Previously, we went through the top ten overall fantasy baseball draft list for 2008 and the top twenty first basemen. Well, an interesting thing happened on the way to spring training. Last Friday, while Pujols was bitching about how his accomplishments aren't tainted, he also reported something else that was going on last year. The papers reported this:
Pujols said he decided against offseason surgery on his right elbow, a trouble spot for several years, because he would have had to miss a significant portion if not all the 2008 season. Pujols still is unable to straighten his arm, but team doctors concluded that because he plays first base, an operation can be postponed. He said his elbow bothered him the second half of last season, and said if that happens again he wouldn't try to soldier through it.
If we can be armchair psychologists real fast, Pujols was upset that no one was giving him credit for his stellar seasons and whispering that steroids were involved. So to silence the critics, he said he’s not only been fantastic, but he’s been playing with a non-functioning arm. Then Pujols threatens to no longer play with a crooked elbow and will hang up his spikes, if he doesn’t get the proper love from said jackass critics.
Either way, Pujols’s elbow was hurting him and this isn’t good for Pujols’s owners. The elbow might be the reason for the down year in 2007. If the same pain continues in the 2008, Pujols might fight through it or he might elect for surgery. These draft lists are in no way set in stone, and Pujols draft spot needs to be corrected. Does this drop Pujols out of the top twenty overall? Are you better off drafting Lyle Overbay? No and don’t be stupid. I would move Pujols to late in the first round, right after Miguel Cabrera, or number eight on the top ten 2008 draft list.
The Sox and Pinstripes blog, which manages to balance the Yanks and the Sox all under one blog, takes a look at the opening month of ’08 for the Sox. They open in Japan (I wonder if Dice K’s translator gets a paid vacation) against the A’s then take on contender after contender and the Rangers.
Finally, if you have some time to kill, the first look at the The House That Zimmerman Built (at least it’s not narrated by Don Sutton):
Yesterday, we went over the top twenty catchers for ‘08 to draft here to add to our top ten overall and our 11 thru 20 draft list. Thankfully, we’re moving onto a meatier position as we go around the horn to our 1st basemen draft list for 2008. Also, if you want to check out our 2007 Player Rater, it’s here. Yeah, screw you ESPN and your ESPN Player Rater. Or look at that one here. We forgive you.
4. Travis Hafner – Pronk listed here might get me the most grief, but last year was not the norm with only 24 homers and a .266 average. I see a major bounce back. Besides having the best nickname currently in baseball, he can mash in the middle of great lineup, he knows how to take a walk and he has an indeterminate race. If Hafner doesn’t have 1st base eligibility in your league, I’d move him below the next three. Projections: 100/40/110/.300 5. Mark Teixeira – With a last name that hard to spell, he better be good. So, it’s I before X, except after… Whatever. His 1st halfs have not been what they should for two years now. Starting to look like a trend, but he still has good pop in his bat, just don’t expect 43 homers again. BTW, I need to add an FYI here. FYI, Tex, Derrek and Berkman are very close in value. They ended up in this order because Tex is the youngest and has the most upside, Derrek has a better lineup than Berkman, and Berkman’s at #7 because he seems racist to me. (I wonder what Berkman would think of Hafner?) But I digress. Tex’s Projections: 110/35/120/.305
6. Derrek Lee – In the 2nd half last year, he finally regained his power that was so badly missing after his wrist injury. Post-All-Star break in ’07, he hit 16 of his 22 homers. Watch this trend continue into ‘08. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
7. Lance Berkman – The addition of Tejada can’t hurt. Maybe he can introduce Lance to the clear or the cream or whatever it is they’re flagellating on themselves nowadays. I don’t think we’re ever gonna see ’06 type numbers from him again, so act accordingly. Projections: 100/30/115/.310/5
8. Justin Morneau – He doesn’t take enough walks to grab those MVP numbers ever again, but he is young and has enough natural ability to put up nice numbers. Beware of his average, he won’t hit .300 without a whole lot of luck. Projections: 90/35/110/.275
9. Adrian Gonzalez – On one hand, he plays at Petco. On the other hand, he’ll be only 26 in ’08. And on your final hand, assuming you have three hands, I can’t imagine anyone hitting 40 homers at Petco, so we’re looking at a ceiling of 35 homers. Not awful, but he did strikeout a lot from June on last year. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
10. Paul Konerko – The White Sox flat out stunk last year. Nothing went right. Konerko’s season was no different. He’ll only be 32 in ’08. Look for a bounce back, but keep expectations in line. He’s not going to hit 40-plus and .300-plus. Projections: 90/35/110/.275
11. Carlos Pena – I wanted to rank him higher, but my better senses wouldn’t let me. He needs to do what he did last year again before he moves up the rankings, but he might come as a steal in some drafts. Then again, he might be one of the bigger busts of ‘08. No risk, no reward, but remember he was allergic to walks before last year. I don’t trust him and won’t have him on any of my teams. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
12. Todd Helton – He has no upside, but, fortunately, I don’t see much downside either. He’s about as unexciting as a 1st basemen can be while still offering something of value. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
13. Carlos Guillen – The people over at Faketeams.com have Guillen way higher than this at number three overall for 1B. They run a good site, but on this point, I think they missed the mark. Their thesis statement is Guillen will give you a little bit of everything. That’s true. It fails to realize there’s much more reliance on power at 1st base. As you can see from our article, How Do You Value Fantasy Hitters?, the Best Available Option at 1B beats Guillen’s 162 game average in homers and nearly equals in RBIs. Not to mention, Guillen isn’t young and he is often injured. Now if you’re using Guillen at SS or MI, then that’s a different story. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
14. Kevin Youkilis – Is it me or does he look like he should be hitting 35 homers every year? Well, he won’t. He needs to hit twenty first. Projections (assuming he’s at the top of the lineup instead of the six hole):115/21/90/.290/3
15. Nick Swisher – We finally got some great upside here as Swisher takes his carefree attitude over to the White Sox and gets to hit in a much better lineup. He needs to stabilize his average, which is odd for a man with a good eye, but there’s major sleeper potential here. I’m high on Swisher this year and these numbers are low-balling him. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
16. Mike Jacobs – Here’s some more upside for you. The Marlins will be dreadful, but Jacobs could be a bright spot. Jacobs maintained a 2:1 BB:K last year as he struggled with a thumb injury. This year could be the year the power comes-a-callin’. I think it is. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
17. Carlos Delgado – The best has left the building. As someone who watched more Mets games last year than I care to admit, Delgado flounders against lefties to the point where I think a platoon might work. And, if the Mets don’t do a platoon, you should seriously consider sitting him against lefties if you draft him. Projections: 70/28/95/.260
18. Adam LaRoche – In December of ’07, he had his 2nd MRI on his knee and decided to rest rather than surgery. This is not a good thing. Avoid him and go for one of the next three if you find yourself scrambling for a 1st basemen in the later rounds. Projections: 70/27/100/.265
19. James Loney – He’ll be 24 in ’08 and he has the natural skills to take him to the top ten of 1st basemen for ’09. Major sleeper potential. Hopefully, Torre plays him like he should. Every day. Projections: 95/22/85/.315
20. Casey Kotchman – Well, it only took him a year and a half to recover from mono (Magic beat AIDS in less time). This is the year Kotchman lives up to the potential. Projections: 80/22/80/.300
21. Ryan Garko – Meat, I couldn’t not tell you to get on the Garko wagon. He may not break camp as the starter, but keep a close eye on him. Projections (if he starts by May): 65/27/80/.280
After the 21, lots of people obviously, but avoid:
Richie Sexson – Last year was an aberration. He won’t be that bad again in ’08. You still don’t want to draft him. He’s a batting average drain when he’s playing well. Find thirty homers elsewhere. You’re welcome.
Alex Rodriguez will probably go number one (why Hanley Ramirez should not go number one, click here) in most 2008 fantasy baseball drafts, but who will go #2? There’s lots of worthy candidates for you to choose from, so which one will it be?
A) Jose Reyes -- As long as Major League Baseball doesn’t start testing for Red Bull, you’re getting 70 steals and possibly 15 home runs. B) Hanley Ramirez -- 50 steals and 25 home runs and hopefully the Marlins bat him 1st, 2nd and 3rd. C) David Wright -- Easily 30/30 and he’s got a squeaky clean image like O.J. Simpson in the 70s. D) Albert Pujols -- With a name like poo-holes, do you even have to ask? E) As Sloth from The Goonies would say, “Baby Ruth?”
Our favorite ESPN columnist, Eric Karabell, crapped out a turd baby as he took a look at some fantasy baseball expert drafts for 2008 (year 5768 for all the Jews researching who to draft besides Shawn Green). His non-take on Hanley Ramirez is really what got my goat, and no one gets my goat, but me. Let’s look to see what Karabell had to say:
I know some people who rank Hanley No. 1, over A-Rod, and I don't call them crazy. Too many fantasy owners simply, and lazily, look at the 2007 stats and assume that's what they're getting. This isn't the case at all. You're getting 2008 stats, for better or worse.
Some analysts simply, and lazily, refuse to take a side for fear they’ll be wrong. Hanley is not going to do what he did last year.
A) He doesn’t take enough walks. Stats here, if you don’t believe me.
B) He swings wildly and injures himself. From September, 2007:
The Associated Press is reporting Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez fanned on a high fastball and winced in pain as he dropped the bat during his follow through during the Sept. 3 game against the Washington Nationals.
Later in that month:
The Palm Beach Post's Joe Capozzi reports Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez is considering having shoulder surgery in the offseason and won't play winter ball.
In October:
Juan C. Rodriguez, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder Wednesday, Oct. 3. Ramirez is not expected to be at full strength for the start of spring training.
C) The Marlins top paid player for 2008 is Jose Castillo. Hanley doesn’t even have Dontrelle to knock in anymore. Could Hanley try and do too much? He might.
Sure, Hanley is a bona fide talent. He can get you 20 homers and 40 steals, but he’s not as safe as Arod, Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley. Frankly, I might consider Peavy or Johan safer. You want safety with your first pick; Hanley is not it. He has too many question marks. OTHER FANTASY NEWS:
The blog is about fantasy baseball, but it’s sometimes hard to ignore what goes on in the real baseball world. Frankly, if we weren’t baseball fans first, we wouldn’t give a rat’s ass about fantasy baseball. So, with a heavy heart I write, yesterday was a tough day to be a fan. Taint on lots of big names, past and present -- Bonds, Clemens, Pettitte, McGwire, Bagwell, Gagne, Sosa, Justice, Tejada and, um, F.P. Santangelo. The list goes on for pages. If you want to read The Mitchell Report in its entirety, you can here. It’s lengthy and pretty depressing, kinda like if Ken Burns did a seven-part documentary on Tonya from The Real World. But today is a new day, and I’m going to try and put a positive spin on things. Here is a list of some players NOT in The Mitchell Report. If you will, a tribute.
Greg Maddux – 347 wins going into 2008. In 1998, while McGwire racked up 70 homers, Maddux went 18-9 with a 2.22 ERA and 208 strikeouts. Good to hear the Padres are bringing him back for another year. Maybe he’ll pass Clemens on the all-time wins list.
Tom Glavine – 303 wins, 2570 career Ks, and a lifetime 3.51 ERA. In 1998, Sosa hit 66 homers, but went 0 for 4 against Glavine with three strikeouts. In the Cubs second game against Glavine in 1998, Sosa sat out to give Matt Mieske some at-bats.
Randy Johnson – 4616 career strikeouts. Hopefully, he can make it back for his 300th win. It would be nice to see. In 2001, while Bonds hit 73 homers, Randy struck out 372 batters, which is eleventh most for a season and the most since Nolan Ryan in 1973.
Pedro Martinez – From 1997 to 2003, the heart of the having-a-trainer-inject-my-ass-with-something era, Pedro had ERAs of 1.90, 2.89, 2.07, 1.74, 2.39, 2.226 and 2.22 respectively.
Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera – Combined they have over 900 saves and zero mentions in The Mitchell Report. What’s that? Gagne had trouble bouncing back day after day? Trevor smiles at Mariano then, “Try it for twelve years.”
Cy Young Winners from 1996 ‘til present – Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, John Smoltz, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay and Barry Zito.
Alex Rodriguez – Canseco claims Arod should be in the Mitchell Report, but he’s not. I say we give him the benefit of the doubt. BTW, he’s arguably the best hitter in the game. When you’re in that argument, you’re pretty good.
Albert Pujols – See that premature balding is hereditary! BTW, second best hitter in the game.
Todd Helton – In 2001, he batted 132/49/146/.336. Too bad it was overshadowed.
Vladimir Guerrero – Some players medicate when they’re hobbled by injuries, some hobble. Here’s one for the hobblers.
Ichiro Suzuki – For not being in The Mitchell Report -- arrigato.
Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder – If they test positive, it’s because their steak was injected on the way to the slaughterhouse.
Frank Thomas – Okay, so he’s the Henry Hill of all of this, but it’s still a shame his 500 home runs came at a time when that was a ticket for Copperstown consideration and not a ticket to Copperstown.
Manny Ramirez – The thought of Manny trying to inject himself with something is ludicrous. Actually, the thought of Manny thinking is pretty ludicrous, but Manny get a hug from Big Papi for not being in The Report.
David Ortiz – While we’re here, someone Big Papi wasn’t hugging was McNamee. Ken Griffey Jr. – Maybe if Griffey took the shortcut many of colleagues did to help recuperate from injury, he would be approaching 800 home runs. Maybe his self-respect meant too much.
I wish these players above had received more recognition then and now. There’s lots of names I’m failing to mention. Please feel free to comment below some names that weren’t on The Mitchell Report.
This is from ESPN's top analyst (pointing out that he's their top analyst makes it sarcastic), Eric Karabell:
1. Alex Rodriguez: Even with some statistical regression, you can't go wrong. 2. Hanley Ramirez: Power and speed, and someday manning center field. 3. Jose Reyes: Nobody steals more bases, and he could reach 15 homers. 4. David Wright: No, he's not moving to second base. He'll still run. 5. Albert Pujols: And that was an off-year. He can put up A-Rod numbers. 6. Jimmy Rollins: Take the power down a notch, but still, fantastic. 7. Alfonso Soriano: Split the difference from '06 and '07. 8. Chase Utley: Now there are two top second basemen, but still. 9. Miguel Cabrera: And it's not like Florida's park has been good to him. 10. Matt Holliday: Can't go wrong as long as he calls Coors home. 11. Carl Crawford: Extremely talented, even if this is the best he can do. 12. Vladimir Guerrero: It wouldn't hurt to have lineup protection. 13. Johan Santana: Could make the case to put him in round one. 14. Ryan Howard: No reason why he can't get back to 50 home runs. 15. Jake Peavy: Imagine the Cy Young race if Johan goes to NL! 16. Grady Sizemore: I don't think he goes 30/30, but he could. 17. David Ortiz: With the knee fixed, the extra power resumes. 18. Ichiro Suzuki: A must-get if you plan on taking Adam Dunn later. 19. Prince Fielder: I still think Ryan Howard has more upside though. 20. Brandon Phillips: Time for everyone to believe this is legit. 21. Ryan Braun: With the steals, could make the case for round one. 22. Carlos Beltran: It's not like he's too old to steal some bases. 23. Mark Teixeira: Capable of hitting anywhere, and could hit 40. 24. Lance Berkman: Go middle infield first, and he's still around later. 25. Carlos Lee: I admit he's a steal this late. Look at his stats, and Vlad's.
1. First off, Arod number #1. How's that limb look, Karabull? Don't want to venture out on it, eh? I wonder who he went out on a limb with last year, Pujols? I say take Reyes. But that will have to wait for a future column.
2. Hanley Ramirez is a bold pick for number two. Completely asinine, but bold nevertheless. Has anyone seen Hanley swing? Anyone worried about his shoulder that he hurts once a month when he swings? Yeah, me too.
3. If I see Jose Reyes at number three, I would take him gleefully. If the top two guys in your league skip Jose, they're morons or they work for ESPN.
4. David Wright sucks donkey feces. Sure, he'll get you 25/25 but so will Rollins with much more speed upside. To paraphrase Ralph Kramden, "Karabull!!!"
5. Pujols has an off year (that wasn't that off). His first off year in the majors and he drops to five. I hope none of Karabull's kiddies comes home with a B-. Off to boarding school with Tristan Cockcrap's thumb suckers.
6. Jimmy Rollins makes sense at sixth. The next one will blow your mind.
7. Soriano?!?!? Dude, between you and me. Let someone else take Soriano then mock them for taking him.
8. Utley, I like. Numerous reasons. Biggest reason, the guy actually seems to want to play every single inning of every single game. My man's a future MVP.
9. Cabrera just ate your draft cheat sheet. Personally, I want about six players instead of Cabrera, but he is a pure hitter. Plain and simple. Also, he loves to hug Miguel Olivo. Might be the shared name thing, might be something else. Keep an eye on it.
10. Holliday is officially priced out of "I got a steal" territory, which is a shame. He took about three non-intentional walks this year. I'd be wary. Karabull obviously wasn't, "Can't go wrong as long as he calls Coors home." Expert analysis! (Exclamation point now indicates sarcasm.)
11. Crawford is now falling into the "I got a steal" territory. As for Karabull's comment, "Extremely talented, even if this is the best he can do." No, this isn't the best he can do. He was playing hurt, Karanumbskull.
12. Vlad just got back from his third tour of Nam, or at least his legs appear that way. Don't take him.
13. Johan beats Peavy? Nah, he really doesn't actually. To use Karabull expert anlysis, "Not as long as Peavy calls Petco home and he's facing the weakest hitting division sixty percent of the time."
14. Ryan Howard at 14? Yeah, I would take that, but he's not going to be here.
15. Peavy is fantasy's newest ace. Karabull will make note of that at the end of November in '08.
16. Grady Sizemore -- see Howard, Ryan.
17. Ortiz, I'm sure there will be a Son of Sam Horn (do they actually call themselves this with a straight face?) who might take Ortiz at 17, but at strictly utility I would not. Aside, I bet Miguel Cabrera and Big Papi could hug each other for hours.
18. Ichiro at 18? Last year, this same nitwit probably (I don't feel like looking it up) ranked Ichiro somewhere between 25 and 30. He's the same guy every year. Eventually, he will slow down and you don't want to be there when that happens. Pass.
19. Prince Fielder will be at number 9 next year, you do the math. BTW, is it me or is Karabull living in 2006 for some of these choices?
20. Phillips... Ugh, can't argue with this, but I don't want him. Doesn't feel as safe as his 20th placed ranking should. I'd let someone else deal with Phillips.
21. Ryan Braun is going to be good, but he doesn't hit righties as well as I'd like to take him here. The fact Karabull's comment is saying there's a case for round one makes me even more nervous.
22-24 Carlos Beltran, Tex and Berkman... Seriously, this guy is their top analyst.
25. I want Carlos Lee above all three of the aforementioned bozos. The horse is a natural slugger.
1. Prince Fielder For lack of a better word, his season was: FAT. .288/109/50/119/2 The most surprising number there is the 2 steals. Was fielder's indifference not scored properly? Love to hear from readers if they witnessed either of Prince's steals. Anywho, the ladies love the long ball, so, by contractual obligation, they love Prince.
2. .282/99/46/121/1 You wanted this to be Ryan Howard, you were assuming it would be at the very least Pujols. But surprise, surprise, it's Carlos Pena. .282/99/46/121/1 were numbers you would had been very pleased with at the beginning of the season from your first round Pujols or Howard selection. From a guy you picked off of waivers? Depending on when you swiped him, you probably finished no worse than third in your league. This is the kind of player that wins leagues. You waste no draft choice and (Frank Voila!) you have 46 homers and 121 RBIs. Nice.
3. Ryan Howard .268/94/47/136/1 Eh, you got what you paid for. That is, if you had patience during his DL stint. Where you probably had to take him (1st round), he didn't win or lose leagues. Sure, it would've been nice to get an extra ten home runs. Okay, .268 was a bit low, but you had to expect that with the way he strikes out and his lucky BABIP in '06.
4. Albert Pujols .327/99/32/103/2 Isn't he good for 130 runs? Wait, wasn't this the year he was going to hit 50 homers? Barely cracking 100 RBIs? Pretty disappointing year from what was arguably the consensus 1st pick of every draft. Maybe he was trying to do too much and will be better next year? Maybe LaRussa will bat him eighth next year and the pitcher third? Maybe next year he'll admit to really being 38 years old and this year will all make sense?
5. Lance Berkman .278/95/34/102/7 He came on strong towards the tail end of the season, but, wow, he was bad most of the year. Like Britney at the VMAs bad? No, like Britney as a mother bad.
6. Mark Teixeira .306/86/30/105/0 At some point you have to think his '05 year might be his peak. The trade to the Braves didn't seem to adversely effect (BTW, is it effect or affect here? Someone let me know, thanks.) his numbers, but this is the second year in a row that his entire first half of the year DID adversely a(e)ffect his numbers. These numbers are great from someone taken in the twelfth round. He went on average in the 3rd. And his last name is impossible to spell. Why is there an i before the x? Moving on...
7. Adrian Gonzalez .282/101/30/100/0 Here most people got value. Sure, he barely got over .280 thanks in part to a great start and great finish. And, you're right, 100/30/100 seemed to be his floor not ceiling. But at least you got those numbers and he shouldn't have came at a huge price. You didn't take him in the fourth round, didja? You did? Well, shame on you.
8. Carlos Guillen .296/86/21/102/13 With 8 games played at 1st in '06, you probably didn't draft him to be your first baseman. Frankly, you might have only drafted him as your middle with his injury history. But with power numbers down across the board, Guillen could have been moved to 1st in the middle of the year and you wouldn't have lost much.
9. Derrek Lee .317/91/22/82/6 What a bust. He helped for part of the year with his inflated average, but that came down to earth in the 2nd half of the year and you were left with Lyle Overbay numbers. If you passed picking up Pena because you had this guy manning 1st, you probably lost your league. How does a guy batting third for a division winning team finish with 82 RBIs? Oh, that's right, Soriano's OBP.
10. Victor Martinez .301/78/25/114/0 You drafted him as your catcher, so I gotta say this was a tremendous year. Everything you could've wanted. Frankly, his numbers look better than Derrek Lee. (The 6 steals are what barely puts Lee above.)
And, by the way, there were first basemen that were worse. Busts: Morneau, Delgado, Konerko, Hafner (depending on your eligibility requirements). Overall, a down year from 1st. A usually dependable position that solidifies the offense and bulks the power numbers saw a league-wide power shortage that really hurt 1st. OTHER FANTASY NEWS:
Fantasy Baseball is a blog dedicated to rotisserie chicken. Wait, that's wrong. This is for rotisserie baseball. We're aiming to provide usable tips and commentary for winning your fantasy baseball league. We're here because Blogspot deserves its very own fantasy baseball geek spot.
Grey Albright and his staff will also be fielding questions for your fantasy squad and maybe even posting some.
