Mark Prior, Rebound or Reject

In 2003, Bush stood in front of a banner declaring, “Mission Accomplished,” giving a speech announcing the end of major combat in Iraq. Also, in 2003, Mark Prior delivered a Cy Young-worthy season. From that point forward, Iraq and Prior’s casualty list rivals Nordberg from The Naked Gun movies. Now, in 2008, Mark Prior gets a fresh start for the Padres and there’s a presidential election. Reversal of fortunes, perhaps.

In 2003, Mark Prior, 22, won 18 games, had a 2.43 ERA and 245 strikeouts and started 30 games. Call up the Hall of Fame, we got ourselves a first-balloter! Since, he’s started a total of 57 games. But 2008 is a new year (literally, Happy New Year!), and Prior can get himself back to respectability. Respectability does not equal fantasy-worthy. He just had surgery in 2007 on his rotator cuff and repair was done to labral and capsular injuries. Arm injuries really aren’t good for pitchers. Prior has expressed he wants to be ready for Opening Day in 2008. Yeah, and I want play touch football over at the Kardashian’s house. Things don’t always work out. Then throw in the fact speculation is rampant that Prior should have been mentioned in the Mitchell Report, which makes conjecture say this:

Conjecture, “Prior was good in 2003 with steroids. Don’t draft him until he proves he can be good without steroids.”

That’s harsh, conjecture.

Conjecture, “But true.”

No, it’s conjecture. Dur.

Listen, I’d like to see Prior get back to what he once was, but I’m not drafting him praying he does. Let someone else take the gamble and REJECT.

Maybe draft him for your Razzball league. But then again, he probably won’t give you enough innings there, either.


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Manny Ramirez, Rebound or Reject

I love Manny. I’m a lifelong Yankees fan and I love Manny. He’s totally gootarded (goofy and retarded). I can’t wait for Manny’s Hall of Fame speech, “Manny is very happy to have plaque, but my dentist is not.” Only Rickey Henderson’s Hall of Fame speech has a chance to equal it on the unintentional comedy scale. Today, however, we’re concerned with what Manny Ramirez will do in 2008, not 2015 when undoubtedly there will be flying cars.

In the last two years, Manny has missed 61 games, maybe twenty of them were from Manny being hurt rather than Manny being Manny. Last year his numbers were actually bad for where you had to draft him: 84/20/88/.296. Carlos Pena did this by June. Manny hits in a tremendous lineup and he has amazing strike-zone discipline. He should be able to post similar numbers to 2007 with his eyes closed. Unfortunately, Manny seems like he decided to get some shut-eye about two years ago. He’s the kid working the summer job at Friendly’s over Labor Day weekend. Tuesday’s back to school, and the kid just doesn’t care if you said Jimmies on the Happy Ending Sundae, you're not getting Jimmies. Well, Manny just doesn’t care anymore. The sundae will still be good, but you’re not getting the Jimmies. For where you have to draft Manny, I say reject.

BTW, this picture reminded me of Manny being Manny:

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Jason Bay, Rebound or Reject?

Many of you would have preferred to have the “taco burns” than to have owned Jason Bay last year. He flailed at every inside pitch he was thrown, desperately trying to get something going. He managed to make people envious of Xavier Nady’s numbers.

People have long predicted Bay was nothing but a skinnier Bobby Higginson. If you look at Higginson’s career stats, he was also very useful early in his career. Now Higginson’s age 29 season is particularly interesting (the same one Bay will be entering), Higgy just came off an egregious season (just like Bay did) and he bounced back for a very productive season. So the same might be expected of Bay. But this is misinterpreting the facts. The facts:

His lineup is not getting better in 2008. In this off-season, a physician did not tend to the knee that hindered his running in 2007. Bay, instead, opted to let time heal all wounds. This does not bode well for a return to 10 or 15 steals. His BABIP for 2004, 2005 and 2006 were .352, .355 and .338 respectively. When he stopped getting so lucky in 2007, his average plummeted to .247. In 2007, Bay couldn’t catch up to any inside pitches as you can see from this graphic:


This is usually a sign that a player’s bat is slowing.

A slowing bat at 28, a horrible lineup around him and a player that had some good fortune with BABIP in the past does not equal a candidate for a rebound. So I might have suggested you draft Higginson in 2000, but I can’t do the same for Bay in 2008. Stamped: Rejected.

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Jeff Francoeur in 2008

In two full seasons, Jeff Francoeur has averaged nearly 500 outs per season. 507 outs in 2006, which put him in the top 100 of all-time, then 477 outs in 2007. Coupled with his lack of walks, Francoeur rarely sees a pitch he doesn’t like. Though he did see a few more pitches in 2007 then he did in 2006, nearly doubling his walk total. Still his 2007 walk total of 43 isn’t a number to be proud of. Delving deeper into Francoeur’s numbers you find more of the same -- a free-swinging hacker.

Checking out his baseball-reference page, you find one bright side in all of this. At his age, he compares to Harold Baines. Okay, he’s not being compared to Willie Mays, but Baines had an extremely productive career and took very few walks along the way. Another bright side, he’s only going to be 24 in 2008 and he’s played every Braves game of the last two years. He’s durable and he has some time to hone his strike-zone discipline.

The biggest red flag for me is 19 homers in 2007 after hitting 29 in 2006. It seems his attempt at plate discipline is coming at a price. Granted, his doubles shot up to 40 in 2007, but he does have good speed so these could have been well-placed gapers.

Another concern, he’s a sexy name to breakout. Maybe it’s his boyish good looks, but for some reason his average draft place and his output don’t correspond. Some players annually draft higher than they should (Hey, Jeter!) and Francoeur seems to fall into this category. A dangerous category for someone with his downside. (Jeter, fortunately, doesn’t offer the same downside.)

In 2008, maybe Francoeur will double his walks again…

Maybe his doubles will turn back into homers…

Maybe his BABIP will stay above his average…

Better yet, maybe you should just draft someone that’s a bit more dependable and let someone else worry about these headaches.

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