speed guys when filling out other positions (say, taking Khalil Greene’s 27 HRs instead of J. Lugo’s 33 SBs).

Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs equates to 7.25 points in our scale while Cabrera’s 2 SBs equate to negative 0.45 points because it’s less than the BAO would’ve provided (which is 6). So factoring in SBs, Eric Byrnes is the more valuable fantasy hitter (13.6 to 12.4). But if your team was set for SBs, trading Eric Byrnes for Miguel Cabrera would be a no-brainer.

Placido Polanco (105 / 9 / 67 / 7 / .341) vs. Dan Uggla (113 / 31 / 88 / 2 / .245)

This comparison focuses on Polanco’s AVG contribution vs. Uggla’s power contribution.

Runs: Uggla 2.65 to 2.12
HRs: Uggla 4.0 to -0.78
RBIs: Uggla 1.94 to 0.30
SBs: Polanco -0.05 to -0.86

(Note: These comparisons do factor in position scarcity – hence, Uggla’s 2 SBs receive more negative credit that M. Cabrera’s above since the 2B BAO steals more than the average player.)

Counting these stats, Uggla is well ahead at 7.73 to 1.59 points, with the biggest driver being his 31 HRs which are worth 4.78 points more than Polanco’s 9 HRs.

But those HRs come at a price. Uggla’s .245 average is well below the BAO average of .277 (actually 2B’s have higher AVG than other positions so it’s even worse – examples of high batting average marginal 2Bs include Orlando Hudson’s .294, Luis Castillo’s .301, and Ronnie Belliard’s .290). Combining that bad average with his above average AB total (632), Uggla’s average would drop the average team’s AVG by .004 vs. the BAO 2B. This earns him a negative 3.28.

On the other hand, Polanco’s .341 in 587 ABs is worth a positive 4.77 points – more, in fact, than Uggla’s 31 HRs. He’s worth about an extra .004 on your team average meaning that swapping these two creates a .008 swing, a more dramatic swing than the 22 HR difference.

So while Placido Polanco is a negative on a team’s HR and SBs (and just about BAO level on RBIs), his high AVG catapults him into being a more valuable fantasy baseball contributor (6.4 to 4.4). If Uggla could just get to something like a .275 average or steal 20-30 SBs, his HR/RBIs could help catapult him up the 2B rankings (even with the anchor-like AVG, he ended up 7th most valuable 2B, well ahead of the .317 hitting ROY Dustin Pedroia).

How does position depth/scarcity affect a player’s overall value?

Position depth/scarcity plays a role from draft day through the end of the season.

During draft day, position depth/scarcity can increase/decrease a player’s value. A common practice is to ‘tier’ players at each position and try to group together similarly valued players. If there is only one player left in, say, the 2B tier and 5 similar valued players at SS, you may increase that 2B’s draft value because you can wait a round and likely get one of those shortstops.

After the draft, position depth/scarcity is used to compare the marginal benefit/loss of trading or adding/dropping one player over the next – e.g., I could trade Placido Polanco and replace him with little to no dropoff in any stat except AVG.

To factor this into our analysis, we extended our Best Available Option (BAO) concept to each position. We started with 10 rostered players for catchers and infield positions and 50 outfielders. We split the 1B/3B and 2B/SS positions equally and then divided up the utility position based on instinct and position depth (30% 1B, 2.5% 2B, 2.5% SS, 5% 3B, 0% C, 40% OF, 20% DH). We created composite stats for BAOs at each position – so for catcher, we took the 11th best AVG, 11th best HRs, etc. We then credited point totals based on the BAO at the position (“Position Points”) and averaged them with our average hitter BAO (“Player Points”). (Note: Since team rankings are position-agnostic – you don’t get more credit if it’s a middle infielder who hits a HR – there is a need to balance position depth/scarcity with overall stats. To keep it simple, we weighted it 50/50).

Below are the BAO stats per position (R / HR / RBI / SB / AVG) and some close statistical fits:

C – 47 / 13 / 57 / 2 / 0.273 (Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski)
1B – 63 / 18 / 68 / 1 / 0.279 (Matt Stairs, Conor Jackson, Aubrey Huff)
2B – 79 / 11 / 61 / 9 / 0.288 (Orlando Hudson, Brendan Harris, Mark DeRosa)
SS – 72 / 11/ 60 / 11 / 0.279 (Brendan Harris, Jack Wilson)
3B – 70 / 18 / 72 / 4 / 0.279 (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Aubrey Huff)
OF – 67 / 14 / 65 / 6 / 0.273 (Luis Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, JD Drew)

The most interesting about these BAO totals is how relatively close they are. The corner positions have a slight advantage in power and the middle infield spots have a slight advantage for runs, SBs and average. Catchers are weakest – particularly in Runs as catchers play less games and are disproportionately hitting 6th to 9th (less run opportunities).

Perhaps most surprisingly, the OF position looks no better than the middle infield positions. Wouldn’t you expect OF was a deeper position than middle infield? Isn’t BJ Upton more valuable as a 2B than an OF? Short answer: not really.

Here’s why: You’ve got roughly 15 2B, 15 SS, and somewhere between 52-57 outfielders on league rosters (OF are often used for UTIL positions). Looking at MLB rosters, you have roughly 30 starting 2B, 30 starting SS, and 90 starting OFs. FLB rosters, thus, are cutting deeper into the percentage of starting OFs vs. 2B/SS.

In addition, 2B/SS have added some pop over the years. 29 middle infielders hit at least 12 HRs. Granted, some had bad averages (Bill Hall, Juan Uribe, Stephen Drew), but the perception of those positions being power-challenged is outdated. (What IS true, though, is that it’s rare to find a middle infielder with 30+ HR power).

Outfielders, on the other hand, aren’t that deep. Only about 55 hit 15 or more home runs and that includes some players that might be at other positions (Berkman, Upton, Stairs) and the weakest ones look an awful lot like Luis Gonzalez and Austin Kearns (the BAO matches).

So while we did factor position depth/scarcity into our analysis, it really didn’t play a major role for hitters. The greatest impact was at catcher where the troika of great catchers in 2007 (Jorge Posada, V-Mart, Russell Martin) got about a 2 point boost because the Catcher position was the weakest in terms of BAO.

So Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins had extremely valuable fantasy years but the fact they played SS really didn’t add any significant value (maybe +2-3%).


How does our approach to hitter value compare against the ESPN Player Rater?

ESPN has a much simpler approach for estimating hitter value than the approach we have described above. It creates a cap at 5 points and a floor at 0 points. 5 points are awarded to the MLB leader in the stat and then each other player’s total is divided into the leader’s total and then multiplied by 5 to get their total – e.g., A-Rod led with 54 homers. David Wright had 30. He received 30/54 (.556) * 5 = 2.78 points in HR. Average is done in a slightly more complex way but the lowest possible total is zero (even if the player’s average has negative value).

From a macro-perspective, this simplistic approach works fine. The top hitters are going to appear near the top, the okay hitters in the middle, the bad hitters on the bottom. At a micro-perspective, we think ESPN’s simplistic approach has greater flaws vs. our approach. These flaws are less for hitters than pitchers, though, as the greater issues arise around ratio/average based stats and pitchers have two (ERA, WHIP) vs. one for hitters (AVG).

In a previous article, we identified four issues with ESPN Player Rater for valuing pitchers

1) Capping High Points at 5
2) Positive Ratio/Average Contributions Are Undercredited
3) Negative Contributions Aren’t Penalized
4) Overcrediting of Slightly Above Average Performance

These four issues all play a role for valuing hitters but #2 and #3 are not as major an issue because ERA/WHIP are more polarizing than AVG. For example, even low value hitters may hit .290 but only a great starting pitcher can manage an ERA near 3.00 ERA.

An additional issue we’ve found is:

5) The league leader used as the points base distorts the distribution of points – While the leader in Runs and RBIs is relatively close to the other leaders (no one had, say, 200 Runs or RBIs), A-Rod’s 54 HRs and Reye’s otherworldly 78 SBs set a very high bar for 5 points. This creates odd situations where Eric Byrnes 50 SBs (tied for 4th in majors) is worth less in ESPN Player Points than his 103 Runs (outside the top 20) and Jimmy Rollins’ 30 HRs (tied for 20th) are worth less than his 94 RBIs (tied for 42nd).

Here is the assessment on a stat by stat basis:

Runs – Overcredits for all players. For above average performance, Issue #4 plays a role (the Best Available Option’s 67 Runs warrants 2.3 points). For below average performance, Issue #3 starts taking effect (less than 67 runs should warrant negative points). An additional issue throughout is that runs are so plentiful across players that the value of a run is less than other stats (A-Rod’s 143 runs warrant 4.95 points in our estimation vs. 8.29 for his 54 HRs)

Home Runs – Undercredits great performance like A-Rod and Fielder (Issue #1). Issue #5 plays a role in underestimating the value of everyone at 25+ Homers. Players between about 15-24 HRs are slightly inflated based on Issue #4. Anyone below the BAO average of 14 are overestimated based on Issue #3.

RBIs – Undercredits the great performances like A-Rod and Matt Holliday (Issue #1). Overcredits above average performance (Issue #4). Undercredits below average performance (Issue #3). Issue #4 affects more hitters than Issue #3 (which is limited to speedsters and some 2B/SS – examples are Reyes’s 57 RBIs and Pierre’s 41RBIs)

SBs – This is the category where Issues #1 and #5 play a huge role in underestimating SB value. We have Jose Reyes’ 78 SBs at a whopping 11.5 points – the most points awarded for any offensive category. Teammate David Wright’s 34 SBs earned him a respectable 4.8 points (equivalent to Holliday’s 36 HRs and Vlad’s 125 RBIs). This underestimation affects hitter values all the way down to about 10 SBs. Issue #3 plays a very minor role – greatest for 2B/SS as speed is most common in that category (Freddy Sanchez’s 0 SBs earned him a negative 1.19).

AVG – Issue #1 only affects the top 3 hitters as Magglio, Ichiro, and Matt Holliday’s averages warranted 6+ points in our ratings. Issue #2 plays a role for the rest of those with averages above .330. Issue #4 plays a role in overestimating the value of hitters lower than .330 but greater than BAO (e.g., Luis Gonzalez’s pedestrian .278 warrants 1.99 ESPN points where it should be worth zero). For low average hitters, Issue #3 plays a role in greatly overestimating their value as they should have negative value. Uggla’s aforementioned average of .245 gets .86 ESPN points compared to our -3.28 points.

Amazingly, though, the cumulative effect of these issues seems to have little bearing on the ranking of hitters. We agree with the top 10 OFs from ESPN Player Rater with slightly different ordering. The top 10 2B match down to the order. The differences play more of a role in total player rankings – below are some examples of players differently valued (Our Ranking, ESPN Ranking).

Eric Byrnes (25, 43)
Jorge Posada (58, 92)
Juan Pierre (78, 117)
Derek Jeter (86, 106)

It’s worth noting that almost every hitter is higher valued in our rankings vs. ESPN because ESPN overvalues pitchers out of the top 20 and this pushes down all the hitters.

So while we find faults in ESPN’s methodology, we can’t fault using ESPN Player Rater to understand hitter position rankings. It works surprisingly well for hitters given its simplistic approach - it’s possible that its flaws are a bigger issue as you move down the player rankings. That said, we would caution against using the combined hitter and pitcher rankings given the flaws we’ve seen with their valuing and ranking of pitchers.
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Are Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Correctly Valued In Player Raters?

(Part 2 of How Valid Is the ESPN Player Rater?

by Senior Corresponding Writer Rudy Gamble


If you've ever seen the ESPN Player Rater (or, for that matter, other quantitative player rankings for fantasy baseball), you've likely asked yourself:

How could there be so many starting pitchers at the top? (13 in top 20, 19 in top 30) Is that valid or just faulty weighting?

This looks even more peculiar when reviewing qualitative rankings (i.e., someone subjectively lists players) or reviewing pre-draft rankings.

Before creating our own Player Rater, our assumption was that the preponderance of starters in the top ranks of ESPN’s Player Rater was due to faulty methodology versus the true value of starters vs. hitters.

So it came as a mild surprise to find that 12 of our top 20 were starters (and we also agreed with ESPN that JJ Putz deserved top 20 inclusion). We were somewhat relieved when there were only 2 starters in the 21-30 ranks so our 14 out of the top 30 was less than ESPN.

But those were gut reactions. Now that we’ve gone through the exercise, is their truth to ESPN’s (and our) pitcher-heavy top of the rankings? Are they eerily prescient or is this a broken clock scenario?

[It's important to differentiate this exercise - the proper valuing of player statistics - versus the projection of future statistics that are done by folks like Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler and are used for drafting purposes. Their analysis has shown that projecting hitter stats is more accurate than pitchers stats which makes hitters less risky for drafting. While it's extremely rare to see top 10 draft results with more than 2 pitchers, this does NOT mean pitchers are less valuable. That is based on a risk/value assessment - our analysis just focuses on the 'value' part of the equation.]

We’re going to look at this as two separate subquestions: 2A) Should there be a lot of starters in the final season top 20? & 2B) Is ESPN’s ranking of starting pitchers correct?

For question 2A, let’s first look at the players in our top 20 as well as that of ESPN. We shared 19 of the same 20 players, albeit in different order. Ours includes David Ortiz at #19 while they have Cole Hamels included at #20. (Still, agreeing so much with ESPN feels unclean.)

Our Ranking. Name - Pos (ESPN Ranking)

1. Jake Peavy - SP (2)

2. Alex Rodriguez - 3B (1)

3. C.C. Sabathia - SP (3)

4. Johan Santana - SP (4)

5. Matt Holliday - OF (8)

6. Hanley Ramirez - SS (7)

7. Brandon Webb - SP (6)

8. Josh Beckett - SP (5)

9. Magglio Ordonez - OF (11)

10. John Lackey - SP (9)

11. Jimmy Rollins - SS (14)

12. David Wright - 3B (15)

13. Erik Bedard - SP (13)

14. J.J. Putz - RP (10)

15. Aaron Harang - SP (12)

16. Dan Haren - SP (16)

17. Fausto Carmona - SP (19)

18. John Smoltz - SP (18)

19. David Ortiz - 1B (22)

20. Javier Vazquez - SP (17)

22. Cole Hamels - SP (20)


To understand the impact of each category on these players’ total points, we looked at the mean and median points per category for the 13 starters and 6 hitters (excluding Putz).


Category: Mean; Median

R: 4.4; 3.1

HR: 5.1; 3.1

RBI: 4.9; 2.0

SB: 3.5; 0.4

AVG: 5.3; 2.4

W: 4.4; 4.9

SV: -0.3; -0.3

ERA: 4.8; 5.4

WHIP: 4.4; 4.8

SO: 4.4; 4.8


While the means per category looks very consistent across the hitting vs. pitcher stats (aside from Saves), the medians per category are smaller for hitter stats. This is because even the greatest hitters are rarely great in any more than 2-3 categories. While the numbers may average out high, it’s because some players dominate the category (HR=ARod) and others are merely very good or good. A-Rod led the majors in R, HR and RBI but was outside the top 20 in Average and SB. Hanley Ramirez was top 10 in R, SB and AVG but outside the top 20 in HR and top 50 in RBI. David Wright’s isn’t in the top 10 for any category - his true value is being very good across the board. David Ortiz wouldn’t steal a base if you stuffed it with pork and deep-fried it.

Looking at the top 20 in batting average, only 5 of these players were in the top 20 for HRs (Holliday, Ortiz, Pujols, Wright, and M. Cabrera). (Note: Braun didn’t have enough ABs to qualify for average but was in top 20 for HRs)

The best pitchers, on the other hand, tend to be great or at least very good in all four categories. Looking at the top 20 in the MLB for Wins, Strikeouts, and ERA, there are 19 pitchers who are in at least two of the categories – 5 of those pitchers (Peavy, Webb, Lackey, Sabathia, and Beckett) are in the top 20 across all three.

This leads to a rather straightforward theory - starters are more likely to populate the top 20 in a player rater because the top pitchers tend to get high points in all the categories where hitters only have a couple categories where they are great.

We tested this larger theory of “pitching stats are more connected” by doing a correlation analysis on all the hitters and starters to see how closely the performance in one stat is correlated with another.

A perfect 100% would mean that the stats are absolutely correlated – say, purchases at a store and a store’s sales tax receipts (every $1 in purchases would be x% in taxes). A -100% would mean that the stats are completely inverse – say, the amount of total salary a baseball team can afford and their likelihood of picking up Jose Lima.

Below are the results of the correlation analysis.

Analysis:

90-100%

80-89% HR/RBI, ERA/WHIP

70-79%

60-69% R/RBI, W/K

50-59% R/HR, W/ERA, K/ERA, K/WHIP

40-49% R/SB, R/AVG, W/WHIP

30-39% RBI/AVG

20-29%

10-19% HR/AVG, SB/AVG

0-9%

Negative HR/SB, RBI/SB, all stats with saves for starters

Let’s start with the highest correlating stats for hitters and pitchers: HR/RBI and ERA/WHIP. The fact that these stats correlate highest should be rather self-evident.

Those that do well in HR and RBI correlate positively with Runs but poorly with SB and AVG. There is barely any correlation on HR/AVG and a mild one for RBI/AVG (which makes sense since it does require hits generally to drive in runs). SBs are negatively correlated to HR and RBI - not a surprise to anyone who has ever drafted Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik, or Willy Taveras.

Runs prove to be an interesting category as, besides HR/RBI, they also correlate well with SBs and AVG. This is likely due to high SB and AVG players being on base a lot, at the top of the lineup, and getting driven in by the HR/RBI guys.

So what we tend to have are two types of valuable hitters: Power/middle of the lineup guys who provide strong R/HR/RBI or Speed/top of the lineup guys who provide strong R/SB/AVG. Players like Magglio Ordonez hitting .360 while providing solid power numbers or Hanley Ramirez providing 29 home runs while providing great R/SB/AVG numbers are the EXCEPTIONS and not the rule.

With ERA/WHIP, these stats positively correlate at 40-60% with Wins and K’s. While there are those that do well in just one of these categories (say Wang in Wins or Kazmir in K’s, alliteration unintentional), a great starter doing well in most, if not all the categories, is more common than with hitters. Since there are more successful 3-4 category pitchers vs hitters (where you generally have to tradeoff strengths with weaknesses like Ichiro’s R/SB/AVG vs. HR/RBI), it makes sense that starters are disproportionately valuable.

The final point here – which was covered in the Peavy vs. A-Rod comparison - is the fact that starting pitchers have more influence over a team’s total stats than a hitter. This is particularly true in ERA and WHIP where a top starter may represent around 20% of your innings. Compare this to a hitter who is lucky to represent 8-9% of your ABs.

An illustrative comparison is looking at the stats of the 20th player in our rater – Javier Vazquez. His stat line of 15W/3.74/1.14/213K looks pretty good but what would the equivalent be in value for a hitter? If we link up Runs to Wins, HR to ERA, RBI to K’s, SBs to SV, and AVG to WHIP, our model would require a 120/21/137/0/.345 hitter. (fyi, if you want to see how SBs would play a role, switching the SB and AVG values would net .278 and 36 SBs)

So the answer to Question 2A is yes. We do feel that starters for any particular season should represent a majority of the top 20 value slots – unless, of course, a breed of power/speed guys start cropping up that rack up RBIs and don’t suck at AVG (see Mike Cameron, Chris B. Young).

On to Question #2B, is ESPN’s ranking of starting pitchers correct?

Let’s take a look at the pitchers just outside the top 20 in ESPN’s Player Rater and compare them to our totals.

ESPN Rank - Player Name – Our Rank

20 - C. Hamels - 22

21 - J. Verlander - 26

23 - K. Escobar - 36

24 - T. Lilly - 34

27 - J. Shields - 43

28 - T. Hudson - 42

29 - S. Kazmir – 55


Scott Kazmir’s stat line of 13W/3.48/1.38/239Ks netted him 3.25/3.58/2.55/4.98 in ESPN Player Rater points for a total of 14.36. Turning that into percentages, we’re looking at 22% for Wins, 25% for ERA, 18% for WHIP, and 35% for K’s.

In our rater, Scott Kazmir had 10.5 points that netted him 2.2/3.2/-1.4/6.8 or 21% for Wins, 31% for ERA, -14% for WHIP, and 64.5% for K’s.

Why the negative in WHIP? Because the Best Available Option (BAO) pitcher had a WHIP of 1.32 which bests Kazmir’s 1.38. His WHIP hurts your team, but you’ll take it because he does well in the other stats – especially K’s where he’s truly excellent.

The Kazmir comparison highlights several flaws in ESPN’s ranking of pitchers:

1) Capping High Points at 5 – Kazmir’s contribution in strikeouts has a greater impact on a team than, say, A-Rod’s run total. Treating them both at around 5 distorts Kazmir’s one special thing. It’s as if he’s Dirk Diggler and his “one special thing” has been shortened a couple of inches. (We’ll explore this concept further in another post – the capping, not fictional schlongs.)

2) Positive ERA/WHIP Contributions Are Undercredited – Kazmir’s 206.2 IP at a 3.48 ERA warrants slightly more credit than ESPN doles out since it is well below the BAO ERA of 3.96. If you estimate Kazmir represents between 1/6 and 1/7 of a team’s innings (figure 4 more starters = 800 IP, 4 relievers = 300 IP, total of 1300 IP which is about 1/6.5 of Kazmir’s total), that 0.48 difference in ERA nets out to about a 0.07-0.08 drop in team ERA. This is equivalent to the impact of a player hitting about .337 or driving in 116 RBIs. (This concept is also covered in the A-Rod vs. Peavy post.)

3) Negative Contributions Aren’t Penalized – Kazmir’s WHIP of 1.38 is below the 1.32 WHIP of the Best Available Option pitcher (the top FA starter if the best 50 starters and 40 relievers were taken). How could this net positive points? He’s hurting your team. The WHIP is a tradeoff for his other stats. It’s like going out with a girl because she’s hot AND crazy instead of because she’s hot and IN SPITE of the fact she’s crazy. This ‘tradeoff’ cost is also present in counting stats for second-tier pitchers like C. Wang (gets less than average strikeouts) or Chris "Tall San Diego Pitcher" Young (his 9 wins are less than average).

A 4th issue related to #3 – the overcrediting of slightly above average performance - is more apparent with Ted Lilly’s ERA (3.83 vs BAO 3.96) and WHIP (1.14 vs. BAO 1.32). While Lilly’s ERA should get some positive credit, it is not worth nearly as much as his WHIP. ESPN’s system doesn’t value the two that differently - Lilly with 3.12 points in ERA and 4.30 in WHIP. On the other hand, we credit Lilly with 1.3 ERA points and 4.8 WHIP points.

The summary of all these ESPN Player Rater flaws is the following:

Wins – Slightly undercredits great performance (issue #1), Doesn’t penalize below average performance (issue #3)

ERA – Undercredits great ERAs, overcredits slightly above average to bad ERAs

WHIP - Undercredits great WHIPs, overcredits slightly above average to bad WHIPs

Strikeouts – Similar to Wins but more pronounced.

For the pitchers in the top 20, these effects are minor – Harang and Vazquez are slightly inflated given their so-so ERAs, Carmona is deflated given his great ERA (3.06), Beckett and Webb switch places because Webb’s ERA superiority trumps Beckett’s 2 extra wins. Outside the top 20, the results become more pronounced since issues #3 and #4 play a greater role in the distorted value.

Thus the verdict for Question #2B - is ESPN’s ranking of starting pitchers correct? The answer is no. Their rater does a fair job at the top, but it gets continually distorted as you move outside the top 20 players because it doesn’t properly penalize mediocre to below average performance.

(Note: Unfortunately, the ESPN Player Rater's improper penalizing of below average performance has a lot in common with the internal review of Baseball Tonight anchors - please tell me John Kruk, Orestes Destrade and Eric Young aren’t coming back...)

Come March, when you’re preparing for your draft and trying to decide between pitchers, you can avoid the above mistakes by just comparing the two pitchers’ projected stats and credit a point for each of the following increments: 1.5 Wins = 0.19 ERA = 0.04 WHIP = 18 Ks. Might take a little more calculating but it could be the difference between taking Jeremy Bonderman over John Lackey (that decision still haunts me from last year...)

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Top 10 Shortstops 2007

1. Hanley Ramirez
.332/125/29/81/51
If it wasn't for Arod's insane year, everyone would be talking about the year Hanley Ramirez had. Oh, and you didn't have to draft him in the 1st round. Look at those numbers again. One homer off a 30/50 season? That's insane. Experts have been calling for a 30/50 season from Carl Crawford for the last two years. And he's an outfielder! A 29/50 season from a shortstop? I have a friend who drafted Michael Young right before Hanley went off the board. His emails went something like this, "Michael Young is on pace for a 5/5 season and it's f**cking July?! Why didn't I draft Hanley?" Not to mention, Hanley may be Latin but he doesn't look eight years older than he's listed at. I'm looking at you Pujols, David Ortiz and Kim Kardashian. C'mon, she's 27? She looks like she's in her thirties. Though she's one of those that will look exactly the same age for fifteen years then, suddenly, she'll look her age and it will be very disconcerting. Think Suzanne Somers.

2. Jimmy Rollins
.296/139/30/94/41
Let's look at what he has going for him -- speed and enough power for Citizen's Bank, batting in front of Utes and Howard, an ego the size of a Cheesecake Factory entree, wanting to prove that the media is wrong by turning the best SS award automatically over to Reyes, no longer sporting braids and he gets about 1,000 at-bats a year. What's not to like? This might be his peak and everyone calls him J-Rol. Can we call a moratorium on shortening names like this? It feels so forced and arbitrary. Man-Ram was cute, I wish sportscasters would shorten Felix Hernandez to F-Her, Arod is fitting, but when is enough enough? Cole Hamels to C-Ham? Justin Morneau to Just-Morn? Carlos Marmol to Car-Ma? Actually, I like Car-Ma and I predict at some point soon Car-Ma will catch up to Ryan Dempster.

3. Jose Reyes
.280/119/12/57/78
Disclaimer: I don't like the Mets, but I love to watch Reyes play. Makes things difficult when you're hoping for him to score yet you don't want anyone on the team to get an RBI. "C'mon, double play from Wright!"

4. Troy Tulowitzki
.291/104/24/99/7
(I had to look up how to spell his last name, but didn't need to look up Kardashian. Hmm...) Let's not forget, he started awful. Dreadful. People were talking about bringing back "Deer Meat" Barmes. Yet, he still finished with great numbers. You probably drafted him so low(itzki) that rather than worry about the slow(itzki) start, you dropped him. Hopefully to pick him up again. Assuming you didn't pay too(lowitzki) much for him, you got value. This might be the last year that you'll be able to get him so low(itzki). (Sorry if that last paragraph was as confusing to read as it was to write. Sometimes things don't work, but you get so caught up in them you continue to force a round peg into a square hole.)

5. Carlos Guillen
.296/86/21/102/13
(See Top Ten 1st Basemen) Maybe C-Guile? "C-Guile is sneaky fast!"

6. Derek Jeter
.322/102/12/73/15
If only you had drafted him in the third round of your Fantasy Shortstops Who Date Hot Girls League. Sorry no Jessica Alba category in most leagues, though his conquests must play some sort of role in where he is drafted every year. Cause the numbers are, well, okay. Eighth round okay. Enough has been written about Jeter, moving on...

7. Orlando Cabrera
.301/101/8/86/20
Honestly, I didn't realize his numbers were so mediocre. See, I live in So-Cal and to watch a City of Anaheim 'Burb of Los Angeles Angels game, you would think Cabrera had an MVP season. Rex Hudler loves him some Cabrera. Here's hoping Hud was in your league and took him before you. Nah, that's just backlash. He had a decent season for an MI spot.

8. Michael Young
.315/80/9/94/13
Michael "I should've taken Hanley!" Young had a typical year for Julio Lugo. Not sure how you bat second or third on the Rangers and only score 80 runs. Offensive ballpark and he had over 200 hits. How do you do that? Oh, that's right Sammy Sosa, Brad Wilkerson, Jason Botts, Marlon Byrd were batting behind him. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Texas Rangers!

9. Edgar Renteria
.332/87/12/57/11
Okay, the RBIs were low, but you didn't have to pay much to get these numbers. Not to mention, he was injured for about two months so if you slotted in someone else while he was DL-ed, you padded the above stats. But praising Renteria is like praising Vanilla Ice Cream. You know what you're getting.

10. J.J. Hardy
.277/89/26/80/2
Personally, I like his numbers better than Michael "I should've taken Hanley!" Young. His .277 wasn't crippling, his 26 homers were excellent for SS and his RBIs and runs weren't bad at all. Not to mention, you had to draft Michael "I should've taken Hanley!" Young about twenty rounds earlier. I wouldn't go as far to say J.J. was dy-no-mite, but you could've done worse. Speaking of which...

Tejada had his consecutive game streak broken and you wasted a really high pick and Furcal absolutely killed teams this year. Furcal actually had a bad year for Julio Lugo.
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