Potential Closers For 2008

We’ve gone over a few lists of sleepers here and here. Gave you some draft lists here. Even chucked a player rater your way. This here? This is a sleeper closer list. You won’t find Mariano Rivera on this list, cause he’s not a potential closer. He is a closer. Nathan? Nope. George Sherrill? Yeah, he’ll be here. Got it? Okay, let’s look at a few teams and some potential closers for 2008.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Troy Percival

Al Reyes – Why did they trade for Percival? A guy who was retired this time last year compared to a guy who was their closer last year. It’s really surprising the Devil Rays are perennial losers; they make such astute baseball moves.

Kansas City Royals – Joakim Soria

Yasuhiko Yabuta – His numbers in Japan were good for Japan, but not great (2.73/1.18). Soria struggled at times to understand that strikeouts are good and walks not good. Tomko has been rumored to be in line if Soria fails, but I didn’t put his name down because Tomko will never be a successful closer and he shouldn’t be drafted in any leagues including 16-team AL-only leagues.

Baltimore Orioles – An in-house mess

Chad Bradford – The Orioles are going into Spring Training with a closer buffet of crap, unless they trade for someone. Bradford is the best arm but all signs seem to want to keep him in the seventh or eighth. There’s a chance the next guy might be their savior (get it?).

George Sherrill – The trade of Bedard to send Adam Jones and Sherrill seems just about complete with Bedard going for a physical as I type this. So Sherrill gets traded and take over immediately as the Orioles closer. Last year his ERA/WHIP was 2.36/.99. He carries a great strand rate, as well. By draft time, he may not even be much of a sleeper anymore. Shoot, by next week.

Florida Marlins – Kevin Gregg

Taylor Tankersley – Do you think Kevin Gregg has another good season in him? The Tank hasn’t shown the promise yet in the majors and he’s a lefty. Maybe he never becomes the closer of the future for the Marlins, then again he’s only 24.

Texas Rangers – C.J. Wilson

Eddie Guardado – The Rangers gave Wilson the role last year and then took it from him as he succeeded. This proves one thing; they don’t like him in the role. By June of ‘08, Everyday Eddie could be simultaneously the worst closer in the majors and have a secure job. I’d run from this, but if you need saves you gotta do it. New math, Guardado + Arlington = Mylanta

New York Mets – Billy Wagner

Aaron Heilman – Wagner made a total meltdown (along with the team) last September. It probably was nothing, but he complained of back pain and he’s going to be 36 this year. I will be drafting Heilman on at least one team this year because the Mets will have late inning comebacks wins this year. Saves for Heilman? Possibly.

There will be more potential closers to come, until then…

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How Valid is the ESPN Player Rater?

by Senior Contributing Writer Rudy Gamble

Anyone who played ESPN 2007 Fantasy Baseball last year probably had two lingering questions throughout the season:

1) Did the ESPN employees responsible for the database crash that screwed up the first two weeks’ worth of 2007 stats befall a fate worse than Harold “Harass is one word?” Reynolds (rarely insightful on Baseball Tonight but he’s like Peter F*in’ Gammons compared to replacement ex-2B Eric Young)?

2) Is the ESPN Player Rater completely incorrect or just mostly incorrect?

While we wait to see if Outside the Lines' Bob Ley or the ESPN Ombudslady answer our repeated requests for answers on question #1, we took on the challenge of question #2.

Now you may ask, “Is this a valuable exercise beyond the joy in potentially proving ESPN wrong?” Fair question. The answer is a resounding yes. One of the greatest challenges with Fantasy Baseball is determining how to compare the value of players and their statistical contributions – any idiot could tell you that A-Rod and Peavy were the best hitter and pitcher respectively but was Matt Holliday more valuable than Jimmy Rollins? Understanding the value of each of the statistics – ESPECIALLY in non-counting stats like batting average, ERA, and WHIP – helps from the draft throughout the season as rosters are juggled, free agent options are considered, and trade offers are mulled. (That being said, proving ESPN wrong was a motivating factor.)

In no particular order, here are some of the questions we have on the 2007 season that we don’t believe ESPN Player Rater correctly answers (based on 5x5 MLB Universe):

1) Who is more valuable: A-Rod (best hitter) vs. Peavy (best player)?

2) How could there be so many starting pitchers at the top? (13 in top 20, 19 in top 30) Is that valid or just faulty weighting?

3) ESPN creates a floor and ceiling of 0 (floor) and 5 (ceiling) for points per category. Does this misrepresent the contribution (or lack thereof) of players and what is the impact on player rankings? For example, how is Jose Reyes’ amazin’ 78 SBs worth the same amount of points as Josh Beckett’s merely impressive 20 wins? How is Richie Sexson’s horrific .205 batting average worth the same amount as Todd Helton’s sloth-like 0 SBs?

4) How is it possible that relievers J.J. Putz and Rafael Betancourt are worth more for ERA and WHIP than top starters like C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Brandon Webb when these relievers pitch about 1/3 of the innings as the starters?

5) Shouldn’t players at shallower positions receive bonus points – e.g, are Hanley Ramirez’s stats at SS more valuable than A-Rod’s stats for 3B?

To tackle these questions, we created our own Player Rater. See attached for the rankings and notes on the methodology we used. The methodology is nerdy and quasi-scientific - with heavy conceptual influence from Baseball Prospectus, Bill James, and other leaders in the field – but you could skip all the mathy stuff and just look at the rankings if you like.

We will answer these questions – and potentially others - over several posts. Let’s start off with the first one…

1) Who is more valuable: A-Rod (best hitter) vs. Peavy (best pitcher)?

ESPN has A-Rod #1 and Jake Peavy #2 by the slimmest of margins – 19.8 to 19.75. This order is in line with popular opinion. I’m sure if you were to do a ‘hindsight draft’ - whereby you draft based on 2007 stats – that Scott Boras’s wet dream would be picked #1 almost every time. There’s a much greater chance Peavy would go #3 or later than #1.

But is this some type of hitter/East Coast bias vs. pitcher/West Coast bias? Well, let’s look at how ESPN calculated the point totals:

A-Rod: Runs = 5, HR = 5, RBI = 5, SB=1.54, AVG=3.26
Peavy: K = 5, W = 4.75, SV = 0, ERA = 5, WHIP = 5

A-Rod led the majors in R/HR/RBI to earn the three category max of 15 points. His above average 24 SBs and .314 AVG netted him another 4.8 points. Peavy had a possible max of 20 points since Bud Black inexplicably turned to Trevor Hoffman to close games and was a win short of getting all 20 (should’ve showed up in that one-game playoff, Jake). So, maybe that’s it. Even the best starting pitchers can only contribute in 4 categories so a great 5-category hitter is more valuable.

What do our rankings say? It says Mr. Peavy is #1 by a healthy margin – 29.4 to 26.2 points. I’ll admit it – we were surprised too. Let’s look at our point allocations by category to explain it:

A-Rod: Runs = 4.9, HR = 8.3, RBI = 6.8, SB=3.2, AVG=3.0
Peavy: K = 6.8, W = 6.2, SV = -0.3, ERA = 9.3, WHIP = 7.4

This comparison is as good an opportunity as any to go over our methodological basis for crediting points (skip over if you’re mathphobic):

Rather than using a 0-5 point scale per category, we mirrored the VORP concept from Baseball Prospectus and created composite stats for what would be the best available option (BAO) at each position – e.g., what are the stats of the 11th best catcher who’d be the next best option post-draft. We then created a team full of these BAOs (kind of like a fantasy expansion team – hell, a team with Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun is much better than the MLB variety) and averaged their stats to create the BAO hitter and BAO pitcher.

We then took the team totals of our ESPN league to come up with relevant increments to award points. Our method would credit players with positive points if they performed above the BAO in a stat and negative points if they performed below (example: Magglio Ordonez was worth 7.7 AVG points while Richie Sexson was worth -4.6 points)

The increments were based on the standard deviation between our 10 teams’ totals which came out to roughly 1-2% of the average team’s total for R, HR, RBI, K, and W. SB and SV turned out around 4% of the average because team totals in these stats tend to be more widely distributed than the other counting stats (related to few players contributing the lion’s share of points – another way of explaining this is to consider the impact of 5 Wins vs. SBs and SVs on your league’s rankings. Wins would prove more valuable.). Lastly, the ratio stats – AVG, ERA, and WHIP – are around 0.5% of the average team’s total as there is much smaller % change between players (e.g., a great hitter hits .350, a bad hitter .250. That’s only a 40% difference. A-Rod hit 150% more HRs than fellow MVP candidate Mike Lowell)

These standard deviations were arbitrarily divided by 6 to create more point differential between players. For ratios, the team totals were multiplied up to reflect an individual player’s impact on the total – so a hitter would have to hit .0144 better than the BAO (assuming all 13 hitters had the same # of ABs) to raise the team’s average by the required .0011.

Lastly, we compared each player to two different types of BAOs: one specific to their position and one general (hitter or pitcher). These results were averaged together and helped to account for the fact that a BAO 1st baseman offers better stats than a BAO catcher so, all stats equal, the catcher is a more valuable hitter. (This topic will be further explored in another post. We’ve only got so much material to stretch over the offseason.)

So now let’s look at Runs vs. K’s to see this methodology in action. These make a good comparison in that the average team totals for these stats (based on our ESPN league) are nearly equal: 1150 runs and 1148 Ks.

A-Rod and Peavy led the majors in these categories (143 Rs and 240 Ks respectively) so ESPN credits each with 5 points. But the BAO hitter (who looks almost exactly like Luis Gonzalez’s stat line of .278/70/15/68/6) had 67 runs where the BAO pitcher (who looks closest to Carlos Villanueva’s season of 8 Ws/1 SV/3.94/1.35/99 K over 114 IP) had 101 K’s.

(Note: That may seem low for K’s but here’s a few other starting pitchers b/w 90 and 110 K’s that certainly saw some fantasy roster space during the season: C. Wang, G. Maddux, B. Sheets, C. Schilling, M. Mussina, J. Marquis)

So A-Rod had 76 more Runs than the BAO hitter and Peavy had 139 K’s more than the BAO in a category where teams had virtually the same average total. Another way of looking at it is that Peavy’s total would represent 20.9% of the average team’s total where A-Rod’s runs would be 12.4%.

The larger differential and impact of Peavy’s K’s vs. A-Rod’s runs are slightly curbed by the fact that Runs have a lower standard deviation which leads to crediting a point for 15.1 runs and 18.1 K’s. This nets out to 4.9 points for A-Rod’s Runs vs. 6.8 for Peavy’s K’s.

Peavy’s impact on Wins is similar to his impact in K’s and A-Rod’s HR and RBI totals net him 8.3 and 6.8 points respectively. His 24 SBs net him 3.2 points. (If anything, the ESPN total screws him – how could 24 SBs be worth only 1.5 points of 5 points, with 0 SBs equaling 0 points, given the average team only had 162 SBs?)

So it all comes down to the ratio stats (AVG, ERA, WHIP) to determine the winner.

Let’s look at A-Rod’s AVG first. To determine the impact, we start with a lineup made exclusively of BAO hitters. This group hits .2772. If we replace one BAO with A-Rod, the average goes up to .2806 – a difference of 0.0034. In addition, A-Rod had 583 ABs compared to our BAO’s 482 ABs. So A-Rod’s average has a greater impact than just 1/13th (it becomes worth about 1/11th). To account for this, we multiply his points by his # of ABs / BAO ABs (1.2). After accounting for the fact that the 3B BAO hits for a slightly higher average (.279), A-Rod’s batting average nets him 2.8 points.

Now let’s look at Peavy’s MLB-leading 2.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Adding him to a BAO team (5 starters + 4 relievers with removing a BAO composite of the two) changes the team ERA/WHIP from 3.960/1.315 to 3.719/1.272. This is a net decrease of 0.241 in ERA and 0.043 in WHIP.

How huge is this? Well, looking at our league, this would be the number of points gained in ERA by deducting .241 (1 team – 5 pts, 2 teams – 4 pts, 2 teams – 3 pts, 3 teams - 2 pts, 1 team – 1 pt, 1 team – 0 pts). If you factor in that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams had a maximum of 0, 1 , and 2 points to gain respectively, you can see that at a MINIMUM, Jake Peavy’s ERA would’ve gained a team 2 points and more likely 3+. The WHIP difference is similar in impact.

Now we compared Peavy against our BAO pitcher who is a composite of the best pitcher available. This could be a starter or reliever. What if we compared him against strictly the BAO starter (the 51st best starter)? This would reduce the impact of Peavy’s Wins and K’s but would actually INCREASE the impact of his ERA and WHIP. Why? Because starters pitch more innings than relievers and tend to give up more runs and baserunners. The BAO starter has an ERA of 4.15 and WHIP of 1.34 (closest comparison – Carlos Silva) where the BAO reliever is at an ERA of 3.31 and WHIP of 1.24. Compared to the BAO Starter, his ERA is worth 9.9 ‘position points’ but 8.6 ‘player points’ for an average of 9.3 points.

In summary, we would say Jake Peavy was the MVP of 2007 Fantasy Baseball (5x5, MLB Universe) over A-Rod. While A-Rod had two high contributing categories (HR and RBI), one strong (Runs), and two above average (SB and AVG), Peavy has four high contributing categories with his ERA and WHIP point total of 16.7 dwarfing his closest competitors (Santana = 11.3, Sabathia = 11.2).

While we wouldn’t have the nut sack to draft Peavy #1 in a 2008 draft (pitching is less predictable than hitting), he’d be our choice for #1 in a ‘hindsight’ draft. And if you can’t even manage 20/20 hindsight, how can you expect to see clearly into the future...
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Top 10 Closers 2007

1. J.J. Putz
6-1/82/1.38/0.70, 40 saves
The six wins really puts Putz (stutter much?) in first. Don't get caught up in the rankings for the closers, because really any of the closers in the top ten would have done you just fine. Hate to shortchange Putz, but it's something to chew on, perhaps. You're really going after saves here, and 40 from Putz was good. Frankly, I would've taken a Tagamet and Todd Jones's 38 saves.

2. Takashi Saito
2-1/78/1.40/0.72, 39 saves
Looks like Broxton didn't take over this year as every expert predicted. There's something to not being able to read what the media is writing. Other than the four less wins, Saito was just as good as Putz.

3. Joe Nathan
4-2/77/1.88/1.02, 37 saves
He might have the absolutely lamest name. His stuff is nasty, yet his name is Joe Nathan? From now on, Joe Nathan will be known as Taipei Slinklo. It is significant only in its randomness. But for someone who is as vanilla as Joe Nathan, he needs some random ethnicity. "Hey, Taipei Slinklo, you gonna save this game?" "Pho sho!" What, Taipei is a ridiculous name? And Boof isn't?

4. Jonathan Papelbon
1-3/84/1.85/0.77, 37 saves
The Pinero experiment lasted until about third inning of the first intrasquad game. Timlin was the closer for about as long as it takes a Yankee fan to get beat up in the Cask. The Sox didn't even know what they had in Okajima, so they reluctantly handed the ball back to Papelbon. Um, it worked out okay. I would love for nothing else but to see Papelbon fail just so he stops dancing. Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to happen any time soon. Then again, with closers, you never know. *Fingers crossed*


5. Francisco Rodriguez, 40 saves
5-2/90/2.81/1.25
Any day now Scot Shields is going to take over, right? No, maybe not. K-Rod's mechanics make scouts squirm, yet he's still right here, year after year. As Rex Hudler says, "K-Rod's born for the job!" Okay, maybe Hud didn't say exactly that, but something equally inane was said. Smoke another doobie, Hud!

6. Jose Valverde
1-4/78/2.66/1.12, 47 saves
Frankly, he's number one in my mind. I <3 Valverde. You draft closers for saves and no one gave you more than Valverde. Were they all pretty? Yup, they actually were. The blown saves weren't. He gave up seven of his season's 19 earned runs in two appearances. Seeing one of these games and knowing how he was prone to breakdown in previous seasons, I traded him on June 1st for a seemingly powerless, suddenly-over-the-hill Abreu. I assumed Valverde would breakdown and Abreu would return to past glory. The trade almost didn't go through because everyone (except Abreu's owner) felt the same way as me. Abreu ended up giving me 89/14/78/16/.303 in 104 games. Meanwhile, Valverde pitched great in the 2nd half notching 28 saves. Because the way saves bunched up in this league, I would've wrapped up the league with two weeks to play if I had kept Valverde over Abreu. In the end, I still won the league on the last day of the season, but I had to scramble for saves for three months straight (even signing Valverde's backup, Tony Pena, at one point). As William Goldman says, "No one knows anything."

7. Bobby Jenks
3-5/56/2.77/0.89, 40 saves
Two body types for pitchers, tall and slender and tall and fat. The tall and fat ones are on everyone's list to get injured, while the tall and slender ones are the ones that do get injured. The tall and fat ones end up pitching until they are forty-five. Just sayin'. Probably took some Jenks-sized balls to draft him, but if you did, good for you. Why don't you shine your balls and put them on your mantle? Now go get your shinebox!

8. Francisco Cordero
0-4/86/2.98/1.11, 44 saves
Cordero lost his job in Texas in '06. Makes me think of Dr. Dre's The Watcher, "You'd probably move to a new house on a new hill..." Weird how saves bounce around, isn't it? Another reason why you don't draft closers too high. Cordero is actually artificially low in these rankings because he went 0-4. You drafted him for saves, not wins. Stop bitchin', you made out a'ight. Sorry, feeling gangsta.

9. Trevor Hoffman
4-5/44/2.98/1.12, 42 saves
Still collecting saves, still entering the game to an old-ass song. Old is as old does. As long as he can still throw a changeup that is somehow slower than his fastball, he'll be all right. His numbers would look even better if it weren't for the three runs he gave up in a third of an inning in the final game of the season.

10. Billy Wagner
2-2/80/2.63/1.13, 34 saves
By September, he looked gray and lifeless like a dirty water hot dog. Being the proud of Wagner on two different teams, I wanted Heilman to take over. Not because I had Heilman, but simply so Wagner would stop giving up runs. He was making Alfredo Amezaga look like an Alfredo Griffin circa 1979 when he co-won the AL ROY with John Castino. Since this will be the third ever mention of John Castino on the internet, maybe he can write in when he Google stalks himself. Hope your back's feeling better!
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