Thing to Watch In Spring Training, Part Deux

Friends are going to spring training in Arizona this year and I was invited. Intrasquad games and closers coming in for the third inning? I took a pass. The only thing exciting about spring training is its conclusion. Nevertheless, there are some things to keep an eye out for while continuing to catch every episode of the RR/RW Challenge: The Gauntlet. (BTW, The show is an hour now, but I almost wish it were only a half hour so there would be twice as many episodes. Talk about bittersweet. Loved how Danny was happy his wife, Melinda, got a concussion so she wouldn’t be vulnerable for elimination. That's love!)

Felipe Lopez – It’s official; Felipe Lopez slept with Manny Acta’s wife. Last year, he refused to play small ball and it cost Felipe Lopez (as Gollum would say) precious steals. This year, Acta announced Ronnie Belliard would be the 2nd baseman and Cristian Guzman would be the shortstop, leaving Lopez on the bench. I don’t think highly of Felipe Lopez, but saying Cristian Guzman is a poor man’s Felipe Lopez is an insult to poor men everywhere. Watch to see if Felipe can get off the bench and in the lineup somewhere because he could be a bargain if he’s taken in the final rounds. Cristian Guzman’s going to suck and stink, but he won’t stick.

Cubs Closer – Marmol, Howry or Wood? Wood, Marmol or Howry? Hell if I know. My guess is Howry because Piniella’s got a thing for the proven and Howry’s the closest thing to proven. If you had ESPN Deportes, you saw Marmol be lights out in the Caribbean Series for his DR team. Wood can be lights out. Whichever way this goes, you need to know.

Dave Roberts – You’re rooting for him to perform badly in spring training so Fred Lewis (potential steals) or Nate Schierholtz (potential power) get a chance. If it makes you feel any better rooting for the end to Roberts, keep telling yourself he had a nice career. (Sure, it would be a lie, but whatever. If you can’t lie to yourself, who can you lie to?)

Colby Rasmus – In his Double A debut, .275/.381/.551 with 29 home runs, 37 doubles and 18 stolen bases. Could he unseat Ryan Ludwick in rightfield? I think sooner rather than later, but it may not be as early as this spring training. He will probably take over sometime this year though, so keeper owners need to have Rasmus on the brain at draft time.

The entire Oakland A’s lineup – You need to see who is batting and where, especially in AL-only leagues. If Cust is cleanup and Chavez is batting third, then they need to be drafted in mixed leagues. Barton batting second? Might not be bad to take a flier. Chris Denorfia is going to be entering that magical 27 year-old year. (And, yes, that is the only time magical and Chris Denorfia will ever be in the same sentence.) He’s considered to be the frontrunner for centerfield and could potentially give you 10/20 numbers with a .280 in a full season of at-bats. “Could” is the key word.

Tomorrow I’ll look at some more spring training battles, until then…

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2008 Sleepers

Last year, you didn’t win your fantasy baseball league because you drafted Alex Rodriguez first. You won your league because someone you pegged as a sleeper in a later round paid off. You were looking at Brandon Phillips and saw the speed/power combo that could make him valuable. You took one look at Kevin Gregg and thought he could get some saves and use some contacts. Or you saw Josh Hamilton and thought, “I like to have at least one drug addict on my team to honor the '86 Mets.” This is not the final sleeper list for 2008, but will continue to be updated.

Michael Bourn – If Juan Pierre confuses you as much as for his Spanish first name, French surname and African-American ancestry as for his draft position, you're not alone. Bourn’s going to get you Juan Pierre numbers ten rounds after Pierre. My Bourn adoration was already cited here.

Alex Gordon – In his first major league season, he hit 2 home runs and had 8 steals. Not Alex Gordon, George Brett. Gordon’s a 20/20 hitter waiting to happen. His projections for 2008 can be found here.

Casey Kotchman – So what if Kotchman had mono longer than Magic Johnson had AIDS. He’s going to be twenty-five this year and he’s ready to break out. 2008 projections can be found here.

Carlos Marmol – 96 Ks in 69.1 innings. Do I have to say more? Piniella will probably start Howry at closer in April. Be patient. Remember Gregg didn’t start as the Marlins closer last year. Also, if Marmol can’t get the closer job, he will be worthwhile to own as a middle reliever, but I do see him leading the Cubs in saves by season end. Projections for 2008 here.

Adam Wainwright – He was a mess in the first half of ’07, but in the second half, he cut his runs allowed in the by almost half, his home runs allowed by more than half and he showed stamina. With a year of starting at the major league level under his belt, he’s due for a step in the right direction. Projections: 15-9/160/3.30/1.25 and he’s considered the ace of the staff.

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Top Twenty Closers For 2008

We’ve covered the top twenty draft lists for catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, shortstops, 3rd basemen, outfielders and starting pitchers for ’08. Finally, the top twenty closers 2008. I can’t stress this enough, don’t take any closer before the 7th round. Saves are a category, so you should draft at least three closers, but they don’t pitch enough innings to make a solid dent in your pitching ratios. The good ones give a nice push to the stats outside of saves. Like J.J. Putz, for instance. But he was drafted in the 7th round last year according to the ESPN average, so you see they’re unpredictable, as well. Don’t go drafting him in the fourth round this year. It ain’t worth it. For some prospective, take a look at our ’07 player rater.

1. Jonathan Papelbon – He’s unhittable and on a 95 win team. That, my friends, is a recipe for a stud closer. Odd, since his dancing is very unstudlike. If he saved 55 games with 100 Ks and a .90 ERA in 60 innings, it wouldn’t surprise me. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves

2. Joe Nathan – Phenomenal peripheral stats, year in and year out. He can fluctuate from 35 saves to 50 saves in any given year, depending on chances. He’s starting to get up there in age (33), but he doesn’t seem to be slowing just yet. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves

3. J.J. Putz – He can strikeout any hitter at any given time, which makes things easier for a closer. (I’m talking to you, Todd Jones.) He’s not prone to injury and his team will probably be in a lot of close games. Very solid number #1 closer for any fantasy team. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves

4. Francisco Rodriguez – K-Rod’s pitching motion scares the bejeezus out of me, but he still puts up sick stats every year. Sick meaning well, not sick meaning sick. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves

5. Mariano Rivera – Until he can’t close, he’s going to be on the list. Look at Hoffman, he’s still doing it. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves

6. Francisco Cordero – To be honest, I don’t trust him. His time closing for the Brew Crew was solid, but I can’t help shaking that year in Texas when he lost the job. Although, that was a hitter’s park. Wait, so is Cincinnati. Projections: 2-5/65/3.50/1.20/35 saves and the Reds fans call for Bill Bray to take over by June.

7. Trevor Hoffman – His entrance music “Hells Bells” was released two years before Adrian Gonzalez was born. Hoff’s old. No doubt, but as long as he keeps doing the same thing every year, kind of hard to find fault. Projections: 3-2/40/3.50/1.15/40 saves

8. Takashi Saito – He’s 38 years old for the ’08 season, but his ‘07 season was proof American hitters still haven’t figured him out. I’m pretty confident Torre will stay with the elder, but for fear of Broxton, I won’t be drafting Saito. Then again, I’ve also feared Shields for the last three years and not drafted K-Rod. I'm an idiot. Projections: 4-1/75/1.75/.90/40 saves

9. Bobby Jenks – Raise your hand if you saw his last season coming. Okay, now lower your hand if you’re lying. Okay, now lower your hand, if you’re still lying. Projections: 5-2/65/3.00/1.00/40 saves

10. Brad Lidge – The park could send Lidge into fits if he gives up too many long balls, but, I have to say, his stock is so low, I’m buying. He strikes out hitters by the boatloads and he’s another year removed from the Poo-holes ass-reaming. Projections: 3-3/90/3.25/1.20/40 saves

11. Billy Wagner – Ok, I know what you’re thinking and it’s true. His collapse towards the end of last year has me very nervous. I’m going to pass on Wagner this year, but he could be better than fine. You’ve been warned. Projections: 2-3/70/3.75/1.35/25 saves and Heilman takes over in August and gets 15 saves.

12. Joe Borowski – He’s on a great team for saves and…. Um…. I can’t think of anything else positive. Here’s hoping Betancourt hurts himself playing Guitar Hero. Projections: 2-5/50/4.25/1.35/35 saves

13. Todd Jones – He had more saves than strikeouts last year. Seriously. Yet, I’ll still probably draft him. You want saves and he looks like the man for a team that could win 90 games. Though watch Rodney in the rearview. Projections: 4-4/30/4.50/1.30/35 saves

14. Jose Valverde – Last year, after he started off good, I anticipated a collapse and traded him away. He got better. So, what now? I still don’t trust him. I might draft him, but I doubt I keep him the whole year. He loses his shit and, before you know it, he’s given up five runs in a third of an inning. Projections: 2-6/65/4.00/1.25/30 saves and loses the closing job three times in ’08.

15. Chad Cordero – Is it me or does he simultaneously look like he’s twelve years old and a child molester? Might be the low-hat-wearing-brim-thing. Anyway, the team sucks, so saves may not be plentiful and talk of a trade will invariably happen in July, but he’s solid for what he is. Projections: 2-3/60/3.50/1.35/30 saves

16. Jason Isringhausen – IS-ring-how-zin instills no confidence in me, but he’ll probably end up on a few of my teams because he doesn’t instill confidence in anyone, except his manager. In other words, he’ll be cheap at drafts and get the saves. Projections: 2-4/50/3.75/1.15/30 saves

17. Matt Capps – Got the kind of stuff that could propel him into the top ten closers for ’09. He’s not going to get many opportunities, but hopefully with Tracy out he’ll get the ball and hold onto it. Projections: 2-5/75/2.25/1.00/25 saves

18. Manny Corpas – Not thrilled about the fact that Fuentes is still there. I feel like the slightest hiccup and Corpas will be looking over his shoulder. Projections: 3-3/70/2.50/1.15/25 saves and Fuentes picks up 15 saves.

19. Brian Wilson – The genius behind Pet Sounds! Oh, no, wait a minute. Bochy has stated that Wilson will be the Giants closer, which means he’ll have nothing to close, because they’ll suck this year. When he pitches, he can be lights out. Hopefully, he doesn’t come into too many games to ‘just get work.’ Projections: 2-6/65/2.50/1.05/20 saves

20. Carlos Marmol – Or I could have just said, whoever the hell is closing for the Cubs in 2008. Kerry Wood, Howry, Marmol… They have to decide on someone (at least I hope they do) and whoever gets the ball in the ninth will get lots of opportunities. This is something that needs to be watched in spring training. 2008 Cubs Closer Projections: Nice stats/boatload of saves

After the top twenty there are lots of options, obviously, but one that really stands out:

Rafael Soriano – His stuff is overpowering. Absolutely filthy and he’s got the Braves job all to himself this year. He’ll probably be in the top ten next year when the rankings come out. Projections: 3-4/85/1.25/1.00/35 saves

One name I don’t want any part of:

Huston Street – Injuries and lack of offense for the A’s have me pretty down on Street. If he gets traded to the Braves, I’ll be disappointed to say the least. Maybe Rafael Soriano slept with Bobby Cox’s wife.

Once Spring Training gets underway, we’ll break down what every team is going to do for a closer.

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Closer for the Cubs?

The Chicago Cubs closer, Ryan Dempster, announced today he no longer wants any part of the ninth inning unless, of course, he's throwing a complete game (insert laugh track). The Dumpster was once a mediocre starter and I see no reason why he can't return to his humble beginnings. The big story really is:

WHO IS GOING TO TAKE OVER CLOSER FOR THE CUBS?

The Upstart:
Carlos Marmol
5-1/96/1.43/1.10 in 69.1 innings
His numbers were phenomenal. It's not easy to strike out 96 batters in less than 70 innings. His stuff is obviously closer-like. He had one save so Lou Piniella didn't fully trust him. Why not? Cause Lou doesn't play the young guys in crucial spots. Look at the tight leash Murton and Pie have had so far. Marmol will be out there in the seventh and/or the eighth, not the ninth. At least not this season.

The Reclamation
Kerry Wood
His numbers don't matter. You know he's good, but can he stay healthy. This would be a feel-good story the size of Rick Ankiel pre-HGH. Can it happen? Not very likely. Sure, he'll be given the ball in close games, and may even close a few, but he's too wild for the closer role. And, more than likely, he'll get injured again. So we'll probably see lots of hype about how great Kerry Wood would (stutterer!) be as closer, but it's not going to happen.

The New Closer
Bob Howry
6-7/72/3.32/1.17 in 81.1 innings
He's been dependable for two years, he has the stuff to strikeout anyone at any given moment and he's the safest option. It's not as exciting as Marmol or as feel-goody as Wood, but teams play it safe and Piniella in particular is a conservative manager. I'm sure the entire season the Chicago press and the baseball world will be waiting for Howry to lose the job and he will from time to time, but at the end of the season, Howry will have the most saves on the Cubs and Marmol will have the best numbers.
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